2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Overvalued Report Review (#14 Marlon Mack)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#14) RB Marlon Mack, Indianapolis
2019 Commentary = Last year he was a top ‘undervalued’ player for us, and that went well after a slow start…and, now, I move him to the overvalued camp. I’m not 100% against Mack. I think he’s good, but he should not be the lead dog of a backfield. He should be in an RBBC situation, and I think HC Frank Reich has RBBC leanings after working with RBBC Master Doug Pederson. I have questions on Mack’s physical sturdiness to carry a big workload. I have questions on why Mack isn’t seeing more passing game work (1.3 catches per game last year). I have questions on Spencer Ware and Nyheim Hines taking away too many touches to justify Mack as an RB1-1.5 hopeful. I’m not crazy-against Mack, I just don’t think you should pay the price with the risks on the table and other options available in the same price range – like Leonard Fournette or Derrick Henry.
2020 Ruling = Solid win.
Marlon Mack was very much in demand after a solid 2018 with a strong finish. He was a hoped for RB1 who was trading at RB1.5 pricing. In his same ADP range was Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry, who guided to get and both finished top 10 in PPR PPG…while Mack was the #24 PPR PPG RB in 2019 – he didn’t give a good ROI and we pointed out the better plays and we were spot on with it.
2019 OVERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record on ‘the call’):
#1) Ronald Jones (win) 1-0-0
#2) Kalen Ballage (win) 2-0-0
#3) T.J. Hockenson (win) 3-0-0
#4) Delanie Walker (win) 4-0-0
#5) Damien Williams (win) 5-0-0
#6) Miles Sanders (loss) 5-1-0
#7) Robby Anderson (win) 6-1-0
#8) David Montgomery (win) 7-1-0
#9) James Washington (win) 8-1-0
#10) James Conner (win) 9-1-0
#11) Seattle DST (win) 10-1-0
#12) Aaron Rodgers (win) 11-1-0
#13) JuJu Smith Schuster (win) 12-1-0
#14) Marlon Mack (win) 13-1-0
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