2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Overvalued Report Review (#15 Chris Carson)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#15) RB Chris Carson, Seattle
2019 Commentary = If Carson is jammed 18-20+ touches a game this year, he’ll be an RB2 in PPR…RB1 threat in non-PPR. I think there are several issues seeing Carson as an RB1-2 this season. They include: (1) Carson is just not that talented. One of the slowest, worst starting RBs in the NFL. He does run tough…I just feel like this is an Alex Collins hoax/bubble that could get popped in 2019. (2) His backup, Rashaad Penny is exponentially more talented and ready to be a three-down star…worst case is they are splitting touches this year in the 50-50 range. And when Seattle sees more Penny, game over for Carson. (3) Even Carson as the lead…he’s not a good receiver, so his receiving numbers are not going to help him in anyway. I avoid Carson at almost all costs.
2020 Ruling = Ending a great season of Overvalued calls with a loss.
I’m not a Chris Carson fan…and ‘yes’ he missed time/was injured so I could try to claim a win but I should take the loss. I keep calling for Carson’s demise and Pete Carroll keeps giving him carries no matter how many times he fumbles. It’s inexplicable, but it’s also reality – Carson was key when he played and I called for a bust/Penny takeover and neither was true, so I’ll take the hit.
We ended up with a 13-2-0 mark on Overvalued calls #1-15…and they are as critical to fantasy strategy as the Undervalued calls but harder to ‘feel’ because you didn’t live through the pain of rolling with these players. Like a guardian angel, you’ll never know the trouble we spared you from here.
On the Undervalued top 15 we ended 7-6-2…not great. I like to be at 70% ‘right’ calls on these against-the-tide/contrarian projections to stay ahead of the crowd. I was 54% on the Undervalued. 87% right on the Overvalued….and, yes, 71% combined ‘right’ with both reports. Pretty good, but that 54% Undervalued aggravates me. We’ll do 75%+ ‘right’ in 2020 to make up for it.
2019 OVERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record on ‘the call’):
#1) Ronald Jones (win) 1-0-0
#2) Kalen Ballage (win) 2-0-0
#3) T.J. Hockenson (win) 3-0-0
#4) Delanie Walker (win) 4-0-0
#5) Damien Williams (win) 5-0-0
#6) Miles Sanders (loss) 5-1-0
#7) Robby Anderson (win) 6-1-0
#8) David Montgomery (win) 7-1-0
#9) James Washington (win) 8-1-0
#10) James Conner (win) 9-1-0
#11) Seattle DST (win) 10-1-0
#12) Aaron Rodgers (win) 11-1-0
#13) JuJu Smith Schuster (win) 12-1-0
#14) Marlon Mack (win) 13-1-0
#15) Chris Carson (loss) 13-2-0
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