2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Overvalued Report Review (#2 Kalen Ballage)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#2) RB Kalen Ballage, Miami
2019 Commentary = I get that it seems like Ballage is in the mix to be a starter, but come on…trading in redrafts ahead of LeSean McCoy? Ballage is a ‘mirage’ (you like that? just came up with it by accident). He seems like the perfect RB specimen (size and 4.4+ speed) but he has little feel for running the ball professionally…not in instincts, vision, or maneuvers – he’s just run straight and fast, which is great if he has a wide open hole but 99% of the time he doesn’t and he just runs up the backs of blockers or into tacklers. He also seems half clueless in the passing game running routes, etc. He won’t fully beat out Drake, and if he is forced to start due to injuries elsewhere…he’ll tend to disappoint. I think Miami will add a veteran RB during cutdown day in September. I’d take Justin Jackson, Tony Pollard, Devin Singletary, Jaylen Samuels among others ahead of Ballage (but they all trade behind him as of this writing). I’m just betting against Ballage, that’s all.
2020 Ruling = Well, that was on the money. Easy ‘win’.
We forget that Ballage was getting pretty hot in August 2019 in redraft/dynasty rankings and ADP. He was the RB to own for Miami in August 2019. I spit in the face of that notion the entire time, and it was dead on reasoning. There’s the ‘great calls’ on some player rising to power out of nowhere but too often lost in the FFM shuffle, one of our great strengths – keeping you away from the lethal landmines. Hard to assign credit for avoiding something because we couldn’t feel how bad it would have been. Spending anything on a flyer on Ballage was bad business preseason 2019.
2019 OVERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record):
#1) Ronald Jones (win) 1-0-0
#2) Kalen Ballage (win) 2-0-0
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package will be available soon (June 1st target date) the 2020 player scoring projections, valuations/rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc. -- all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
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