2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Overvalued Report Review (#3 T.J. Hockenson)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#3) TE T.J. Hockenson, Detroit
2019 Commentary = Again, everyone has Rookie Derangement Syndrome… And on top of that most of the masses have tight end deficit attention syndrome -- because most fantasy GMs don’t care about tight ends like they adore RBs and WRs and know all about the QBs…the TEs are always a mystery to them, and thus overlooked and undervalued. People will take the wildest gambles at tight end to start their redraft season and not lose a wink of sleep because they ‘know’ they can just go find one off of waivers if they need to replace a problem (even though the talent pool is always shallow). Yet, they will bite their nails down to their knuckles worrying about their 2nd-3rd-4th RBs on their roster every day of the FF-season…the one position that gives us a bountiful harvest of replacement and replenishment off waivers every week or two. With that, people will take a flyer on TJH this redraft year because they don’t really care about the TE position and MAYBE Hockenson can be that next ‘Gronk’? Spoiler Alert: he’s not. He’s an average tight end talent/prospect, known mostly for his blocking (this is great for fantasy how?…and it’s not really true anyway) going to a team/offense that’s a bottom tier passing game that doesn’t really push the tight end! What could go wrong? Fantasy GMs have been suckered by the media once again.
2020 Ruling = Chalk up another ‘win’.
After Week 1 last season, TJH had a big game vs. ARI and everyone went wild…and I received a few ‘nice call, idiot’ emails as people held to their Hockenson belief system spoon-fed to them by the fawning NFL/FF media/analysts. Most non-FFMers/the masses were on board with TJH in the preseason and then they were all the way the hell in on him after Week 1. It would be a few weeks before everyone of us realized how bad the Arizona defense was against TEs…and thus the ONE good Hockenson game of 2019.
After Week 1, Hockenson disappeared for fantasy…ending the FF 2019 season as a TE3…and not ‘next Gronk’, as the media all howled about in the preseason. Where have all those people gone? They assured us he was ‘next Gronk’ for fantasy right away…and they KNEW they were right after Week 1. I can’t seem to find any of them today.
I was way right, for both fantasy and NFL scouting here, and THEY were wrong about another top TE prospect. The top TE drafted in the NFL for the past 5+ years has been a huge disappointment…yet, we’ll listen with rabbit ears on their Cole Kmet enthusiasm. Will we ever learn not to worry about when 100.0% of THEM agree on scouting matters…that it’s likely wrong?
2019 OVERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record):
#1) Ronald Jones (win) 1-0-0
#2) Kalen Ballage (win) 2-0-0
#3) T.J. Hockenson (win) 3-0-0
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package will be available soon (June 1st target date) the 2020 player scoring projections, valuations/rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc. -- all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
Our 2020 In-Season coverage (weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) will be available for pre-purchase with the Draft Guide launch, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins.
Purchase In-Season and Draft Guide as a COMBO to save a few bucks and get all set up in one session.
-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. Special Devy scouting/reports in the summer. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.
-- The debut season of our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball is now available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.
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