2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Overvalued Report Review (#5 Damien Williams)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#5) RB Damien Williams, Kansas City
8/23 UPDATE: I think Damien Williams’s issues has caused this sudden RBBC plan and rise of rookie Darwin Thompson getting touches. The Chiefs have to be pissed at something with Williams because you don’t go from ‘the guy’ to RBBC and fading because you missed a few practices. I don’t know if Damien did or said something or if a suspension is looming that KC knows about ahead…but something stinks here, and I want no part of it.
Original June Comments: If I knew Damien Williams would be the main carry RB all year for the Chiefs…I’m ‘in’ – an RB1 in PPR and non, for sure. I just don’t believe that’s going to be the case. I cannot believe a running back who has never been a lead anywhere, who got forced into the role late last season due to not one but multiple injuries to RBs, is now the Chiefs future at tailback. It doesn’t make sense when he is more of a receiving/relief back, in general. Williams works in a pinch, but I don’t think he’s the lead guy the next 3-5 years. I might be a bigger believer if the Chiefs hadn’t signed multi-year lead back, and quite talented Carlos Hyde. Best case, this is a split backfield to some degree…meaning Williams would be hard-pressed to be an RB1. Worst case, Hyde shows he is a lead dog, and Williams is in a 70-30 split, and Williams is the 30. If Williams was trading as the #24-30 RB odd the boards, I’d think him an undervalued hopeful…but him fully priced as the #10-15 RB off the boards? I’m not paying that fully priced in assumption he’s the clear RB1 here. Better bargains with less question marks out there.
2020 Ruling = Another ‘win’/correct call.
Damien Williams was so bad last season that he was being dropped by Week 4-5-6 in many 12-team and even 14-team leagues. He did nothing until a surprise good game (off one big play) Week 9 (which most people sat him for if he was even on a roster). He has decent games Week 16-17, but by them the damage was done – one good week in the first 15 weeks = not good for fantasy. Another proper overvalued call by FFM.
2019 OVERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record on ‘the call’):
#1) Ronald Jones (win) 1-0-0
#2) Kalen Ballage (win) 2-0-0
#3) T.J. Hockenson (win) 3-0-0
#4) Delanie Walker (win) 4-0-0
#5) Damien Williams (win) 5-0-0
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