2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Overvalued Report Review (#8 David Montgomery)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#8) RB David Montgomery, Chicago
2019 Commentary = I’m not a fan of Montgomery’s, as a talent assessor. Didn’t like anything I saw in my studies. Thought he was a slow starter/no great burst out of the backfield…which led to his low yards per carry numbers in college, and while he has good hands…he’s so slow getting out of the backfield and turning into his cuts he’ll get eaten alive by linebackers in the NFL that almost all tested as fast/faster than him. Montgomery’s measurables were borderline terrible…that’s why he fell in the draft. He is good at full speed avoiding tackles, but I cannot believe the PFF numbers that he’s the greatest avoider of tackles in their studies…I didn’t see it, but then again most of their listed RBs on that metric aren’t anything special. I believe Montgomery is not better than Mike Davis in any single category you could propose – Davis is more of an athlete, bigger/stronger, more experience, better hands, etc. Mike Davis will start with Tarik Cohen and Montgomery will be mostly a nonfactor in 2019. Montgomery’s hot ADP is all predicated on he will be the clear starter for the Bears…that will not happen unless Mike Davis gets hurt, and then if Montgomery is starting…everyone will see what they wasted their draft capital on. Arguably will be the most overrated guy this preseason.
2020 Ruling = Maybe my most satisfying win of all my 2019 preseason calls.
EVERYONE (but me) was so sure David Montgomery was the next big thing…he was going RB1-1.5 by late August, the #1 rookie RB off many boards (ahead of Josh Jacobs in some instances). Montgomery was white hot to be the main starter for the Bears.
Well, you know how that turned out – exactly like I thought. He WAS the main back and he did SUCK royally. I took a lot of preseason heat for this with everyone telling me my scouting was bad. A year later, most people now agree with me from 2019. You’re welcome.
2019 OVERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record on ‘the call’):
#1) Ronald Jones (win) 1-0-0
#2) Kalen Ballage (win) 2-0-0
#3) T.J. Hockenson (win) 3-0-0
#4) Delanie Walker (win) 4-0-0
#5) Damien Williams (win) 5-0-0
#6) Miles Sanders (loss) 5-1-0
#7) Robby Anderson (win) 6-1-0
#8) David Montgomery (win) 7-1-0
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package will be available soon (June 1st target date) the 2020 player scoring projections, valuations/rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc. -- all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
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