2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Undervalued Report Review (#1 Kyler Murray)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#1) QB Kyler Murray, Arizona
2019 Commentary = Likely going wire-to-wire as the most undervalued/best value fantasy asset of 2019…at least until the experts start to wake up to what’s happening with him (probably in mid-August).
A generational fantasy talent (great passer + great runner for a QB) meets a team/coach/philosophy that wants to set offensive records. It’s the most amazing scenario of a player landing in the perfect spot at the perfect time…the best in NFL/FF history.
Murray should be a 1st-round pick in all formats, but he barely tracks as a QB1 for most fantasy rankers…because they fear the unknown – which is why they missed Patrick Mahomes last year. They only get behind players they’ve seen work/put up the numbers…especially on QBs. Let their ignorance and fear be your ticket to a great fantasy season. We’re building fantasy plans around Kyler + related things on the Cardinals, get onboard.
2020 Ruling = NEUTRAL
I toyed with whether to call this a win or a loss, so I’ll put as a conflicted ‘neutral’/tie.
Yes, he was undervalued. Yes, he ended up a QB1 in PPG and #7 in total pts among QBs (4pts per pass TD) – while he traded as a QB2 most of 2019 preseason. On the other hand, I expected more. We got bits and pieces of something great but didn’t get the consistent fireworks I expected.
We might get the guy I described last year in 2020…I might have been a year early. His ADP preseason 2020 is on fire. People are on the train now, but last year they wouldn’t fully commit. We were kinda right and kinda wrong with him – but I’ll say ‘neutral’ because we have a case for and against making this big undervalued proclamation.
2019 UNDERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record):
#1) Kyler Murray (loss) 0-0-1 record
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package will be available soon (June 1st target date) the 2020 player scoring projections, valuations/rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc. -- all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
Our 2020 In-Season coverage (weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) will be available for pre-purchase with the Draft Guide launch, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins.
Purchase In-Season and Draft Guide as a COMBO to save a few bucks and get all set up in one session.
-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. Special Devy scouting/reports in the summer. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.
-- The debut season of our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball is now available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.
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