2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Undervalued Report Review (#11 LeSean McCoy)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#11) RB LeSean McCoy, Kansas City
2019 Commentary = I’m not saying McCoy is still a top NFL RB and is going to be an RB1 in Buffalo in 2019. I get several things about this situation…I know McCoy is overrated (look at his career seasons). I know he wasn’t FF-great last year. I know Buffalo has a bad offense for McCoy to work in. BUT, he’s not the #35-45 RB in 2019 redrafts…as his ADP in late-July is saying he is. This is the main RB for an NFL team…that’s worth something alone. It’s also a team that has to ride him. It’s also a team that has aged Frank Gore and rookie question mark Devin Singletary to compete with…which is no real competition for the established McCoy. The BONUS is McCoy’s in the last year of a deal and might be cut or traded before or mid-season, and then his value really flies…because part of our collective souring on him is ‘Buffalo’. What if he goes to Green Bay or Minnesota or the Chargers, etc.? I’m just saying…
2020 Ruling = A controversial ‘win’…hear me out…
I know you saw the name, and some of you had flashbacks to the hope McCoy had early 2019 season…and then you held on through a blah midseason and he never did seize the starting job for long. You see the name, and if you owned him you’re reliving the pain…and you think this is an big time loss. Those who didn’t have McCoy last year are wondering why this is an instant loss too.
But remember, this is the ‘Undervalued’ Report…looking for assets trading well below current market value and projecting their value to rise exponentially. Isn’t that what happened to McCoy in 2019?
Rewind the tape, when McCoy hit this list in 2019 he was not even or was barely a top 150 redraft player in June/July or August. He was a Buffalo Bill who had two terrible fantasy seasons the prior two years and now the Bills drafted Devin Singletary to go along with Frank Gore. No one cared about McCoy…he was being written off.
My proposal for three months of the preseason summer that he had a high probability to get cut or traded and that he could then land in a great spot and see his value pop…and on August 31st he was cut (to many people’s surprise), and when KC signed him a day later it was a huge event. FFMers who had invested peanuts in him were stoked and/or trading his heat that day. When McCoy was a top 15 PPR back Weeks 1-4…there was more satisfaction. I started guiding to trade him at that point in-season, to cash out on him…and those who did really made a nice ROI on this nothing investment in redrafts all summer. It was one of the biggest ROI turns of this entire list in reality. So, I like to judge myself tough…but I think a ‘win’ in this spirit is warranted, regardless of him turning out to be an RB3-4 by the end.
2019 UNDERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record):
#1) Kyler Murray (loss) 0-0-1 record
#2) Leonard Fournette (win) 1-0-1 record
#3) Baker Mayfield (loss) 1-1-1
#4) Curtis Samuel (loss) 1-2-1
#5) Darren Waller (win) 2-2-1
#6) Allen Robinson (win) 3-2-1
#7) Tyler Lockett (loss) 3-3-1
#8) Derrick Henry (win) 4-3-1
#9) Patrick Mahomes (neutral) 4-3-2
#10) Justin Jackson (loss) 4-4-2
#11) LeSean McCoy (win) 5-4-2
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package will be available soon (June 1st target date) the 2020 player scoring projections, valuations/rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc. -- all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
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