2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Undervalued Report Review (#13 Jared Goff)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#13) QB Jared Goff, LA Rams
2019 Commentary = The pure insanity of a QB like Goff not even being taken in the 1st-round. It just goes to show what ‘emotion’ and the how the media focus really weighs on valuation…and why I don’t really bother trying to follow THEIR script for redrafts and I just try to draft a round or two ahead of what THEY say…because THEY are mostly ignorant on all things football. Goff’s falling ADP makes me fine with a Murray mid-draft and Goff later as #1-2 punch. In a 6pts per pass TD league, especially with bonuses, if you do not get Goff if you only got Murray first – you’re doing things all wrong. Anyone who takes Carson Wentz ahead of Goff is fooling themselves.
2020 Ruling = I was the fool…a ‘loss’.
The great Rams offensive juggernaut came apart in 2020, and Goff became a QB2…back-end. It wasn’t a devastating loss because he was not any FFMers #1 QB, but as a #2 hoping for an asset to work with – didn’t happen. I still believe Goff is talented, but I’m done with thinking Sean McVay is a genius until further notice and thus I see the Rams as average and Goff goes to good/OK not good/great until further notice.
2019 UNDERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record):
#1) Kyler Murray (loss) 0-0-1 record
#2) Leonard Fournette (win) 1-0-1 record
#3) Baker Mayfield (loss) 1-1-1
#4) Curtis Samuel (loss) 1-2-1
#5) Darren Waller (win) 2-2-1
#6) Allen Robinson (win) 3-2-1
#7) Tyler Lockett (loss) 3-3-1
#8) Derrick Henry (win) 4-3-1
#9) Patrick Mahomes (neutral) 4-3-2
#10) Justin Jackson (loss) 4-4-2
#11) LeSean McCoy (win) 5-4-2
#12) Denver DST (loss) 5-5-2
#13) Jared Goff (loss) 5-6-2
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package will be available soon (June 1st target date) the 2020 player scoring projections, valuations/rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc. -- all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
Our 2020 In-Season coverage (weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) will be available for pre-purchase with the Draft Guide launch, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins.
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