2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Undervalued Report Review (#14 Courtland Sutton)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#14) WR Courtland Sutton, Denver
2019 Commentary = Sutton is one of the best ‘pure’ WR prospects I’ve scouted the past few years – size, athleticism, hands, heart/mind/movement of a #1 WR in the NFL. Most of what I predicted would happen with Sutton happened last year – worked his way into the starting lineup quickly and I felt Sutton would be so good that he would force Demaryius Thomas out/off the team, and that happened as well. What I really got right, sadly, was what scared me on Sutton last year and this year and for the future – weak QB play. Joe Flacco is an upgrade, for sure, but I was hoping for a great young QB who would advance the Denver passing game…we don’t have that (and Drew Lock is headed for failure), AND we have a new, old-school coaching staff who will likely want to run the ball a bunch. There are things to fear about Sutton not going higher than a WR2…but then I see he’s trading as a WR4? Are you crazy? The #1 WR for a team, a guy with a ton of talent with a decent-ish QB? Gotta be worth more than a WR4. If Flacco leans on him…he could be a WR1.5 this season. Sutton’s a top 25 WR not a top 50 WR…one with top 15 potential.
2020 Ruling = A clean ‘win’.
It was hard to believe my stance that Sutton was near-lock to be a #1 WR in the NFL material a year ago, but there are no doubters now…just Drew Lock doubters (and I am one) for his FF upside. Sutton was trending as a WR1 for a bit in 2019 and wound up a solid WR1.5-2.0 in FF scoring. He was trading as a WR4+ last preseason…an easy to get WR in any redraft, and most of us got him and prospered.
2019 UNDERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record):
#1) Kyler Murray (loss) 0-0-1 record
#2) Leonard Fournette (win) 1-0-1 record
#3) Baker Mayfield (loss) 1-1-1
#4) Curtis Samuel (loss) 1-2-1
#5) Darren Waller (win) 2-2-1
#6) Allen Robinson (win) 3-2-1
#7) Tyler Lockett (loss) 3-3-1
#8) Derrick Henry (win) 4-3-1
#9) Patrick Mahomes (neutral) 4-3-2
#10) Justin Jackson (loss) 4-4-2
#11) LeSean McCoy (win) 5-4-2
#12) Denver DST (loss) 5-5-2
#13) Jared Goff (loss) 5-6-2
#14) Courtland Sutton (win) 6-6-2
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package will be available soon (June 1st target date) the 2020 player scoring projections, valuations/rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc. -- all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
Our 2020 In-Season coverage (weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) will be available for pre-purchase with the Draft Guide launch, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins.
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-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. Special Devy scouting/reports in the summer. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.
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