2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Undervalued Report Review (#15 Lamar Jackson)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#15) QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
2019 Commentary = Especially undervalued in 4pts per pass TD leagues – LJax should lead all QBs in rushing yards and rush TDs. A high probability 1,000+ yard rusher if he plays all 16 games with 10+ rushing TDs is on the table. If he hits those rushing numbers and throws for about 200 yards a game with 20 TD passes on the season – he’s going to push 300+ FF points in a season, which would make him a top 10 fantasy QB (in 4pts per pass TD leagues). He trades in the #15-20 ADP range among QBs. He’s also great for Best Ball because of his potential ‘spike’ games with his potential 100+ rushing efforts and 1-2 rush TD games he will pop from time-to-time. So-so/weak for the NFL (and that’s the risk…he gets exposed)…but hot for fantasy. A great #2 QB in 4pts per pass TD leagues because he’s a top 10-12/safe play week-to-week…with rushing/scoring spikes. Baltimore is pretty much locked in with him for 2019. 2020…we’ll see.
2020 Ruling = Epic win for 2019.
I just about called all his numbers last year on point/exactly, except about 10 passing TDs shy! Those of you that made Lamar a cheap #2 QB to see how he materialized…what an ROI you/we got. Not much more to say – when you draft a QB at the end of a redraft and he’s the #2 scorer in all of fantasy and the league MVP…you definitely hit the holy grail of undervalued assets.
2019 UNDERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record):
#1) Kyler Murray (loss) 0-0-1 record
#2) Leonard Fournette (win) 1-0-1 record
#3) Baker Mayfield (loss) 1-1-1
#4) Curtis Samuel (loss) 1-2-1
#5) Darren Waller (win) 2-2-1
#6) Allen Robinson (win) 3-2-1
#7) Tyler Lockett (loss) 3-3-1
#8) Derrick Henry (win) 4-3-1
#9) Patrick Mahomes (neutral) 4-3-2
#10) Justin Jackson (loss) 4-4-2
#11) LeSean McCoy (win) 5-4-2
#12) Denver DST (loss) 5-5-2
#13) Jared Goff (loss) 5-6-2
#14) Courtland Sutton (win) 6-6-2
#15) Lamar Jackson (win) 7-6-2
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