2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Undervalued Report Review (#2 Leonard Fournette)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#2) RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville
2019 Commentary = Does anyone remember when Leonard Fournette was supposed to be the greatest RB prospect we’d ever seen? A monster-sized man with stunning speed for his size…and power for days. He was pretty terrific as a rookie – 1,040 yards rushing in 13 games with 10 total TDs. Despite a terrible offense and a defense stacked to stop him, he put up numbers…and he caught passes – 2.8 catches per game in 2017 and in 2018. His crime in 2018…getting hurt right away and then returning with an offensive line completely stripped bare due to injury; and the ‘brilliant’ Cody Kessler at QB. Fournette returns totally healthy in 2019…with his top O-Line from 2017 back (for the most part)…with a giant upgrade at QB. How is Fournette going to fail in 2019? I’d argue he is one of the handful of guys who could lead all RBs in all scoring formats in fantasy scoring – he’s that good. One of the best RB talents in all of football with NO competition for touches AND in the best surrounding offensive circumstances he’s ever been in pro or college…yeah, I like him a lot trading as an RB1.5-2.0.
2020 Ruling = WIN
A year ago, people were ‘done’ with Fournette to some degree. Coming off the injury in 2018, missing the 1st-half of the season with a quad and then returning to be solid but not spectacular. Like with all rookies…a year later the new car smell wears off. Rookies in their year two and three, they’re downright hated in many cases…all of us chasing the next big, fresh thing.
We were buying Fournette as a strong RB1 candidate preseason 2019 and he became one. #9 in PPR points per game among RBs for 2019. Had he just doubled his measly 3 rushing TDs on the season, he would have been top 6 among RBs. He scored just 3 rushing TDs, but he was stuffed at the goal line about 17 times otherwise.
He played all 16 games (to your shock) and had the 6th-most PPR points total (Weeks 1-16) among RBs in 2019.
Fournette became a reliable RB1 in 2019 and in August 2018, almost no one thought that would be the case among the mainstream.
2019 UNDERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record):
#1) Kyler Murray (loss) 0-0-1 record
#2) Leonard Fournette (win) 1-0-1 record
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package will be available soon (June 1st target date) the 2020 player scoring projections, valuations/rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc. -- all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
Our 2020 In-Season coverage (weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) will be available for pre-purchase with the Draft Guide launch, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins.
Purchase In-Season and Draft Guide as a COMBO to save a few bucks and get all set up in one session.
-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. Special Devy scouting/reports in the summer. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.
-- The debut season of our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball is now available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.
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