2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Undervalued Report Review (#3 Baker Mayfield)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#3) QB Baker Mayfield, Cleveland
2019 Commentary = Trades as a redraft #3-7 QB off the board, #50-75 pick overall (early summer 2019)…but could wind up to be the top player in all of fantasy.
I would argue that Baker Mayfield is the single best QB in the NFL/for fantasy. Tom Brady is who you want in the Super Bowl, but Week’s 1-17…you might want Mayfield now, and then soon you’d want him in any given week. You might argue for Patrick Mahomes, and you would be justified in doing so…but I think the difference between Mahomes and Mayfield, in terms of passer talent is very close.
I’d give the passer-talent edge to Mayfield. I’d give the coaching staff edge (for FF) to Mayfield as well. Freddie Kitchens cuts Mayfield loose. Andy Reid started reigning in Patrick Mahomes a bit 2nd-half of 2018…and in 2019, Mahomes may be without suspended (?) Tyreek for a few weeks to start the campaign.
We could argue Mayfield-Mahomes, and even if we came to a draw on them…Mahomes is the first QB off the board, and late-1st or 2nd-round redraft pick. Mayfield goes #3-4-5-6-7…4-5-6 rounds later – quite a bargain if you think the two of them are similar-great.
In a 6pts per pass TD league, with 300+ yard, etc. performance bonuses…Mayfield might be the #1-2-3 scorer/most valuable in all of fantasy, and you can buy him as a #50-75 pick value overall just because no one has SEEN it yet…not like they SAW it with Mahomes last year. You can buy the future fairly cheap here.
2020 Ruling = LOSS
One of the great losses of my fantasy career. It wasn’t devastating, considering his draft cost (that’s why he was so high on this report in the 2019 preseason) but I really thought I could buy a discount Mahomes for much cheaper redraft prices after watching Baker put up numbers (and great tape) in 2018, but 2019 was a total disaster.
Baker was part of my QB plan of Baker-Kyler and that one of them if not both would be superstars for FF 2019. Kyler was solid but Baker was being dropped midseason. I said he might be the #1 scorer in 6pts per pass TD fantasy, so that was a million miles off.
Three ‘undervalued’ players, our top 3, and a mixed result/judgement so far…not looking good – but we’re about to go on a pretty impressive run of key undervalue calls coming up to redeem ourselves/saved some seasons…as we do.
2019 UNDERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record):
#1) Kyler Murray (loss) 0-0-1 record
#2) Leonard Fournette (win) 1-0-1 record
#3) Baker Mayfield (loss) 1-1-1
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package will be available soon (June 1st target date) the 2020 player scoring projections, valuations/rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc. -- all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
Our 2020 In-Season coverage (weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) will be available for pre-purchase with the Draft Guide launch, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins.
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