2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Undervalued Report Review (#4 Curtis Samuel)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#4) WR Curtis Samuel, Carolina
2019 Commentary = If you’ve been with me for the past year+, you know how I feel here – I think Samuel is one the best WR talents in all the NFL. I also think Carolina/Cam Newton have begrudgingly found that out as well last season.
I think Samuel became the Panthers’ #1 WR mid/late 2018 season. It’s hidden from the masses for a few reasons…
(1) He wasn’t a starter to begin the season, so his 2018 season tallies do not catch anyone’s attention.
(2) Everyone assumes the team wants D.J. Moore as ‘the guy’ and the analyst’s think it’s for sure D.J. Moore as ‘the guy’. All you’ll hear about is Moore this offseason.
(3) The Samuel breakout started happening, the shift to him as Cam’s go-to, and then Cam got hurt and everything changed…the momentum stopped – a la Allen Robinson gaining momentum last year, then Trubisky got nicked up, then ARob got nicked up. I’m telling you; Samuel is a Pro Bowl talent WR who could also be a potential Pro Bowl RB. He showed that in college, truly, more than any player I’ve ever seen/scouted. Samuel’s upside isn’t ‘good’/WR2 – it’s ‘great’/WR1. Only Norv Turner can stop this…and that’s a real threat.
2020 Ruling = LOSS
I flirted with calling this a ‘neutral’ but it’s not…it’s a loss. Not a bad loss, but a loss. He was trading as a WR3 in the preseason and he ended up a WR3 for 2019 in the end…so, not terrible -- but this is the ‘undervalued’ report, not the exact value report. I pushed him as a WR2 with WR1.0-1.5+ upside that never materialized. I could (and will) blame it on Kyle Allen but it happened. He didn’t beat his predicted value in 2019, so I have to say I was wrong I guess.
That’s two ‘losses’ on my first four ‘undervalued’ predictions…not good. But the run of consecutive season changing calls starts tomorrow!
2019 UNDERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record):
#1) Kyler Murray (loss) 0-0-1 record
#2) Leonard Fournette (win) 1-0-1 record
#3) Baker Mayfield (loss) 1-1-1
#4) Curtis Samuel (loss) 1-2-1
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package will be available soon (June 1st target date) the 2020 player scoring projections, valuations/rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc. -- all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
Our 2020 In-Season coverage (weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) will be available for pre-purchase with the Draft Guide launch, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins.
Purchase In-Season and Draft Guide as a COMBO to save a few bucks and get all set up in one session.
-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. Special Devy scouting/reports in the summer. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.
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