2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Undervalued Report Review (#5 Darren Waller)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#5) TE Darren Waller, Oakland (then…now Las Vegas)
2019 Commentary = The downside…Waller has been kicking around the league with drug use issues (and was suspended a full year) and injuries for years. The Ravens stuck by him for years and had him back on their practice squad when Oakland stepped in late last year and poached him away, an odd thing to do for so many reasons.
The upside…Well, Waller started getting compliments from Gruden right away and then they put him into games and his first touch was a 21-yard jet sweep where he landed an inch short of a TD on. He got some decent touches the last three games of 2018. Gruden is going crazy for him again in 2019, saying he’s their #1 TE. People don’t want to believe it because Waller has not been trustworthy in the past, but he’s also never gotten this type of treatment. Waller is a top 5 tight end fantasy threat with his 6’6” frame and 4.4+ speed…if he stays healthy and clean off the field.
2020 Ruling = Huge win.
This pre-planning…this belief so strong in Waller allowed FFMers to use all their Rounds 3-14 redraft picks on other things – knowing we were going to get Waller at the end of redrafts. By late August, Matthew Berry had jumped on the train and drove his price to (re)draftable, and suddenly some were actually drafting him/onto him…and we had to start taking him rounds 10-12 (of normal 12-team drafts), and we did. No one had the Waller conviction we did. It’s one thing to throw around ‘could be good’ and ‘sleeper’ – it’s another to plan around it and make it happen, going ‘all in’.
Waller ended up the #5 PPG (PPR) TE in fantasy 2019, and #3 in total FF points (PPR) among TEs…one catch away from passing George Kittle for #2 in most FF points (PPR) in 2019.
This was one of the all-time ‘undervalued’ calls in FFM history – because we didn’t just pay it lip service, we built draft plans around it all summer. Every mock, every piece of advice I gave, every client meeting about 2019 we built around Waller as our starting TE or 2nd TE for a trade/value chip in-season…and it was the right call.
2019 UNDERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record):
#1) Kyler Murray (loss) 0-0-1 record
#2) Leonard Fournette (win) 1-0-1 record
#3) Baker Mayfield (loss) 1-1-1
#4) Curtis Samuel (loss) 1-2-1
#5) Darren Waller (win) 2-2-1
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package will be available soon (June 1st target date) the 2020 player scoring projections, valuations/rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc. -- all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
Our 2020 In-Season coverage (weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) will be available for pre-purchase with the Draft Guide launch, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins.
Purchase In-Season and Draft Guide as a COMBO to save a few bucks and get all set up in one session.
-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. Special Devy scouting/reports in the summer. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.
-- The debut season of our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball is now available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.
Shop the Freshest Sports Apparel Styles from FansEdgeBrowse Products
Sports Apparel, Jerseys and Fan Gear at Fanatics.com Sports ShopBrowse Products
Best Selection of NFL Tickets on StubHub!Browse Products
NFLShop - The Official Online Shop of the NFL!Browse Products
Shop for Authentic Autographed Collectibles at SportsMemorabilia.comBrowse Products
Daily fantasy sports for cash! Play FREE to win millions!Browse Products
15% OFF Authentic Sports and Entertainment Signed Memorabilia!Browse Products
Collect League Dues...for FREE!Browse Products
Shop our Amazon affiliate link and save!Browse Products