2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Undervalued Report Review (#7 Tyler Lockett)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#7) WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle
2019 Commentary = (from an article May 2019) The talent is there with Lockett. He’s not just a deep ball guy only. He started showing bits/flashes of being a trusted #1-like WR in 2018, but the Seattle passing game was so low volume that he couldn’t become a fantasy stud. What he did with the targets he did get – arguably the most efficient WR in fantasy last year. Now, in 2018, Doug Baldwin is retired. His threat for targets are David Moore and D.K. Metcalf…and they are not like Baldwin/like #1 WRs. The ball is firmly in Lockett’s court and he’s close/comfortable with Russell Wilson. Lockett should see a spike in targets with Baldwin gone, but you and I still worry about this sad passing game. Let me make this argument…
Here’s what MIGHT happen to launch Lockett as a WR1 in 2019 – the schedule is exponentially tougher for Seattle this year. Just in-division they have the Rams, but then SF-ARI have gone from Mullens-Rosen to Garoppolo-Kyler/Kingsbury. Seattle will not be able to three yards and a cloud of dust the 49ers or Cardinals. Outside the division they face several topflight QBs as well.
It could be, this season, that Seattle wants to run to nowhere with Chris Carson, but their opponents are going to do what has happened before with Seattle in recent years – make them abandon the run and cut Russell Wilson loose, unplanned/out of desperation -- and when Wilson is loose he’s a top 3 fantasy QB (or used to be) and his top look will be to Lockett…not Metcalf, not any sad TE they have, and not the RBs that much. Lockett is the #1 look for Wilson in the passing game that was #32 in attempts last year…maybe Seattle gets drawn into more shootouts with this 2019 killer schedule and Lockett’s targets double in 2019 (with no Baldwin)? From 4.4 per game to 8+? What if Lockett just jumps his numbers by +25-50%? 5+ catches and 70+ yards per game with 10-12+ TDs? Lockett’s ADP bumped with Baldwin’s retirement, but my pulse on things is – people don’t REALLY believe in him. He’s available cheaper than he should be in most leagues.
2020 Ruling = I have to say ‘loss’
I was going to say ‘neutral’ because Lockett didn’t hurt anyone – we drafted him at WR2 prices, sometimes WR2.5 prices in August and he ended up a back-end WR2. He was cruising as a WR1 the first half of the season and then the wheels fell off. He got dinged up but still played…and kinda disappeared and then reemerged in the playoffs.
In the end, I was seeking a WR1 at WR2 redraft prices and all I got was a WR2…a WR1 for a while then a crushing WR3-4 down the stretch. He didn’t live up to the reason I put him on here – he wasn’t undervalued, he was properly valued. So, I take a humble/sad loss on my call.
2019 UNDERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record):
#1) Kyler Murray (loss) 0-0-1 record
#2) Leonard Fournette (win) 1-0-1 record
#3) Baker Mayfield (loss) 1-1-1
#4) Curtis Samuel (loss) 1-2-1
#5) Darren Waller (win) 2-2-1
#6) Allen Robinson (win) 3-2-1
#7) Tyler Lockett (loss) 3-3-1
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