2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Undervalued Report Review (#8 Derrick Henry)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#8) RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee
2019 Commentary = Henry is not totally overlooked. The fantasy masses like him well enough, some still have a strong urge for him. He trades just inside the top 20 RBs in PPR, and right around #15 among non-PPR RBs. He’s not disliked. Why I believe him to be a bit undervalued – of all the guys not trading/seen/ranked as a RB1s for summer 2019, of the next 12/the RB2 group, I could see two of them leading all of fantasy RBs in scoring…Leonard Fournette in PPR and non-PPR, or Derrick Henry in non-PPR. I think Henry is in for a huge workload in 2019 as he fits what his head coach wants to do like Kyler Murray fits Kliff Kingsbury. On sheer volume alone, Henry should be a top 10 RB this fantasy season. I wouldn’t be surprised if he leads all RBs in TDs this season. An RB1 this season, available for RB1.5-2.0 prices…and he’s a bit better for the passing game than given credit too.
2020 Ruling = A huge ‘win’ for 2019. A salvation play.
It’s easy to forget that Derrick Henry was a mistrusted RB2 who was going in the 4th-round of 12-team redrafts last season. Sometimes as high as late 3rd, sometimes as low as the 5th-round. Henry was a big part of our no RB in the 1st-round early strategy – as we guided a 2nd and 3rd-round or 3rd and 4th-round back-to-back picks of Fournette-Henry to fill your early 2019 backfield. Both ended up PPR RB1s…and Henry, obviously, a revelation (and a top non-PPR RB1). He was definitely undervalued looking back now…and we were on it big time, ahead of time last preseason.
2019 UNDERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record):
#1) Kyler Murray (loss) 0-0-1 record
#2) Leonard Fournette (win) 1-0-1 record
#3) Baker Mayfield (loss) 1-1-1
#4) Curtis Samuel (loss) 1-2-1
#5) Darren Waller (win) 2-2-1
#6) Allen Robinson (win) 3-2-1
#7) Tyler Lockett (loss) 3-3-1
#8) Derrick Henry (win) 4-3-1
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package will be available soon (June 1st target date) the 2020 player scoring projections, valuations/rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc. -- all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
Our 2020 In-Season coverage (weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) will be available for pre-purchase with the Draft Guide launch, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins.
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