2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Undervalued Report Review (#9 Patrick Mahomes)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#9) QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City
2019 Commentary = Early in calendar year 2019, Mahomes was trading as a #12-18 overall player in early redraft/Best Ball formats. After a couple of months of chastising by the fantasy experts, because ‘you can’t take QBs early or you’re dumb’, Mahomes started to fall to the #15-24 overall ADP range. After that, came the football experts who all parroted, “You know Mahomes can’t be that good again this year!” and that sunk him to a #25-35 overall ADP range. I’d argue he’s a top 3-10 asset overall depending upon your scoring system…and especially an argument for the top asset in a 6pts per pass TD league with performance bonuses. The reason stated that he cannot repeat his 2018 is ‘because it’s never happened before’. I could use that logic on about every player in fantasy on everything. I’d argue…we’ve never seen a talent like Mahomes before, in an era that nurtures him for fantasy goodness. Top RBs are up and down every year. The tippy top QBs are consistent and less injury prone…and now they’re young and improving…and better than their predecessors. The football landscape is changing, you cannot use 1900-2017 mindsets as your guide for 2019 projections. It’s apples and hand grenades. As they talk Mahomes down, I’m down to draft him 3rd-round. Gimme Kelce in the 2nd and Mahomes in the 3rd and I’ll build you a winning fantasy team from there at RB-WR, etc.
2020 Ruling = I’m going to call it ‘neutral’
Through the first 6 weeks of the 2019 season, Mahomes was on his way to a 45 passing TD, 5,600+ passing yard (he was averaging 350+ per game through Week 6) season. He was the #1 QB in 6pts per pass TD scoring and had five of 6 games with 300+ yards for those racking bonuses -- but then the ill-fated kneecap event took him away for a few weeks, and came back pretty good but not as high-flying as he began the season.
I’m not going to penalize myself because a guy got hurt when he was amazing prior to the injury. I cannot claim the win, but the logic/reality was playing out pre-injury. So, best to note it as a non-loss/non-win, a ‘neutral’ or no-call.
2019 UNDERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record):
#1) Kyler Murray (loss) 0-0-1 record
#2) Leonard Fournette (win) 1-0-1 record
#3) Baker Mayfield (loss) 1-1-1
#4) Curtis Samuel (loss) 1-2-1
#5) Darren Waller (win) 2-2-1
#6) Allen Robinson (win) 3-2-1
#7) Tyler Lockett (loss) 3-3-1
#8) Derrick Henry (win) 4-3-1
#9) Patrick Mahomes (neutral) 4-3-2
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package will be available soon (June 1st target date) the 2020 player scoring projections, valuations/rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc. -- all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
Our 2020 In-Season coverage (weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) will be available for pre-purchase with the Draft Guide launch, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins.
Purchase In-Season and Draft Guide as a COMBO to save a few bucks and get all set up in one session.
-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. Special Devy scouting/reports in the summer. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.
-- The debut season of our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball is now available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.
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