2020 Week 10 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer)
All game picks ATS with me (RC) picking against The Computer with the THU morning spreads.
My Computer is analyzing/driving off of analysis of the players/units/coaching/matchup game analysis with some historical trending on things – but mostly it is looking at the better teams/matchups to win considering the likely lineups, weather, and injury reports, etc.
I’m looking at The Computer’s data for my picks but also considering my feel for the matchup, my scouting hunches/biases of the two teams, the injury report impacts, and some inputs from Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello along with any other smart handicapping data inputs I come across/discover.
We’re all just trying to find a way to get to the holy grail of 60%+ win ability. We’re all trying to compete in office pools and survivor contests. If I had a 70%+ system guaranteed all the time, I’d consider keeping it to myself. I’m trying to get there, and here’s what I am seeing/playing right now to do it. I’ll adjust as we go, with any injury news, etc. if needed.
Week 9 Results:
The Computer = 7-7-0 overall, 2-3-0 Blazing Five
YTD = 66-65-2 (50.4%) overall, 24-20-1 Blazing Five (54.6%), Survivor Pool…IND(L), ARI(W), ATL (W), BAL (W), KC(L), MIA(W), BUF(W), TB(W), PIT(W)
R.C = 8-6-0 overall, 2-3-0 Blazing Five
YTD = 72-59-2 (55.0% overall), 24-20-1 Blazing Five (54.6%), Survivor Pool…still alive PIT(W), GB(W), IND(W), LAR(W), ARI(W), MIA(W), BUF(W), TB(W), KC(W)
FROM WEEK 5’s INTRO (and obviously I’m sticking with it…kinda): My new theory, a trend really…a simple way of betting you would say. I noticed a little/simple trend through the first 4 weeks and I’m going to follow it to make all picks – keeping it simple and taking a lot of my tape-watching and emotional bias out (because it’s not working/has me flirting +/- 50%). The Computer will stick with making picks based on ‘science’ -- the matchups + injuries + general betting history, etc.
My new simple formula for picking all games is this…
1) Take all the underdogs, regardless of how I feel.
2) Except always take the three definitive (to me) best teams in football no matter what the line is = those three teams are KC, BAL, BUF. (*Update: May drop BUF from this list, too many injuries)
3) And never bet with the single worst team in football…the Jets.
4) I’ll do my Blazing Five from within those pick patterns.
If I followed that theme for the first four weeks of this season, my record ATS would have been…
Week 1 = 10-5-1
Week 2 = 10-6-0
Week 3 = 9-7-0
Week 4 = 10-4-1
I’ll take that outcome…39-22-2 (63.9%).
UPDATE: Week 5 went 10-4-0…so, this is working for now. 49-26-2 overall system.
UPDATE: Week 6 went 9-5-0…so, this is six killer weeks in a row with this. Not changing off of it…except for I have three exceptions this week. 58-31-2 overall system.
UPDATE: Week 7…I, RC, deviated some from my system and I won more than lost on my audible calls. If I had just stuck to my original concept…the concept/system went 8-6-0. Still a winner…and been a winner every week since Week 1. 66-37-2 overall system.
UPDATE: Week 8…I, RC, should’ve just stuck with the system and stop trying to overthink everything. The system this week went 10-4-0…meaning the system has not had a losing record all year in any week. I’m going to stick with the system (unless I cannot help myself!) 76-41-2 overall system.
UPDATE: Week 9…I stuck to the plan with no deviation and went 8-6-0. 79-47-2 overall system (62.7% YTD).
Week 10 PLAN – I plan to stick tight to my system…and the system is = take all dogs except take KC or BAL every time and go against the Jets every time – but strike the last part. The Jets are no longer an auto loss or easy to crush. So, I’m just all dogs except take KC and BAL (and I may drop BAL from that ahead, we’ll see).
IND at TEN (-1.0)
The Computer: IND…a very pick ‘em game that the computer leans with the better defense. Indy by 0.7
RC picks: IND…per my system.
CIN at PIT (-7.5)
The Computer: PIT…assuming Ben is starting, the Steelers may get 10+ sacks in this game. PIT by 8.8.
RC picks: CIN…per my system.
WSH at DET (-3.0)
The Computer: WSH…the best unit on the field is the Washington defense, take the good D with the points. Lions by 1.4.
RC picks: WSH…per my system.
*RC Blazing Five*
HOU at CLE (-3.5)
The Computer: CLE…take the tough run game team in cool, blustery conditions vs. the finesse dome team. Browns by 4.2.
RC picks: HOU…per my system.
JAX at GB (-13.5)
The Computer: GB…you gotta take GB here at home in the cold vs. a Florida-based team. Packers by 15.5.
RC picks: JAX…per my system.
*COMPUTER SURVIVOR PICK*
PHI (-3.5) at NYG
The Computer: PHI…you want to bet on Daniel Jones to win two in-a-row? The Eagles are getting healthier. Philly by 5.2.
RC picks: NYG…per my system.
*RC Blazing Five*
TB (-5.5) at CAR
The Computer: TB…bounce back game with impunity. Bucs by 8.7
RC picks: CAR…per my system.
DEN at LV (-5.0)
The Computer: DEN…if the Denver CBs are playing, they keep it close. Vegas by 4.8.
RC picks: DEN…per my system.
BUF at ARI (-3.0)
The Computer: ARI…reversal of last week. Arizona off a tough loss and Bills coming down from a huge win v. SEA. Cards pull it out by 2.2.
RC picks: BUF…per my system.
*RC Blazing Five*
SEA at LAR (-2.5)
The Computer: SEA…Seattle tries to copy what Miami did to the Rams a few weeks ago. Seattle by 0.2.
RC picks: SEA…per my system.
SF at NO (-9.5)
The Computer: SF…because it makes no sense, the unobvious happens and SF keeps it close and covers. Remember when everyone thought the Saints would get smoked last week? Strange things happen in the NFL every week. NO by 8.6.
RC picks: SF…per my system.
*RC SURVIVOR PICK = NO Saints*
BAL (-7.0) at NE
The Computer: BAL…you can’t bet on Cam and an injured defense. Ravens by 11.9.
RC picks: BAL…per my system.
*RC Blazing Five*
LAC at MIA (-2.5)
The Computer: LAC…Justin Herbert is due to win; he’s been losing games they’ve be up big in for weeks. Miami has been doing the opposite…lucky-ish wins. LAC by 0.2.
RC picks: LAC…per my system.
RC Blazing Five* (FRI Change from CAR)
MIN (-2.5) at CHI
The Computer: CHI…At home on MNF, outdoors cool…take the points. MIN by 0.5.
RC picks: CHI…per my system.
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