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2020 Week 11 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer) *Chg Pick on PIT-JAX, and BAL-TEN*

Date:
November 19, 2020 10:25 AM
November 19, 2020 10:24 AM

2020 Week 11 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer)

 

All game picks ATS with me (RC) picking against The Computer with the THU morning spreads.

My Computer is analyzing/driving off of analysis of the players/units/coaching/matchup game analysis with some historical trending on things – but mostly it is looking at the better teams/matchups to win considering the likely lineups, weather, and injury reports, etc.

I’m looking at The Computer’s data for my picks but also considering my feel for the matchup, my scouting hunches/biases of the two teams, the injury report impacts, and some inputs from Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello along with any other smart handicapping data inputs I come across/discover.

We’re all just trying to find a way to get to the holy grail of 60%+ win ability. We’re all trying to compete in office pools and survivor contests. If I had a 70%+ system guaranteed all the time, I’d consider keeping it to myself. I’m trying to get there, and here’s what I am seeing/playing right now to do it. I’ll adjust as we go, with any injury news, etc. if needed.

 

Week 10 Results:

The Computer = 3-10-1 overall, 1-4-0 Blazing Five

YTD = 69-75-3 (47.9%) overall, 25-24-1 Blazing Five (51.0%), Survivor Pool…IND(L), ARI(W), ATL (W), BAL (W), KC(L), MIA(W), BUF(W), TB(W), PIT(W), GB(W)

 

R.C = 5-8-1 overall, 2-2-1 Blazing Five

YTD = 77-67-3 (53.5% overall), 26-22-2 Blazing Five (54.2%), Survivor Pool…still alive PIT(W), GB(W), IND(W), LAR(W), ARI(W), MIA(W), BUF(W), TB(W), KC(W), NO(W)

 

=========================

Old intro…

FROM WEEK 5’s INTRO (and obviously I’m sticking with it…kinda): My new theory, a trend really…a simple way of betting you would say. I noticed a little/simple trend through the first 4 weeks and I’m going to follow it to make all picks – keeping it simple and taking a lot of my tape-watching and emotional bias out (because it’s not working/has me flirting +/- 50%). The Computer will stick with making picks based on ‘science’ -- the matchups + injuries + general betting history, etc.

My new simple formula for picking all games is this…

1) Take all the underdogs, regardless of how I feel.

2) Except always take the three definitive (to me) best teams in football no matter what the line is = those three teams are KC, BAL, BUF. (*Update: May drop BUF from this list, too many injuries)

3) And never bet with the single worst team in football…the Jets.

4) I’ll do my Blazing Five from within those pick patterns.

 

If I followed that theme for the first four weeks of this season, my record ATS would have been…

Week 1 = 10-5-1

Week 2 = 10-6-0

Week 3 = 9-7-0

Week 4 = 10-4-1

I’ll take that outcome…39-22-2 (63.9%).

======================

 

UPDATE: Week 5 went 10-4-0…so, this is working for now. 49-26-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 6 went 9-5-0…so, this is six killer weeks in a row with this. Not changing off of it…except for I have three exceptions this week. 58-31-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 7…I, RC, deviated some from my system and I won more than lost on my audible calls. If I had just stuck to my original concept…the concept/system went 8-6-0. Still a winner…been a winner every week since Week 1. 66-37-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 8…I, RC, should’ve just stuck with the system and stopped trying to overthink everything. The system this week went 10-4-0…meaning the system has not had a losing record all year in any week. I’m going to stick with the system (unless I cannot help myself!) 76-41-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 9…I stuck to the plan with no deviation and went 8-6-0. 79-47-2 overall system (62.7% YTD).

UPDATE: Week 10…I stuck to the plan with deviation and had my first losing week since following the system. It was the system’s first losing week. Now, the system is 84-55-3 (60.4%).

 

Week 11 PLAN – Just because the system had its first losing week of the season, overall, I’m not changing just because of one week. I’m sticking with the plan, but I have changed it up to only taking KC is a MUST. I’ve dropped Buffalo from the exception list many weeks ago. Now, going into Week 11…I’m dropping the Baltimore must take rule because they are no longer elite in my book. I am still going anti-Jets every time for at least one more week.

So, I’m taking all dogs except always taking KC…and we’ll see how that spins this week.

 

----------------------------------

 

ARI at SEA (-3.0)

The Computer: SEA…Divisional game levels out where SEA wins here. Seattle by 4.1

RC picks: ARI…picking dog no matter what, per my system.

 

PHI at CLE (-3.5)

The Computer: PHI…Browns wins have been fraud wins. Eagles by 6.7

RC picks: PHI…picking dog no matter what, per my system.

*RC BLAZING FIVE PICK*

*Computer B5 pick*

 

ATL at NO (-5.0)

The Computer: ATL…Betting against Winston. Saints by 0.3

RC picks: ATL…picking dog no matter what, per my system.

*RC BLAZING FIVE PICK*

*Computer B5 pick*

 

DET at CAR (-1.5)

The Computer: CAR…Teddy plays, and Carolina puts the Lions down. Panthers by 5.4

RC picks: DET…picking dog no matter what, per my system.

*Computer B5 pick*

 

NE (-2.0) at HOU

The Computer: HOU…Patriots need torrential downpours to win. Texans by 0.1

RC picks: HOU…picking dog no matter what, per my system. 

 

PIT (-10.0) at JAX

The Computer: PIT…Jags have been respectable under Luton, but CJ Henderson out is a killer. Steelers by 11.3

RC picks: PIT…*LATE CHANGE THU* Going w PIT on the news C.J. Henderson is on I.R. for JAX.

 

GB at IND (-1.5)

The Computer: GB…Aaron Rodgers cannot be a dog to this Indy team. Packers by 6.8

RC picks: GB…picking dog no matter what, per my system.

*RC BLAZING FIVE PICK*

*Computer B5 pick*

 

CIN at WSH (-1.5)

The Computer: CIN…Two bad teams, just take the points. Washington by 0.5

RC picks: CIN…picking dog no matter what, per my system.

 

TEN at BAL (-5.5)

The Computer: BAL…Ravens bounce back from fluke rain loss. Ravens by 7.0

RC picks: *SWITCH* BAL...late-breaking injuries with the Titans are too much to go with.

 

DAL at MIN (-7.0)

The Computer: DAL…Oddly, big game for both teams. Dallas stays close enough. Vikes by 5.2

RC picks: DAL…picking dog no matter what, per my system.

 

KC (-7.5) at LV

The Computer: KC…Revenge from their earlier loss to LV. Chiefs by 11.9

RC picks: KC…picking KC no matter what, per my system.

*Computer B5 pick*

 

MIA (-3.5) at DEN

The Computer: DEN…Miami has been playing well, but also had a lot of breaks. They are due for a reversal and the Broncos usually play tough/close. Miami by 3.3

RC picks: DEN…picking dog no matter what, per my system.

 

NYJ at LAC (-8.5)

The Computer: LAC…Jets lost DBs, Lynn has an axe to grind with his old employer. Chargers by 10.2

RC picks: LAC…picking anti-NYJ no matter what, per my system.

*RC BLAZING FIVE PICK*

*RC SURVIVOR PICK*

*Computer Survivor Pick*

 

LAR at TB (-4.0)

The Computer: TB…Better QB, better defense, at home, Rams minus Whitworth. Bucs by 4.6

RC picks: LAR…picking dog no matter what, per my system.

*RC BLAZING FIVE PICK* 



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>