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2020 Week 12 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer) *Updated B5 pick+Update BAL-PIT

Date:
November 26, 2020 12:10 PM
November 26, 2020 12:09 PM

 

2020 Week 12 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer)

 

All game picks ATS with me (RC) picking against The Computer with the THU morning spreads.

My Computer is analyzing/driving off of analysis of the players/units/coaching/matchup game analysis with some historical trending on things – but mostly it is looking at the better teams/matchups to win considering the likely lineups, weather, and injury reports, etc.

I’m looking at The Computer’s data for my picks but also considering my feel for the matchup, my scouting hunches/biases of the two teams, the injury report impacts, and some inputs from Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello along with any other smart handicapping data inputs I come across/discover.

We’re all just trying to find a way to get to the holy grail of 60%+ win ability. We’re all trying to compete in office pools and survivor contests. If I had a 70%+ system guaranteed all the time, I’d consider keeping it to myself. I’m trying to get there, and here’s what I am seeing/playing right now to do it. I’ll adjust as we go, with any injury news, etc. if needed.

 

Week 11 Results:

The Computer = 6-8-0 overall, 1-4-0 Blazing Five

YTD = 75-83-3 (47.5%) overall, 26-28-1 Blazing Five (48.2%), Survivor Pool…IND(L), ARI(W), ATL (W), BAL (W), KC(L), MIA(W), BUF(W), TB(W), PIT(W), GB(W), LAC(W)

 

R.C = 5-9-0 overall, 1-4-0 Blazing Five

YTD = 82-76-3 (51.9% overall), 27-26-2 Blazing Five (50.9%), Survivor Pool…still alive PIT(W), GB(W), IND(W), LAR(W), ARI(W), MIA(W), BUF(W), TB(W), KC(W), NO(W), LAC(W)

 

=========================

Old intro…

FROM WEEK 5’s INTRO (and obviously I’m sticking with it…kinda): My new theory, a trend really…a simple way of betting you would say. I noticed a little/simple trend through the first 4 weeks and I’m going to follow it to make all picks – keeping it simple and taking a lot of my tape-watching and emotional bias out (because it’s not working/has me flirting +/- 50%). The Computer will stick with making picks based on ‘science’ -- the matchups + injuries + general betting history, etc.

My new simple formula for picking all games is this…

1) Take all the underdogs, regardless of how I feel.

2) Except always take the three definitive (to me) best teams in football no matter what the line is = those three teams are KC, BAL, BUF. (*Update: May drop BUF from this list, too many injuries)

3) And never bet with the single worst team in football…the Jets.

4) I’ll do my Blazing Five from within those pick patterns.

 

If I followed that theme for the first four weeks of this season, my record ATS would have been…

Week 1 = 10-5-1

Week 2 = 10-6-0

Week 3 = 9-7-0

Week 4 = 10-4-1

I’ll take that outcome…39-22-2 (63.9%).

======================

 

UPDATE: Week 5 went 10-4-0…so, this is working for now. 49-26-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 6 went 9-5-0…so, this is six killer weeks in a row with this. Not changing off of it…except for I have three exceptions this week. 58-31-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 7…I, RC, deviated some from my system and I won more than lost on my audible calls. If I had just stuck to my original concept…the concept/system went 8-6-0. Still a winner…been a winner every week since Week 1. 66-37-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 8…I, RC, should’ve just stuck with the system and stopped trying to overthink everything. The system this week went 10-4-0…meaning the system has not had a losing record all year in any week. I’m going to stick with the system (unless I cannot help myself!) 76-41-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 9…I stuck to the plan with no deviation and went 8-6-0. 79-47-2 overall system (62.7% YTD).

UPDATE: Week 10…I stuck to the plan with deviation and had my first losing week since following the system. It was the system’s first losing week. Now, the system is 84-55-3 (60.4%).

UPDATE: Week 11...I stuck to the plan but made two deviations from breaking injury reports and I split (win/loss) those 'audibles'. Overall, for the second week in-a-row the system lost. I think we've got a flat tire here. The system worked well up until we're getting teams falling out of the race/quitting/taking on too many injuries. So, I'm going to 'lean' the system (taking dogs) but going to deviate away from teams I think have all but given up their team/coach, etc., and lost their QB (CIN, JAX types). The 'system' was 5-9-0 last week to bring the tally to 89-64-3 (58.2%).

I'll keep tracking the pure all-dog system, but me personally...I'm making some changes as I see fit. We'll see if I get burned with it.

 

----------------------------------

 

HOU (-3.0) at DET

The Computer: DET…The Lions at Thanksgiving redeem from last week’s embarrassment. Lions by 0.3

RC picks: HOU…I think DET is rolling over now, so gimme Deshaun on the fast track.

*Computer B5 pick*

 

WSH at DAL (-3.0)

The Computer: WSH…Two teams with similar strengths and problems, so take the points. Dallas by 0.9

RC picks: DAL…DAL playing much better of late. Washington has been terrible v. DET and CIN the last two weeks, the Burrow injury saved them.

 

LV (-3.0) at ATL

The Computer: LV…The Raiders are better in every way and might get Julio not playing. Raiders by 5.8

RC picks: LV…Atlanta is done, and Vegas is one of the sneaky top teams in the NFL.

 *RC Blazing Five Pick* -- Switched from KC to LV.

ARI (-2.5) at NE

The Computer: NE…The home team with the better coach stymies Kyler. Patriots by 0.1

RC picks: NE…Taking the home dog with the colder/outdoor climate for this Arizona offense to have to work in. I’m not convinced about this pick, so just taking the points.

 

NYG (-6.0) at CIN

The Computer: NYG…Cincy is too weak everywhere without Burrow. Giants by 8.7

RC picks: NYG…I think the Giants are going to shine here and beatdown Cincy without Burrow. This should be a game that makes people believe in NYG as a possible NFC East winner.

*RC Blazing Five Pick*

*RC SURVIVOR PICK* -- Going to go after the Bengals with the QB change and NYG off a bye…and a must-win for NYG. Plus, I’ll never use NYG the rest of the year, so use it now. I could use CLE here, but I see that I might use CLE later…and I’ve already used NO this season. So, unbelievably, the Giants it is  - with confidence!

 

CLE (-6.5) at JAX

The Computer: CLE…In the battle of bad injury reports, go with the team with less injuries, with more to play for, and who isn’t starting Mike Glennon. Browns by 10.3

RC picks: CLE…The injury list for JAX is devastating, but CLE’s list is getting rough too. When JAX went with Mike Glennon, I went with CLE. The Jags are trying to lose or just bad at trying to win.

*Computer B5 pick*

*RC Blazing Five Pick*

 

CAR at MIN (-3.5)

The Computer: CAR…With Teddy, Carolina is arguably the better team straight up. CAR by 0.4

RC picks: CAR…I think Carolina is the better team, and home field doesn’t matter in 2020 in Minnesota.

*Computer B5 pick*

*RC Blazing Five Pick*

 

TEN at IND (-3.0)

The Computer: IND…The Colts are better on both sides of the ball and playing at home. Indy by 3.3

RC picks: TEN…Playing the odds that the Titans even the series.

 

LAC at BUF (-4.5)

The Computer: LAC…Herbert can keep games close, even with backdoor covers. Hard to blow him out. BUF by 5.0

RC picks: BUF…Wanted to go LAC but giving BUF a week to prep and LAC coming west-to-east, I’ll take the better coached team.

 

MIA (-7.0) at NYJ

The Computer: MIA…The defense saves the day again. Miami by 7.1

RC picks: NYJ…I think the Jets could win this game if Tua starts.

*RC Blazing Five Pick*

 

NO (-6.0) at DEN

The Computer: NO…Saints too hot and how can anyone bet on Drew Lock? Saints by 10.9

RC picks: NO…I was going to take Denver but re-watching their game from last week…Denver is so bad with Drew Lock and the Saints had a pep with Taysom, plus gets Lattimore back this week too.

*Computer B5 pick*

*Computer Survivor Pick*

 

SF at LAR (-5.5)

The Computer: LAR…Hard to know what SF players will come off I.R., while the Rams are white hot right now. Rams by 8.5

RC picks: LAR…The Rams are trying to be the best team in the NFL, in part because of their defense – which will be too much for Nick Mullens without Trent Williams (likely).

 

KC (-3.5) at TB

The Computer: TB…KC has scuffled with CAR and LV the past two weeks. The Bucs have a defense that could make this a real game, and they seem to come to play after an embarrassing game prior. KC by 2.9

RC picks: KC…Tampa Bay has to show me they can play well in big games first. I think KC could crush them.

 

CHI at GB (-8.5)

The Computer: GB…There’s too much going for the Pack here. Green Bay by 11.6

RC picks: GB…Green Bay off a loss, and the Bears are bad.

*Computer B5 pick*

 

BAL at PIT (-8.0) *Moved from -4.0 to -8.0 on COVID stuff

The Computer: BAL…If the Ravens have Jimmy Smith for this game, they can takedown PIT. Steelers by 2.2

RC picks: *Switch to PIT, in all the confusion*

Was BAL…The Ravens are due in a must-win spot and the Steelers have been living with the angels with this win streak…it’s due to come to an end. I’ll change this based on the COVID list for Sunday (or whenever played).

 

SEA (-5.0) at PHI

The Computer: PHI…Do-or-die game at Philly in the rain. Take the points. Seattle by 2.6

RC picks: SEA…I wanted to go with the home dog in a back-against-the-wall moment, but I think the Eagles are on the verge of full scale collapse and Seattle had 10 days to get ready for this. 



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>