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2020 Week 13 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer)

Date:
December 3, 2020 11:02 AM
December 3, 2020 11:01 AM

2020 Week 13 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer)

 

All game picks ATS with me (RC) picking against The Computer with the THU morning spreads.

My Computer is analyzing/driving off of analysis of the players/units/coaching/matchup game analysis with some historical trending on things – but mostly it is looking at the better teams/matchups to win considering the likely lineups, weather, and injury reports, etc.

I’m looking at The Computer’s data for my picks but also considering my feel for the matchup, my scouting hunches/biases of the two teams, the injury report impacts, and some inputs from Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello along with any other smart handicapping data inputs I come across/discover.

We’re all just trying to find a way to get to the holy grail of 60%+ win ability. We’re all trying to compete in office pools and survivor contests. If I had a 70%+ system guaranteed all the time, I’d consider keeping it to myself. I’m trying to get there, and here’s what I am seeing/playing right now to do it. I’ll adjust as we go, with any injury news, etc. if needed.

 

Week 12 Results:

The Computer = 6-10-0 overall, 3-2-0 Blazing Five

YTD = 81-93-3 (46.1%) overall, 29-30-1 Blazing Five (49.2%), Survivor Pool…IND(L), ARI(W), ATL (W), BAL (W), KC(L), MIA(W), BUF(W), TB(W), PIT(W), GB(W), LAC(W), NO(W)

 

R.C = 8-8-0 overall, 1-4-0 Blazing Five

YTD = 90-84-3 (51.3% overall), 28-30-2 Blazing Five (48.3%), Survivor Pool…still alive PIT(W), GB(W), IND(W), LAR(W), ARI(W), MIA(W), BUF(W), TB(W), KC(W), NO(W), LAC(W), NYG(W)

 

=========================

Old intro…

FROM WEEK 5’s INTRO (and obviously I’m sticking with it…kinda): My new theory, a trend really…a simple way of betting you would say. I noticed a little/simple trend through the first 4 weeks and I’m going to follow it to make all picks – keeping it simple and taking a lot of my tape-watching and emotional bias out (because it’s not working/has me flirting +/- 50%). The Computer will stick with making picks based on ‘science’ -- the matchups + injuries + general betting history, etc.

My new simple formula for picking all games is this…

1) Take all the underdogs, regardless of how I feel.

2) Except always take the three definitive (to me) best teams in football no matter what the line is = those three teams are KC, BAL, BUF. (*Update: May drop BUF from this list, too many injuries)

3) And never bet with the single worst team in football…the Jets.

4) I’ll do my Blazing Five from within those pick patterns.

 

If I followed that theme for the first four weeks of this season, my record ATS would have been…

Week 1 = 10-5-1

Week 2 = 10-6-0

Week 3 = 9-7-0

Week 4 = 10-4-1

I’ll take that outcome…39-22-2 (63.9%).


======================

 

UPDATE: Week 5 went 10-4-0…so, this is working for now. 49-26-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 6 went 9-5-0…so, this is six killer weeks in a row with this. Not changing off of it…except for I have three exceptions this week. 58-31-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 7…I, RC, deviated some from my system and I won more than lost on my audible calls. If I had just stuck to my original concept…the concept/system went 8-6-0. Still a winner…been a winner every week since Week 1. 66-37-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 8…I, RC, should’ve just stuck with the system and stopped trying to overthink everything. The system this week went 10-4-0…meaning the system has not had a losing record all year in any week. I’m going to stick with the system (unless I cannot help myself!) 76-41-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 9…I stuck to the plan with no deviation and went 8-6-0. 79-47-2 overall system (62.7% YTD).

UPDATE: Week 10…I stuck to the plan with deviation and had my first losing week since following the system. It was the system’s first losing week. Now, the system is 84-55-3 (60.4%).

UPDATE: Week 11...I stuck to the plan but made two deviations from breaking injury reports and I split (win/loss) those 'audibles'. Overall, for the second week in-a-row the system lost. I think we've got a flat tire here. The system worked well up until we're getting teams falling out of the race/quitting/taking on too many injuries. So, I'm going to 'lean' the system (taking dogs) but going to deviate away from teams I think have all but given up their team/coach, etc., and lost their QB (CIN, JAX types). The 'system' was 5-9-0 last week to bring the tally to 89-64-3 (58.2%).

I'll keep tracking the pure all-dog system, but me personally...I'm making some changes as I see fit. We'll see if I get burned with it.

UPDATE: Week 12…I had I just stuck to the system…I would have gone 11-5-0 this week, The system is now 100-69-3 (59.2%). So, I am just going to stick with the system and take myself out of the equation.

The rule is = Taking all dogs, except always with KC and always against the Jets.

 

----------------------------------

 

DET at CHI (-3.0)

The Computer: CHI…Trubisky has been a Lions killer. Bears by 4.2

RC picks: DET…sticking with the system.

 

CIN at MIA (-11.5)

The Computer: CIN…assuming Miami goes to Tua, and the Bengals can keep it close. Dolphins by 7.1

RC picks: CIN…sticking with the system.

*RC Blazing Five Pick*

*COMPUTER B5 pick*

 

IND (-3.0) at HOU

The Computer: IND…Texans have lost Fuller and Roby this week, not good. Colts by 6.9

RC picks: HOU…sticking with the system.

*COMPUTER B5 pick*

 

JAX at MIN (10.0)

The Computer: JAX…the Vikings have won one game by double-digits this season. Take the points. Vikings by 8.3

RC picks: JAX…sticking with the system.

*RC SURVIVOR PICK* -- Saving Seattle for next week (vs. the Jets), then Baltimore Week 15 vs. JAX. You’ll see more of my logic with this pick in the MIN-CAR game report. The Vikings are playing some of the best football in the NFL among the non-elite teams the past 5-6 weeks.

 

LV (-8.0) at NYJ

The Computer: NYJ…at home, LV travelling west, in the colder temps, Raiders by 5.2

RC picks: LV…sticking with the system.

 

NO (-3.0) at ATL

The Computer: NO…the Saints are rolling with Taysom. Saints by 6.8.

RC picks: ATL…sticking with the system.

*COMPUTER B5 pick*

 

CLE at TEN (-5.5)

The Computer: TEN…the Browns are completely unimpressive, and with Denzel Ward likely out – Titans by 6.0

RC picks: CLE…sticking with the system.

 

NYG at SEA (-10.0)

The Computer: NYG…Giants defense keeps it close. Seattle by 8.5

RC picks: NYG…sticking with the system.

*RC Blazing Five Pick*

*SURVIVOR PICK – Computer*

 

LAR (-3.0) at ARI

The Computer: LAR…Rams bounce back on a fading Arizona team. Rams by 5.3

RC picks: ARI…sticking with the system.

 

PHI at GB (-9.0)

The Computer: PHI…the Eagles are due to make a stand/surprise everyone by playing not-awful. Packers by 8.8.

RC picks: PHI…sticking with the system.

 

NE at LAC (P)

The Computer: LAC…the Patriots have been winning ugly/lucky of late. The Chargers are due to accidently win a game. On the fast track in LA…Chargers by 1.4

RC picks: NE…sticking with the system.

*RC Blazing Five Pick*

 

DEN at KC (-13.5)

The Computer: DEN…it’s a lot of points to lay for any team by any team. Chiefs by 13.0

RC picks: KC…sticking with the system.

*RC Blazing Five Pick*

 

BUF (-2.0) at SF

The Computer: BUF…two good teams, give the edge to the one with the WAY better QB. Bills by 5.8

RC picks: SF…sticking with the system.

*COMPUTER B5 pick*

 

WSH at PIT (-8.5)

The Computer: PIT…the Steelers are due to lose but not the FTs. Steelers by 9.7

RC picks: WSH…sticking with the system.

 

DAL at BAL (-7.0)

The Computer: BAL…the start of a five-game win streak right here. Ravens by 12.9

RC picks: BAL…NOT sticking with the system. Jason Katz told me to take the Ravens. The only thing more right than ‘the system’ on picks is Katz on the state of the Cowboys.

*COMPUTER B5 pick*

*RC Blazing Five Pick*



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>