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2020 Week 14 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer)

Date:
December 10, 2020 8:48 AM
December 10, 2020 10:29 AM

2020 Week 14 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer)

 

All game picks ATS with me (RC) picking against The Computer with the THU morning spreads.

My Computer is analyzing/driving off of analysis of the players/units/coaching/matchup game analysis with some historical trending on things – but mostly it is looking at the better teams/matchups to win considering the likely lineups, weather, and injury reports, etc.

I’m looking at The Computer’s data for my picks but also considering my feel for the matchup, my scouting hunches/biases of the two teams, the injury report impacts, and some inputs from Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello along with any other smart handicapping data inputs I come across/discover.

We’re all just trying to find a way to get to the holy grail of 60%+ win ability. We’re all trying to compete in office pools and survivor contests. If I had a 70%+ system guaranteed all the time, I’d consider keeping it to myself. I’m trying to get there, and here’s what I am seeing/playing right now to do it. I’ll adjust as we go, with any injury news, etc. if needed.

 

Week 13 Results:

The Computer = 10-5-0 overall, 5-0-0 Blazing Five

YTD = 91-98-3 (48.2%) overall, 34-30-1 Blazing Five (53.1%), Survivor Pool…IND(L), ARI(W), ATL (W), BAL (W), KC(L), MIA(W), BUF(W), TB(W), PIT(W), GB(W), LAC(W), NO(W), SEA(L)

 

R.C = 8-7-0 overall, 4-1-0 Blazing Five

YTD = 98-91-3 (51.9% overall), 32-31-2 Blazing Five (50.8%), Survivor Pool…still alive PIT(W), GB(W), IND(W), LAR(W), ARI(W), MIA(W), BUF(W), TB(W), KC(W), NO(W), LAC(W), NYG(W), MIN(W)

 

=========================

Old intro…

FROM WEEK 5’s INTRO (and obviously I’m sticking with it…kinda): My new theory, a trend really…a simple way of betting you would say. I noticed a little/simple trend through the first 4 weeks and I’m going to follow it to make all picks – keeping it simple and taking a lot of my tape-watching and emotional bias out (because it’s not working/has me flirting +/- 50%). The Computer will stick with making picks based on ‘science’ -- the matchups + injuries + general betting history, etc.

My new simple formula for picking all games is this…

1) Take all the underdogs, regardless of how I feel.

2) Except always take the three definitive (to me) best teams in football no matter what the line is = those three teams are KC, BAL, BUF. (*Update: May drop BUF from this list, too many injuries)

3) And never bet with the single worst team in football…the Jets.

4) I’ll do my Blazing Five from within those pick patterns.

 

If I followed that theme for the first four weeks of this season, my record ATS would have been…

Week 1 = 10-5-1

Week 2 = 10-6-0

Week 3 = 9-7-0

Week 4 = 10-4-1

I’ll take that outcome…39-22-2 (63.9%).

======================

 

UPDATE: Week 5 went 10-4-0…so, this is working for now. 49-26-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 6 went 9-5-0…so, this is six killer weeks in a row with this. Not changing off of it…except for I have three exceptions this week. 58-31-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 7…I, RC, deviated some from my system and I won more than lost on my audible calls. If I had just stuck to my original concept…the concept/system went 8-6-0. Still a winner…been a winner every week since Week 1. 66-37-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 8…I, RC, should’ve just stuck with the system and stopped trying to overthink everything. The system this week went 10-4-0…meaning the system has not had a losing record all year in any week. I’m going to stick with the system (unless I cannot help myself!) 76-41-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 9…I stuck to the plan with no deviation and went 8-6-0. 79-47-2 overall system (62.7% YTD).

UPDATE: Week 10…I stuck to the plan with deviation and had my first losing week since following the system. It was the system’s first losing week. Now, the system is 84-55-3 (60.4%).

UPDATE: Week 11...I stuck to the plan but made two deviations from breaking injury reports and I split (win/loss) those 'audibles'. Overall, for the second week in-a-row the system lost. I think we've got a flat tire here. The system worked well up until we're getting teams falling out of the race/quitting/taking on too many injuries. So, I'm going to 'lean' the system (taking dogs) but going to deviate away from teams I think have all but given up their team/coach, etc., and lost their QB (CIN, JAX types). The 'system' was 5-9-0 last week to bring the tally to 89-64-3 (58.2%).

I'll keep tracking the pure all-dog system, but me personally...I'm making some changes as I see fit. We'll see if I get burned with it.

UPDATE: Week 12…I had I just stuck to the system…I would have gone 11-5-0 this week, The system is now 100-69-3 (59.2%). So, I am just going to stick with the system and take myself out of the equation.

The rule is = Taking all dogs, except always with KC and always against the Jets.

UPDATE Week 13…One win over .500 on all picks ATS this week, but a nice 4-1 on the Blazing Five with another Survivor win. A good week overall.

Semi-sticking with the system this week, with a few modifications – the original rule was taking all the dogs no matter what, except always take KC and always against the Jets. I am adding the rule…always take BUF and LAR right now – as top 3-5 NFL teams the media doesn’t get, so lines/the public are always undervaluing.

I’m going off the reservation/away from some of the ‘all dog’ system picks this week – too many good lines/favorites to take this week in my opinion.

The original system went 7-8-0 this week and is now 107-77-3 (58.2%) YTD. We’ll keep tracking the original system every week to see how it is doing. So far, it’s the best…by far.

 

----------------------------------

 

NE at LAR (-5.0)

The Computer: LAR…The Patriots have no offense for this Rams defense. LAR by 6.3

RC picks: LAR…Top Team/Undervalued Play pick

 

GB (-7.5) at DET

The Computer: GB…These are the type games Rodgers just gets out and up early and wins by multiple TDs. GB by 14.4

RC picks: GB…I can’t pick Detroit here. I get burned all the time taking bad dogs v. GB.

*COMPUTER B5 Pick*

*RC Blazing Five Pick*

 

TEN (-7.5) at JAX

The Computer: TEN…Reversal of last week’s CLE embarrassment. TEN by 10.7

RC picks: TEN…JAX is the new NYJ, gotta take TEN here.

*COMPUTER SURVIVOR PICK*

 

DAL (-3.5) at CIN

The Computer: DAL…The revenge of Andy Dalton, whatever that means. DAL by 4.1

RC picks: DAL…Taking Dallas per Jason Katz, Cowboys betting expert (who won again last week).

 

ARI (-2.0) at NYG

The Computer: ARI…Due for a solid performance and facing Dan Jones helps. ARI by 5.5

RC picks: NYG…Taking the dog per the system rules.

*COMPUTER B5 Pick*

 

HOU (-1.5) at CHI

The Computer: HOU…Two bad teams, the better QB wins. HOU by 2.2

RC picks: CHI…Taking the dog per the system rules.

 

DEN at CAR (-3.5)

The Computer: CAR…Depending on who is out with COVID and not for the Panthers. CAR by 3.7

RC picks: DEN…Taking the dog per the system rules.

 

MIN at TB (-6.5)

The Computer: TB…Vikings wilt in the face of a big challenge. TB by 7.0

RC picks: MIN…Taking the dog per the system rules.

 

KC (-7.0) at MIA

The Computer: KC…Mahomes v. Tua…we love it! KC by 13.8

RC picks: KC…Taking ‘always KC’ per the system rules.

*COMPUTER B5 Pick*

*RC Blazing Five Pick*

 

IND (-2.5) at LV

The Computer: LV…Home team getting some key players back healthy. LV by 0.1

RC picks: LV…Taking the dog per the system rules.

 

NYJ at SEA (-13.5)

The Computer: NYJ…Too many points in just about any game. SEA by 11.5

RC picks: SEA…Taking the anti-Jets per the system rules.

*COMPUTER SURVIVOR PICK* Going to use my SEA option here. BAL or SF next week/Wk15. CLE v. Jets Week 16. Then we see what treats Week 17 has in store…if we even need it.

 

ATL (-2.5) at LAC

The Computer: LAC…Bounce back off a 45-0 stinker. LAC by 1.1

RC picks: LAC…Taking the dog per the system rules.

*COMPUTER B5 Pick*

*RC Blazing Five Pick*

 

NO (-7.0) at PHI

The Computer: PHI…Hurts wrinkle keeps it close enough. NO by 6.1

RC picks: PHI…Taking the dog per the system rules.

 

WSH at SF (-3.0)

The Computer: SF…A mismatch/bad matchup for WSH. SF by 6.7

RC picks: SF…Love the 49ers in this spot, going against the system.

*COMPUTER B5 Pick*

*RC Blazing Five Pick*

 

PIT at BUF (-2.5)

The Computer: PIT…Steelers bounce back from a little adversity and handle their business. PIT by 0.2

RC picks: BUF…Top Team/Undervalued Play pick.

*RC Blazing Five Pick*

 

BAL (-3.0) at CLE

The Computer: BAL…Ravens are the better team if Jimmy Smith is back. BAL by 2.2

RC picks: CLE…Taking the dog per the system rules.



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>