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2020 Week 15 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer) *One change THU afternoon*

Date:
December 17, 2020 10:43 AM
December 17, 2020 10:42 AM

2020 Week 15 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer)

 

All game picks ATS with me (RC) picking against The Computer with the THU morning spreads.

My Computer is analyzing/driving off of our statistical analysis of the players/units/coaching/matchup game analysis with some historical trending on things – but mostly it is looking at the better teams/matchups to win considering the likely lineups, weather, and injury reports, etc.

I’m looking at The Computer’s data for my picks but also considering my feel for the matchup, my scouting hunches/biases of the two teams, the injury report impacts, and some inputs from Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello along with any other smart handicapping data inputs I come across/discover.

We’re all just trying to find a way to get to the holy grail of 60%+ win ability. We’re all trying to compete in office pools and survivor contests. If I had a 70%+ system guaranteed all the time, I’d consider keeping it to myself. I’m trying to get there, and here’s what I am seeing/playing right now to do it. I’ll adjust as we go, with any injury news, etc. if needed.

 

Week 14 Results:

The Computer = 8-8-0 overall, 2-3-0 Blazing Five

YTD = 99-106-3 (48.3%) overall, 36-33-1 Blazing Five (52.2%), Survivor Pool…IND(L), ARI(W), ATL (W), BAL (W), KC(L), MIA(W), BUF(W), TB(W), PIT(W), GB(W), LAC(W), NO(W), SEA(L), TEN(W)

 

R.C = 8-8-0 overall, 4-1-0 Blazing Five

YTD = 106-99-3 (51.7% overall), 35-34-2 Blazing Five (50.7%), Survivor Pool…still alive PIT(W), GB(W), IND(W), BAL/not Rams (W), ARI(W), MIA(W), BUF(W), TB(W), KC(W), NO(W), LAC(W), NYG(W), MIN(W), SEA(W)

 

=========================

Old intro…

FROM WEEK 5’s INTRO (and obviously I’m sticking with it…kinda): My new theory, a trend really…a simple way of betting you would say. I noticed a little/simple trend through the first 4 weeks and I’m going to follow it to make all picks – keeping it simple and taking a lot of my tape-watching and emotional bias out (because it’s not working/has me flirting +/- 50%). The Computer will stick with making picks based on ‘science’ -- the matchups + injuries + general betting history, etc.

My new simple formula for picking all games is this…

1) Take all the underdogs, regardless of how I feel.

2) Except always take the three definitive (to me) best teams in football no matter what the line is = those three teams are KC, BAL, BUF. (*Update: May drop BUF from this list, too many injuries)

3) And never bet with the single worst team in football…the Jets.

4) I’ll do my Blazing Five from within those pick patterns.

 

If I followed that theme for the first four weeks of this season, my record ATS would have been…

Week 1 = 10-5-1

Week 2 = 10-6-0

Week 3 = 9-7-0

Week 4 = 10-4-1

I’ll take that outcome…39-22-2 (63.9%).

======================

 

UPDATE: Week 5 went 10-4-0…so, this is working for now. 49-26-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 6 went 9-5-0…so, this is six killer weeks in a row with this. Not changing off of it…except for I have three exceptions this week. 58-31-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 7…I, RC, deviated some from my system and I won more than lost on my audible calls. If I had just stuck to my original concept…the concept/system went 8-6-0. Still a winner…been a winner every week since Week 1. 66-37-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 8…I, RC, should’ve just stuck with the system and stopped trying to overthink everything. The system this week went 10-4-0…meaning the system has not had a losing record all year in any week. I’m going to stick with the system (unless I cannot help myself!) 76-41-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 9…I stuck to the plan with no deviation and went 8-6-0. 79-47-2 overall system (62.7% YTD).

UPDATE: Week 10…I stuck to the plan with deviation and had my first losing week since following the system. It was the system’s first losing week. Now, the system is 84-55-3 (60.4%).

UPDATE: Week 11...I stuck to the plan but made two deviations from breaking injury reports and I split (win/loss) those 'audibles'. Overall, for the second week in-a-row the system lost. I think we've got a flat tire here. The system worked well up until we're getting teams falling out of the race/quitting/taking on too many injuries. So, I'm going to 'lean' the system (taking dogs) but going to deviate away from teams I think have all but given up their team/coach, etc., and lost their QB (CIN, JAX types). The 'system' was 5-9-0 last week to bring the tally to 89-64-3 (58.2%).

I'll keep tracking the pure all-dog system, but me personally...I'm making some changes as I see fit. We'll see if I get burned with it.

UPDATE: Week 12…I had I just stuck to the system…I would have gone 11-5-0 this week, The system is now 100-69-3 (59.2%). So, I am just going to stick with the system and take myself out of the equation.

The rule is = Taking all dogs, except always with KC and always against the Jets.

UPDATE Week 13…One win over .500 on all picks ATS this week, but a nice 4-1 on the Blazing Five with another Survivor win. A good week overall.

Semi-sticking with the system this week, with a few modifications – the original rule was taking all the dogs no matter what, except always take KC and always against the Jets. I am adding the rule…always take BUF and LAR right now – as top 3-5 NFL teams the media doesn’t get, so lines/the public are always undervaluing.

I’m going off the reservation/away from some of the ‘all dog’ system picks this week – too many good lines/favorites to take this week in my opinion.

The original system went 7-8-0 this week and is now 107-77-3 (58.2%) YTD. We’ll keep tracking the original system every week to see how it is doing. So far, it’s the best…by far.

UPDATE Week 14: An ‘OK enough’ week. I deviated some from the system and it worked some and missed others.

Most importantly we won again in Survivor, and we’re set up for an all vs. Jets finish if we want it…

Week 15: LAR v. jets

Week 16: Browns v. jets

Week 17: Patriots v. jets (we have to see if this game means anything for NE. Last year, we made it to Week 17 in Survivor and got our one and only loss there…but had already booked many pool wins before we got to Week 17).

The original heavy-dog system went (in Week 14): 7-9-0 and is now 114-86-3 for the season. Hot start cooling to the finish because, in part, everyone is figuring out the underdog trend, so lines are being adjusted. We’ll still track it to the finish.

 

----------------------------------

 

LAC at LV (-3.5)

The Computer: LV…The team with urgency, at home, D-C change gets needed win. Raiders by 4.2

RC picks: LAC…Too many points to give Justin Herbert.

 

CAR v. GB (-8.5)

The Computer: CAR…You can’t give Carolina that many points. Packers by 7.7

RC picks: CAR…Too many points to give Carolina this year. If you gave the Panthers +8 in every game this season, they’d be 10-2-1. Both losses would then be to TB. But GB might be a problem/ex caption as well.

 

BUF (-6.5) at DEN

The Computer: DEN…Denver playing scrappy, keeps it close enough. Bills by 6.2

RC picks: BUF…Riding with the best team in football, although my gut tells me Denver here at home. Too many points, but I think the Bills are peaking right now.

*RC Blazing Five pick*

 

HOU at IND (-7.0)

The Computer: HOU…It’s a lot of points. Their last 4 home games would be 0-4 if you gave the opponent +7.0. Colts by 5.3

RC picks: HOU…Too many points to Houston in a dome. Back door cover alert.

*COMPUTER B5 Pick*

 

DET at TEN (-9.5)

The Computer: DET…Lions slow it down and try to stay close and cover. Titans by 9.9

RC picks: TEN…That Lions defense and Chase Daniel…no way, I’ll give the points.

 

NYJ at LAR (-17.0)

The Computer: NYJ…So many points. Rams by 16.0

RC picks: LAR…Riding with the 2nd-best team in football at home, against the worst team in football.

*RC SURVIVOR PICK* …and CLE over Jets next week!!

*Computer Survivor pick*

 

TB (-6.0) at ATL

The Computer: ATL…Atlanta can cover here against an erratic Bucs team. Bucs by 5.5

RC picks: TB…Much more at stake for TB, and Matt Ryan is dying.

 

NE at MIA (-2.5)

The Computer: NE…Patriots win outright. Pats by 1.7

RC picks: NE…Anti-Tua ways.

*COMPUTER B5 Pick*

*RC Blazing Five pick*

 

SEA (-5.5) at WSH

The Computer: SEA…A blowout may be coming. Seahawks by 8.1

RC picks: *NOW SEA w Haskins starting*

Was: WSH…IF Alex Smith is at QB, if not…then Seattle.

*COMPUTER B5 Pick*

 

CHI at MIN (-3.0)

The Computer: MIN…Close but lean the home team. Vikings by 3.1

RC picks: CHI…Bears can win this outright.

*RC Blazing Five pick*

 

JAX at BAL (-13.5)

The Computer: JAX…A Minshew bump could help the Jags stay close/cover. Ravens by 11.9

RC picks: JAX…I’m not sure this Ravens team should be -13.5 over anyone, especially the Jags with Minshew back.

 *COMPUTER B5 Pick*

CLE (-5.0) at NYG

The Computer: NYG…Like the number here for a cover or outright win. Browns by 3.4

RC picks: *CHANGE/NEW* to CLE -- with James Bradberry out, it takes away NYG's best player...so go CLE without hesitation.

Original pick = NYG…The Giants are good, but the public doesn’t think so, and the public loves CLE now after MNF…so, a perfect storm for NYG to cover/win…even with Colt McCoy.

*RC Blazing Five pick/CLE*

 

PHI at ARI (-6.5)

The Computer: PHI…Too many points, back door cover potential. Cards by 5.7

RC picks: PHI…Too many points for a wobbly Arizona team to give up.

 

KC (-3.0) at NO

The Computer: NO…Saints can cover or win here. KC is playing sloppy against mediocre teams. Chiefs by 2.2

RC picks: KC…In a dome, too little number of points to lay…and I’m willing to give them.

 

SF (-3.0) at DAL

The Computer: SF…SF w2ins like WSH beat them last week, with defense. SF by 5.9.

RC picks: SF…Better team, more desperate team wins via great defense.

*COMPUTER B5 Pick*

*RC Blazing Five pick*

 

PIT (12.5) at CIN

The Computer: PIT…Must win moment against a dead Cincy team. Steelers by 13.1

RC picks: CIN…IF Brandon Allen is starting, I’ll cross my fingers with the points. https://youtu.be/ewAXdTyrt-Q

 

Good luck this week! 



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>