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2020 Week 16 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer) *UPDATE on CAR v WSH

Date:
December 24, 2020 11:44 AM
December 24, 2020 11:43 AM

2020 Week 16 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer)

 

All game picks ATS with me (RC) picking against The Computer with the THU morning spreads.

My Computer is analyzing/driving off of our statistical analysis of the players/units/coaching/matchup game analysis with some historical trending on things – but mostly it is looking at the better teams/matchups to win considering the likely lineups, weather, and injury reports, etc.

I’m looking at The Computer’s data for my picks but also considering my feel for the matchup, my scouting hunches/biases of the two teams, the injury report impacts, and some inputs from Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello along with any other smart handicapping data inputs I come across/discover.

We’re all just trying to find a way to get to the holy grail of 60%+ win ability. We’re all trying to compete in office pools and survivor contests. If I had a 70%+ system guaranteed all the time, I’d consider keeping it to myself. I’m trying to get there, and here’s what I am seeing/playing right now to do it. I’ll adjust as we go, with any injury news, etc. if needed.

 

Week 15 Results:

The Computer = 3-11-2 overall, 2-3-0 Blazing Five

YTD = 102-117-5 (46.6%) overall, 36-37-2 Blazing Five (49.3%), Survivor Pool…IND(L), ARI(W), ATL (W), BAL (W), KC(L), MIA(W), BUF(W), TB(W), PIT(W), GB(W), LAC(W), NO(W), SEA(L), TEN(W), LAR(L)

 

R.C = 7-7-2 overall, 3-2-0 Blazing Five

YTD = 113-106-5 (51.6% overall), 38-36-2 Blazing Five (51.4%), Survivor Pool…still alive PIT(W), GB(W), IND(W), BAL/not Rams (W), ARI(W), MIA(W), BUF(W), TB(W), KC(W), NO(W), LAC(W), NYG(W), MIN(W), SEA(W), LAR(L) *Finally lost in Survivor, so who cares about life anymore?

 

=========================

Old intro…

FROM WEEK 5’s INTRO (and obviously I’m sticking with it…kinda): My new theory, a trend really…a simple way of betting you would say. I noticed a little/simple trend through the first 4 weeks and I’m going to follow it to make all picks – keeping it simple and taking a lot of my tape-watching and emotional bias out (because it’s not working/has me flirting +/- 50%). The Computer will stick with making picks based on ‘science’ -- the matchups + injuries + general betting history, etc.

My new simple formula for picking all games is this…

1) Take all the underdogs, regardless of how I feel.

2) Except always take the three definitive (to me) best teams in football no matter what the line is = those three teams are KC, BAL, BUF. (*Update: May drop BUF from this list, too many injuries)

3) And never bet with the single worst team in football…the Jets.

4) I’ll do my Blazing Five from within those pick patterns.

 

If I followed that theme for the first four weeks of this season, my record ATS would have been…

Week 1 = 10-5-1

Week 2 = 10-6-0

Week 3 = 9-7-0

Week 4 = 10-4-1

I’ll take that outcome…39-22-2 (63.9%).

======================

 

UPDATE: Week 5 went 10-4-0…so, this is working for now. 49-26-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 6 went 9-5-0…so, this is six killer weeks in a row with this. Not changing off of it…except for I have three exceptions this week. 58-31-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 7…I, RC, deviated some from my system and I won more than lost on my audible calls. If I had just stuck to my original concept…the concept/system went 8-6-0. Still a winner…been a winner every week since Week 1. 66-37-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 8…I, RC, should’ve just stuck with the system and stopped trying to overthink everything. The system this week went 10-4-0…meaning the system has not had a losing record all year in any week. I’m going to stick with the system (unless I cannot help myself!) 76-41-2 overall system.

UPDATE: Week 9…I stuck to the plan with no deviation and went 8-6-0. 79-47-2 overall system (62.7% YTD).

UPDATE: Week 10…I stuck to the plan with deviation and had my first losing week since following the system. It was the system’s first losing week. Now, the system is 84-55-3 (60.4%).

UPDATE: Week 11...I stuck to the plan but made two deviations from breaking injury reports and I split (win/loss) those 'audibles'. Overall, for the second week in-a-row the system lost. I think we've got a flat tire here. The system worked well up until we're getting teams falling out of the race/quitting/taking on too many injuries. So, I'm going to 'lean' the system (taking dogs) but going to deviate away from teams I think have all but given up their team/coach, etc., and lost their QB (CIN, JAX types). The 'system' was 5-9-0 last week to bring the tally to 89-64-3 (58.2%).

I'll keep tracking the pure all-dog system, but me personally...I'm making some changes as I see fit. We'll see if I get burned with it.

UPDATE: Week 12…I had I just stuck to the system…I would have gone 11-5-0 this week, The system is now 100-69-3 (59.2%). So, I am just going to stick with the system and take myself out of the equation.

The rule is = Taking all dogs, except always with KC and always against the Jets.

UPDATE Week 13…One win over .500 on all picks ATS this week, but a nice 4-1 on the Blazing Five with another Survivor win. A good week overall.

Semi-sticking with the system this week, with a few modifications – the original rule was taking all the dogs no matter what, except always take KC and always against the Jets. I am adding the rule…always take BUF and LAR right now – as top 3-5 NFL teams the media doesn’t get, so lines/the public are always undervaluing.

I’m going off the reservation/away from some of the ‘all dog’ system picks this week – too many good lines/favorites to take this week in my opinion.

The original system went 7-8-0 this week and is now 107-77-3 (58.2%) YTD. We’ll keep tracking the original system every week to see how it is doing. So far, it’s the best…by far.

UPDATE Week 14: An ‘OK enough’ week. I deviated some from the system and it worked some and missed others.

Most importantly we won again in Survivor, and we’re set up for an all vs. Jets finish if we want it…

Week 15: LAR v. jets

Week 16: Browns v. jets

Week 17: Patriots v. jets (we have to see if this game means anything for NE. Last year, we made it to Week 17 in Survivor and got are one and only loss there…but had already booked many pool wins before we got to Week 17).

The original heavy-dog system went (in Week 14): 7-9-0 and is now 114-86-3 for the season. Hot start cooling to the finish because, in part, everyone is figuring out the underdog trend, so lines are being adjusted. We’ll still track it to the finish.

UPDATE Week 15: I lost in Survivor. I freaking lost in Survivor because thew Rams got smoked by the Jets. Are you kidding me? That's the summary of this handicapping week.

The original heavy-dog system went (in Week 15): 8-6-2 and is now 124-95-5 (56.6%) for the season.

----------------------------------

 

MIN at NO (-7.0)

The Computer: MIN…That’s a lot of points to give this Vikings offense. Saints by 5.8

RC picks: MIN…When in doubt, take the dog/points.

 

TB (-9.5) at DET

The Computer: DET…The Bucs have secretly been playing terrible football for weeks. Bucs by 5.3

RC picks: DET… When in doubt, take the dog/points.

*Computer Blazing Five*

 

SF at ARI (-5.0)

The Computer: SF…C.J. Beathard gives them a little more juice to cover. Cards by 4.8

RC picks: ARI…I think Arizona is rising as a top NFL team, but are not getting that respect so the lines are undervalued and I’m jumping on it.

 

MIA (-3.0) at LV

The Computer: LV…Miami going east-to-west, LV with 10 days off, and project OK if Mariota can play QB this week. Dolphins by 1.6

RC picks: LV…When in doubt, take the dog/points.

 

DEN at LAC (-3.0)

The Computer: DEN…The Chargers are terrible -- and lucky the last two weeks. Broncos full upset by 1.1

RC picks: DEN…When in doubt, take the dog/points.

 

CLE (-9.5) at NYJ

The Computer: CLE…Browns too strong right now. Browns by 12.8

RC picks: CLE…I’m always betting against the Jets. It’s usually good, but not last week.

*RC SURVIVOR PICK*

*Computer Survivor Pick*

 

CIN at HOU (-8.0)

The Computer: HOU…Short week for Cincy, and they still start Ryan Finley. Texans by 9.3

RC picks: CIN…When in doubt, take the dog/points.

 

IND (-1.5) at PIT

The Computer: PIT…At Pittsburgh, putting Rivers outside makes a huge difference. Steelers by 0.5

RC picks: PIT…The public is so far swung on PIT, it’s a good value.

*RC Blazing Five*

 

CHI (-7.5) at JAX

The Computer: JAX…Might the Jags be this week’s Jets/Bengals? Bears by 7.0

RC picks: JAX…When in doubt, take the dog/points.

 

CAR at WSH (-2.5)

The Computer: CAR…Carolina is the better team, so take the points. Panthers by 0.7

RC picks: *CHANGE* to WSH...Brian Burns out on top of other issues I see with this game.

Was...CAR…When in doubt, take the dog/points.

*Computer Blazing Five*

 

NYG at BAL (-10.0)

The Computer: NYG…WAY too many points here. Ravens by 4.4

RC picks: NYG…I actually love this bet…a lot of points against a very tough defense with Bradberry back.

*Computer Blazing Five*

*RC Blazing Five*

 

ATL at KC (-10.5)

The Computer: ATL…Falcons tend to keep games close and/or back door cover. Chiefs by 10.2

RC picks: ATL…I’m done watching KC not cover.

 

LAR at SEA (-1.5)

The Computer: LAR…The Rams are the better team. Rams by 4.8

RC picks: LAR…I like the bounce back spread value here – everyone hates the Rams after losing the Jets.

*Computer Blazing Five*

*RC Blazing Five*

 

PHI (-2.0) at DAL

The Computer: PHI…The world changes with a Philly win over sketchy Dallas team. Eagles by 4.1

RC picks: PHI…I like this a lot.

*Computer Blazing Five*

 *RC Blazing Five* -- Change from CAR

TEN at GB (-3.5)

The Computer: TEN…The Titans are the better team and getting points…but Lambeau helps GB. Packers by 2.4

RC picks: TEN…In the bad weather, I’ll take the points.

 

BUF (-7.0) at NE

The Computer: NE…It’s a lot of points to give in this battle of teams that don’t like it’s each other. Bills by 6.6

RC picks: BUF…Always bet with the best team in football, especially a still undervalued one.

*RC Blazing Five*




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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>