2020 Week 2 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer)
All game picks ATS with me (RC) picking against The Computer with the THU morning spreads.
My Computer is analyzing/driving off of analysis of the players/units/coaching/matchup game analysis with some historical trending on things – but mostly it is looking at the better teams/matchups to win considering the likely lineups, weather, and injury reports, etc.
I’m looking at The Computer’s data for my picks but also considering my feel for the matchup, my scouting hunches/biases of the two teams, the injury report impacts, and some inputs from Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello along with any other smart handicapping data inputs I come across/discover.
We’re all just trying to find a way to get to the holy grail of 60%+ win ability. We’re all trying to compete in office pools and survivor contests. If I had a 70%+ system guaranteed all the time, I’d consider keeping it to myself. I’m trying to get there, and here’s what I am seeing/playing right now to do it. I’ll adjust as we go, if needed.
Week 1 Results:
The Computer = 9-6-1 (60.0%) overall, 3-2-0 Blazing Five (60.0%), Survivor Pool…toast (lost IND). No spread picks: 12-4-0
R.C = 6-9-1 (40.0% overall), 3-2-0 Blazing Five (60.0%), Survivor Pool…still alive (PIT/win). No spread picks: 10-6-0
The Computer showed up overall, but we tied on what really matters…the more actual bets/B5 type picks. We’ll take a 3-2 week. Colin Cowherd went 2-3, so we’re both beating him.
Ok, we got a peak at all the teams Week 1, now let’s see what my eyes vs. The Computer thinks of Week 2…
CIN at CLE (-6.0)
The Computer says: CIN…top-to-bottom, with Burrow, the Bengals are better than the Browns…including in coaching. Browns with a home field project to win by 2.7.
RC says: CIN…I think Cincy might be the better team and is playing with some spirit…while the Browns are weeks away from a full-scale tabloid internal meltdown. CLE to win if I had to choose non-ATS, but I really think CIN might get the upset here.
LAR at PHI (-1.5)
The Computer says: LAR…the O-Line comes back to haunt Philly again. Rams win by 2.7.
RC says: PHI…I want to go with a Philly bounce back, but they have so many issues and the Rams are so well coached. I don’t love LAR on the road, outdoors, but the weather is going to be fine/OK. I’ve changes this pick several times…I’ll go Philly with no confidence.
CAR at TB (-9.0)
The Computer says: CAR…Bucs win by 5.5 but it’s a bit early for the Bucs to be laying 9.0 to a team that has offensive pieces to stay close.
RC says: CAR…I think it’s a lot of points, but I also think TB is going to try and prove a point this week and if CAR is missing Donte Jackson it could really be out of hand. If Jackson plays, I would lean CAR+pts, but I really don’t want anything to do with betting on this.
DEN at PIT (-7.0)
The Computer says: PIT…A.J. Bouye and Lindsay hurt really makes it a chore to go DEN at PIT with Drew Lock against that defense. Steelers win by 8.2.
RC says: DEN…I think it’s too many points and Denver has injuries but so does the Steelers O-Line and lack of run game.
ATL at DAL (-3.5)
The Computer says: DAL…Dallas is a better version of the Falcons. Cowboys win by 6.0
RC says: DAL…I hate giving up that many points for a backdoor cover, but I think Dallas is just too strong for ATL. A bad matchup for the Falcons.
RC BLAZING FIVE PICK
SF (-7.0) at NYJ
The Computer says: NYJ…the 49ers are dealing with a lot of injuries, travelling west-to-east for a 1pm game. The Jets can keep this close. 49ers by 5.0
RC says: NYJ…I’ve had a hunch about this all week long.
BUF (-5.5) at MIA
The Computer says: BUF…Miami was so perplexing Week 1, go with the better coached team. But the heat and humidity make this non-bet-able. Buffalo by 5.8.
RC says: MIA…Between the heat/humidity and the likelihood Miami bounces back and plays tough/keeps it close, I’ll take the home points to cover not win outright.
MIN at IND (-3.0)
The Computer says: MIN…The Computer is convinced the Vikings win this game, in part, because Rivers is a sloppier QB than Cousins and they outplay the Colts or keep close for the cover. Vikings by 3.8.
RC says: MIN…The Computer loves MIN here, so much so it scares me. Last week it loved Seattle when I loved ATL…and The Computer was more than ‘right’ there, so I’ll defer to go old TC.
RC BLAZING FIVE PICK
DET at GB (-6.5)
The Computer says: GB…too many defensive injuries for the Lions v. Rodgers. GB by 8.4
RC says: GB…I’d love to take the points, but the Lions have nothing to cover the Packers passing game with all their DB injuries. RC SURVIVOR POOL PICK
RC BLAZING FIVE PICK
NYG at CHI (-5.5)
The Computer says: CHI…The Bears are not trustworthy, but neither are the Giants. Bears at home win by 5.9.
RC says: NYG…I’m going contrarian. The Bears revert to their norm and NYG plays tough and keeps it close/wins.
RC BLAZING FIVE PICK (New B5 pick, abandoning ARI)
JAX at TEN (-8.0)
The Computer says: TEN…not with a lot of confidence. Titans by 9.2.
RC says: JAX…the battle for first place in the NFC South! I think the Jags can win this game, but I for sure think they’ll cover.
WAS at ARI (-7.0)
The Computer says: ARI…mostly for fear of Haskins. Cards win by 9.9. COMPUTER SURVIVOR POOL PICK
RC says: ARI…I almost just too the points, but if Kyler’s running neutralizes the pass rush then Washington has nothing left to be able to claim victory here.
RC BLAZING FIVE PICK (was originally, now changing away from this)
BAL (-7.0) at HOU
The Computer says: HOU…The Computer likes this matchup with HOU coming off a bad loss, 10 days to prepare/stew, and can push a heavy run game at Baltimore. Ravens by 3.1.
RC says: HOU…I should take the Ravens, but the Computer is very convinced this game is made for Houston to stay close/possibly win. I’ll give it a try for a cover. We went down with the ship with HOU v. KC with a similar mindset Week 1, so…
KC (-8.5) at LAC
The Computer says: LAC…Just that LAC keeps it close with their offensive style and their defense may make Mahomes sweat a bit this week. Chiefs by 5.1.
RC says: KC…I see KC piling on points and LAC not keeping up more than LAC turns it into a slog. The LAC O-Line injuries take the run game control aspect away here and KC blows them out.
NE at SEA (-4.0)
The Computer says: NE…Take Belichick and points when you can. Seahawks by 0.9
RC says: NE…I echo those sentiments. I think NE will win.
RC BLAZING FIVE PICK
NO (-6.0) at LV
The Computer says: LV…too many points to give to a solid team in their new stadium debut. Saints win by 3.7.
RC says: LV…I agree with that sentiment. The Raiders are a good team, and the Saints without Michael Thomas and Janoris Jenkins (maybe).
The Computer’s Blazing Five (biggest spread differential):
+6.8 = MIN
+3.9 = HOU
+3.5 = CAR
+3.4 = LAC
+3.4 = ARI
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