2020 Week 3 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer)
All game picks ATS with me (RC) picking against The Computer with the THU morning spreads.
My Computer is analyzing/driving off of analysis of the players/units/coaching/matchup game analysis with some historical trending on things – but mostly it is looking at the better teams/matchups to win considering the likely lineups, weather, and injury reports, etc.
I’m looking at The Computer’s data for my picks but also considering my feel for the matchup, my scouting hunches/biases of the two teams, the injury report impacts, and some inputs from Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello along with any other smart handicapping data inputs I come across/discover.
We’re all just trying to find a way to get to the holy grail of 60%+ win ability. We’re all trying to compete in office pools and survivor contests. If I had a 70%+ system guaranteed all the time, I’d consider keeping it to myself. I’m trying to get there, and here’s what I am seeing/playing right now to do it. I’ll adjust as we go, with any injury news, etc. if needed.
Week 2 Results:
The Computer = 6-10-0 overall, 2-3-0 Blazing Five, Survivor Pool win w Arizona
YTD = 15-16-1 (48.3%) overall, 5-5-0 Blazing Five (50.0%), Survivor Pool…IND(L), ARI(W)
R.C = 8-8-0 overall, 2-3-0 Blazing Five, Survivor Pool win w Green Bay
YTD = 14-17-1 (45.1% overall), 5-5-0 Blazing Five (50.0%), Survivor Pool…still alive PIT(W), GB(W)
Rough week for everybody. What’s weird is – the Computer picked the winners of the games (not ATS) 14-2 but was 6-10 with the spread. I was 13-3 non-ATS and 8-8 ATS. We both went 2-3-0 in the B5. It’s been a crazy year already for fantasy and picking games…so many injuries, such odd arenas (no fans) to play in. Just weird.
You know it’s bad when Colin Cowherd went 2-3 in his Blazing Five, for the second week in a row. He’s 4-6-0 in B5...and he’s the master of it.
Let’s see what kind of chaos Week 3 brings…
MIA at JAX (-3.0)
The Computer: JAX…A best bet of the week candidate. The Jags are better in every facet and playing in front of some fans on a THU night. The Jags have beaten a top team and then almost beat another. They are #1 in 3rd-down conversion% in the NFL. This team is no joke, but Miami is. Jags win by 9.4.
RC: JAX…The right thing to do would probably go opposite of logic here, but everything I see with Miami is an issue…and I love a lot of what the Jags are doing. This a REAL BET I’m making.
LV at NE (-6.0)
The Computer: NE…Coming off a high-energy win on MNF, a short week and travelling east-to-west, Patriots by 7.1.
RC: NE…I’d like the Raiders if not for coming off the MNF thing. I’d like the points, not necessarily to win.
RC BLAZING FIVE
LAR at BUF (-2.5)
The Computer: BUF…The at Buffalo/Goff on the road thing is worrisome, and LAR just lost a nice OL to IR. If the Bills’ ILBs are back…Bills by 2.9.
RC: BUF…I so want to go Rams here, but under a FG and Goff on the road makes me lean BUF.
HOU at PIT (-4.0)
The Computer: PIT…poor HOU, they are going to play the three best teams in football out of the gates. It’s a so-so HOU team against a top defense and WR-rich passing game vs. a bad pass defense. Steelers by 5.3.
RC: HOU…I will go and get burned by the same theory that caught me the last two weeks -- HOU makes a stand and stays within the point spread or wins. It’s the last time I go HOU…until the next time. The Texans season is saved if they win here, they’re in solid position with a win to get to 1-2…like many 0-2 FF teams.
SF (-4.0) at NYG
The Computer: SF…As beat up as SF is, you go Shanahan over Judge/Garrett. SF by 6.1.
RC: SF…I want to say NYG can play scrappy and keep it close, but who am I kidding?
RC BLAZING FIVE
TEN (-2.5) at MIN
The Computer: TEN…Until MIN gets their pass rush back, you can’t take them seriously. TEN by 2.7.
RC: MIN…There has to be a reversal of fortune here. MIN isn’t this bad, and TEN is lucky not to be (0-2).
WAS at CLE (-7.0)
The Computer: WAS…When in doubt, take the points. The Browns aren’t very good. CLE by 3.1.
RC: WAS…I don’t know that the Browns are that much better than Washington. Barely beating Cincy isn’t impressive. Seven is a lot of points.
RC BLAZING FIVE
CIN at PHI (-5.0)
The Computer: CIN…The Eagles have so many injuries to deal with. -5.0 is a ton of points to lay in a game of two bad teams. PHI by 3.1.
RC: CIN…I don’t think Cincy is as bad a team as people think. There are some sparks on defense. This Cincy team almost beat LAC opening week/should’ve. The defensive injuries for CIN hold me back from a bolder call. Isn’t Burrow better than Wentz in your mind?
CHI at ATL (-3.0)
The Computer: ATL…The Falcons are just the better team. ATL by 6.8. The Computer’s sneaky SURVIVOR PICK
RC: ATL…The Falcons should be (1-1) and the Bears should be (0-2). I like the Falcons a lot to reverse the negative taste from last week away. Julio’s health is a big factor here that could make me not play as a B5.
RC BLAZING FIVE
NYJ at IND (-11.0)
The Computer: NYJ…The Computer thinks it’s just too many points for Indy to lay at this time. IND by 9.8.
RC: IND…It’s a lot of points but the Jets are so banged up and lost (mentally), this could be a 20+ point blowout.
RC SURVIVOR PICK
CAR at LAC (-6.5)
The Computer: CAR…Carolina has hung in both of their two games with good teams, having chances to tie/win in the final 4-5 minutes of games. They aren’t ‘bad’. LAC by 5.8.
RC: LAC…Herbert starting makes me go LAC to win, and LAC is a potential playoff team with Herbert.
DET at ARI (-5.5)
The Computer: ARI…There is nothing the Lions are better at than ARI right now. ARI by 12.2. TC cannot use this for SURVIVOR because it used it last week.
RC: ARI…But I can use it for my survivor…but I won’t. Saving them for next week or the week after. This a REAL BET I’m making.
RC BLAZING FIVE
TB (-6.0) at DEN
The Computer: DEN…At the Denver climate, a scrappy team that keeps games close. Take the points. TB by 5.7.
RC: TB…It’s a lot of points but Denver is missing too many key pieces this game.
DAL at SEA (-5.0)
The Computer: SEA…Go with the hot hand. Dallas should be (0-2) right now. Seattle by 5.5.
RC: DAL…I’ll just take the points with a team that can get in a shootout with Seattle.
GB at NO (-3.0)
The Computer: NO…Michael Thomas would help swallow the -3.0, but GB will have an Adams issue potentially to offset some. At NO with a better defense, Saints by 3.2
RC: NO…with some confidence.
KC at BAL (-3.5)
The Computer: BAL…You take the better team destroying opponents. BAL by 6.8.
RC: KC…You take Mahomes with points any time you can.
Computer B5 (by biggest spread differentials):
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