2020 Week 4 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer)
All game picks ATS with me (RC) picking against The Computer with the THU morning spreads.
My Computer is analyzing/driving off of analysis of the players/units/coaching/matchup game analysis with some historical trending on things – but mostly it is looking at the better teams/matchups to win considering the likely lineups, weather, and injury reports, etc.
I’m looking at The Computer’s data for my picks but also considering my feel for the matchup, my scouting hunches/biases of the two teams, the injury report impacts, and some inputs from Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello along with any other smart handicapping data inputs I come across/discover.
We’re all just trying to find a way to get to the holy grail of 60%+ win ability. We’re all trying to compete in office pools and survivor contests. If I had a 70%+ system guaranteed all the time, I’d consider keeping it to myself. I’m trying to get there, and here’s what I am seeing/playing right now to do it. I’ll adjust as we go, with any injury news, etc. if needed.
Week 3 Results:
The Computer = 5-11-0 overall, 1-4-0 Blazing Five, Survivor Pool loss ATL
YTD = 20-27-1 (42.6%) overall, 6-9-0 Blazing Five (40.0%), Survivor Pool…IND(L), ARI(W), ATL (L)
R.C = 9-7-0 overall, 2-3-0 Blazing Five, Survivor Pool win w Indy
YTD = 23-24-1 (48.9% overall), 7-8-0 Blazing Five (46.7%), Survivor Pool…still alive PIT(W), GB(W), IND(W)
Professionals bettors got destroyed last week across the land…Vegas & friends did really well. In a season like none other, pro bettors are struggling. Time to throw out the old computer models and come up with a new plan…or flip coins. The Computer, after a nice Week 1 is dying. After my weak Week 1, I’m winning (overall) the last two weeks – picking more team v. team then worrying about betting trends. My B5 is just spinning its wheels. Let’s see if this week we can gain some traction.
Then best bet Week 4: Bet for fun/low amounts or bet on player props…trying to profit off 2020 season ATS seems to be a 50/50 shot in the dark right now.
The Computer: NYJ…Two bad wounded teams, take the one not starting a 3rd-string QB. Jets by 2.7.
RC: NYJ…I don’t care how weak Darnold is…he’s better than Brett Rypien.
IND (-2.5) at CHI
The Computer: IND…All the metrics are with Indy. Colts by 6.2.
RC: IND…I’m a touch nervous betting against Foles, but this should be a game of a (3-0) Indy vs. (0-3) CHI…then the line would’ve been -5-6.
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
NO (-4.0) at DET
The Computer: NO…The Saints can’t lose three in-a-row. NO by 8.8.
RC: NO…One of my favorite bets of the week.
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
ARI (-3.5) at CAR
The Computer: ARI…The Cardinals are better all around. ARI by 4.4.
RC: ARI…I so want to take CAR, but my head says this is a reversal of fortunes from last week's game.
JAX at CIN (-3.0)
The Computer: JAX…The Jags are a better team overall and getting points. JAX by 0.1.
RC: JAX…Plus, JAX with 10 days off for prep.
CLE at DAL (-4.5)
The Computer: DAL…CLE is due to get set back to reality. DAL by 7.7.
RC: DAL…DAL will turn this into a track meet and CLE can’t keep up with that.
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
MIN at HOU (-4.5)
The Computer: HOU…HOU has the better team considering who they’ve lost to. HOU by 6.1.
RC: HOU…I love HOU here as the team with the most BACK against the wall in the two 2019 playoff teams but now (0-3’s) battle.
SEA (-6.5) at MIA
The Computer: MIA…The home field is of value here on weather and MIA with 10 days off. SEA by 5.1.
RC: MIA…I’ll take Miami for the cover too.
LAC at TB (-7.0)
The Computer: LAC…it’s a lot of points for two physical teams clashing. TB by 2.5.
RC: LAC…I started to go with TB, but then to look at the matchups and how many points here…it’s too much to give to LAC. I wish Chris Harris was playing though.
*RC BLAZING FIVE* (change from JAX initially)
PIT (-1.0) at TEN (POSTPONED)
The Computer: PIT
BAL (-13.0) at WAS
The Computer: BAL…The Ravens beat good teams by 15+ routinely, what are they going to do to Washington? BAL by 20.7.
RC: BAL…especially coming off that MNF disaster…
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
**RC Survivor Pick**
NYG at LAR (-12.5)
The Computer: NYG…too many points to lay for an up & down/decent Rams team. LAR by 9.7.
RC: LAR…I assume the Rams will do to the Giants what the 49ers just did.
NE at KC (-7.0)
The Computer: KC…NE is overrated, KC by 8.6.
RC: KC…I think this is where Mahomes puts his stamp on the NFL 2020…crushing BAL then NE.
BUF (-3.0) at LV
The Computer: BUF…Vegas has a lot of injuries going into this. BUF by 5.9.
RC: BUF…MY Bills…the world is about to become fully aware of Josh Allen.
PHI at SF (-7.0)
The Computer: PHI…Too many points to lay in a battle of injured teams. SF by 6.4.
RC: SF…Philly going east-to-west with their awful team, I’ll take the well-coached team.
ATL at GB (-7.0)
The Computer: GB…Everything internally points to the GB, including the home field/ATL outside not as great. GB by 9.4.
RC: GB…I’d take ATL if I could fully know if Julio, McKinley, and Sheffield were playing.
Computer’s B5 (by biggest spread differentials it sees):
+4.5 LAC (midday bump THU)
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