2020 Week 5 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer + RC has found a new theory/trend!)
All game picks ATS with me (RC) picking against The Computer with the THU morning spreads.
My Computer is analyzing/driving off of analysis of the players/units/coaching/matchup game analysis with some historical trending on things – but mostly it is looking at the better teams/matchups to win considering the likely lineups, weather, and injury reports, etc.
I’m looking at The Computer’s data for my picks but also considering my feel for the matchup, my scouting hunches/biases of the two teams, the injury report impacts, and some inputs from Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello along with any other smart handicapping data inputs I come across/discover.
We’re all just trying to find a way to get to the holy grail of 60%+ win ability. We’re all trying to compete in office pools and survivor contests. If I had a 70%+ system guaranteed all the time, I’d consider keeping it to myself. I’m trying to get there, and here’s what I am seeing/playing right now to do it. I’ll adjust as we go, with any injury news, etc. if needed.
Week 4 Results:
The Computer = 9-6-1 overall, 3-1-1 Blazing Five, Survivor Pool win BAL
YTD = 29-32-2 (47.5%) overall, 9-10-1 Blazing Five (47.3%), Survivor Pool…IND(L), ARI(W), ATL (W), BAL (W)
R.C = 6-8-1 overall, 2-2-1 Blazing Five, Survivor Pool win w Indy
YTD = 29-32-2 (47.5% overall), 9-10-1 Blazing Five (47.3%), Survivor Pool…still alive PIT(W), GB(W), IND(W), LAR (W)
My new theory, a trend really…a simple way of betting you would say. I noticed a little/simple trend through the first 4 weeks and I’m going to follow it to make all picks – keeping it simple and taking a lot of my tape-watching and emotional bias out (because it’s not working/has me flirting +/- 50%). The Computer will stick with making picks based on ‘science’ -- the matchups + injuries + general betting history, etc.
My new simple formula for picking all games is this…
1) Take all the underdogs, regardless of how I feel.
2) Except always take the three definitive (to me) best teams in football no matter what the line is = those three teams are KC, BAL, BUF.
3) And never bet with the single worst team in football…the Jets.
4) I’ll do my Blazing Five from within those pick patterns.
If I followed that theme for the first four weeks of this season, my record ATS would have been…
Week 1 = 10-5-1
Week 2 = 10-6-0
Week 3 = 9-7-0
Week 4 = 10-4-1
I’d take that outcome…39-22-2 (63.9%).
Best Bet of Week 5: Once I go this way with my new trending, that trend will reverse and destroy me…but let’s take a ride…it’s not like my other theories are working all that great.
TB (-3.5) at CHI
The Computer: CHI…Tampa is (3-1) but they’ve scuffled a bit in all their games…getting it together late for solid wins. Going on the road against a solid defense…maybe CHI keeps this closer than expected and puts a scare into TB. Bucs by 3.2.
RC picks: CHI…Blindly taking the underdog, per my system. Not feeling great about it but sticking to the system.
CAR at ATL (-2.0)
The Computer: ATL…The Falcons are starting to get some defenders back healthy, hopefully…and they are due. They’ve been the better team in two of their last 3 games (until they blew it). ATL by 2.2.
RC picks: CAR…Blindly taking the underdog, per my system…AND I love it. Love the matchup here for CAR.
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
LV at KC (-13.0)
The Computer: KC…The Raiders have key injuries at CB and O-Line. KC by 14.8.
RC picks: KC…Blindly taking KC, per my system. It’s a lot of points, but it’s KC!
*COMPUTER SURVIVOR PICK*
DEN at NE (-10.0)
The Computer: NE…If Cam is back, this really favors NE for a big bounce back. Patriots (w Cam) by 13.3.
RC picks: DEN… Blindly taking the underdog, per my system. But I don’t like it.
LAR (-7.5) at WAS
The Computer: WAS…You have to love the line, and Washington hasn’t been bad all year. LAR by 2.9.
RC picks: WAS…Blindly taking the underdog, per my system. I love Washington here, and bet them early +9.0 this week.
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
JAX at HOU (-6.0)
The Computer: HOU…A lot of key injuries to deal with for JAX this week, too many to roll with them on against a desperate HOU team. Texans by 6.8.
RC picks: JAX…Blindly taking the underdog, per my system.
BUF (-8.5) at TEN
The Computer: BUF…Too much chaos with TEN to pick them right now, and Buffalo is very good. Bills by 9.8.
RC picks: BUF…Blindly taking BUF, per my system.
ARI (-7.0) at NYJ
The Computer: ARI…Budda Baker back would be huge, and the Jets have more injuries than most teams, and they stink to begin with. ARI by 10.4.
RC picks: ARI…Blindly taking the underdog, per my system.
*RC BLAZING FIVE* + *RC SURVIVOR PICK*
PHI at PIT (-7.0)
The Computer: PIT…Bad matchup for Philly. Steelers by 9.5.
RC picks: PHI…Blindly taking the underdog, per my system.
CIN at BAL (-13.0)
The Computer: BAL…The Ravens destroy every opponent except KC for the past 16 regular season games, and this will be no exception. Ravens by 18.1.
RC picks: BAL…Blindly taking BAL, per my system. This could be a bloodbath.
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
MIA at SF (-9.0)
The Computer: MIA…The Dolphins are gritty and SF is still dealing with a ton of secondary injuries. Miami keeps it within the spread. SF by 7.0.
RC picks: MIA…Blindly taking the underdog, per my system.
NYG at DAL (-9.5)
The Computer: DAL…If Dallas plays a fumble-free game, they might win games by 2+ scores a lot. This could be the start of ‘getting right’ with a weak offensive opponent. Dallas by 12.4.
RC picks: NYG…Blindly taking the underdog, per my system.
IND (-1.5) at CLE
The Computer: CLE…The Browns have momentum and Indy has a really bad QB. IND by 0.7.
RC picks: CLE…Blindly taking the underdog, per my system.
MIN at SEA (-7.0)
The Computer: SEA…this could be a shootout mess with 80+ points scored. Take Russell Wilson in a shootout. Seattle by 7.9.
RC picks: MIN…Blindly taking the underdog, per my system.
LAC at NO (-7.5)
The Computer: LAC…The Chargers are arguably the better team going into this. Saints have home field and coaching advantage. NO by 1.4.
RC picks: LAC…Blindly taking the underdog, per my system. And I wouldn’t be shocked if LAC won outright.
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
Good Luck with your picks this week!!!
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