2020 Week 6 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer)
All game picks ATS with me (RC) picking against The Computer with the THU morning spreads.
My Computer is analyzing/driving off of analysis of the players/units/coaching/matchup game analysis with some historical trending on things – but mostly it is looking at the better teams/matchups to win considering the likely lineups, weather, and injury reports, etc.
I’m looking at The Computer’s data for my picks but also considering my feel for the matchup, my scouting hunches/biases of the two teams, the injury report impacts, and some inputs from Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello along with any other smart handicapping data inputs I come across/discover.
We’re all just trying to find a way to get to the holy grail of 60%+ win ability. We’re all trying to compete in office pools and survivor contests. If I had a 70%+ system guaranteed all the time, I’d consider keeping it to myself. I’m trying to get there, and here’s what I am seeing/playing right now to do it. I’ll adjust as we go, with any injury news, etc. if needed.
Week 5 Results:
The Computer = 7-7-0 overall, 3-2-0 Blazing Five, Survivor Pool loss KC
YTD = 36-39-2 (48.0%) overall, 12-12-1 Blazing Five (50.0%), Survivor Pool…IND(L), ARI(W), ATL (W), BAL (W), KC(L)
R.C = 10-4-0 overall, 4-1-0 Blazing Five, Survivor Pool win w ARI
YTD = 39-36-2 (52.0% overall), 13-11-1 Blazing Five (54.2%), Survivor Pool…still alive PIT(W), GB(W), IND(W), LAR (W), ARI (W)
FROM LAST WEEK’S INTRO (and obviously I’m sticking with it): My new theory, a trend really…a simple way of betting you would say. I noticed a little/simple trend through the first 4 weeks and I’m going to follow it to make all picks – keeping it simple and taking a lot of my tape-watching and emotional bias out (because it’s not working/has me flirting +/- 50%). The Computer will stick with making picks based on ‘science’ -- the matchups + injuries + general betting history, etc.
My new simple formula for picking all games is this…
1) Take all the underdogs, regardless of how I feel.
2) Except always take the three definitive (to me) best teams in football no matter what the line is = those three teams are KC, BAL, BUF. (*Update: May drop BUF from this list, too many injuries)
3) And never bet with the single worst team in football…the Jets.
4) I’ll do my Blazing Five from within those pick patterns.
If I followed that theme for the first four weeks of this season, my record ATS would have been…
Week 1 = 10-5-1
Week 2 = 10-6-0
Week 3 = 9-7-0
Week 4 = 10-4-1
I’ll take that outcome…39-22-2 (63.9%).
UPDATE: Week 5 went 10-4-0…so, this is working for now.
CHI at CAR (-1.5)
The Computer: CAR…The better team covers at home. CAR by 3.1.
RC picks: CHI…taking the underdog per my system. I think Carolina love is getting over its skis a bit.
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
DET (-3.0) at JAX
The Computer: DET…Too many JAX injuries, Lions by 6.7.
RC picks: **UPDATE pick = JAX**...injury report looks much better this week for JAX.
*OLD PICK* DET…NOT taking the underdog per my system. *I may change this after practice reports THU because JAX has so many potential defensive losses they should be a -7.0+ dog.
ATL at MIN (-4.0)
The Computer: MIN…New coach doesn’t help, Vikings by 5.6.
RC picks: ATL…taking the underdog per my system.
HOU at TEN (3.0)
The Computer: TEN…Ride with one of the best teams in football since Tannehill took over. Titans by 6.8.
RC picks: HOU…taking the underdog per my system.
WAS at NYG (-3.0)
The Computer: WAS…You have to pick something here. Might as well take the points. Giants by 0.8.
RC picks: WAS…taking the underdog per my system. Two bad teams, gimme the one with the points.
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
CLE at PIT (-3.0)
The Computer: PIT…The Browns are getting ahead of themselves. Revenge game for PIT at home. Steelers by 4.8.
RC picks: CLE…taking the underdog per my system.
BAL (7.5) at PHI
The Computer: BAL…Ravens by 15.5 because they are dominant, and Philly is awful.
RC picks: BAL…taking the underdog per my system. I’ll never stop taking BAL in the regular season (unless the give KC points, then I took KC)
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
CIN at IND (-7.5)
The Computer: CIN…Too many points. Indy by 5.3.
RC picks: CIN…taking the underdog per my system. The Colts are not 7 points better than any team right now with Philip Rivers.
GB (1.0) at TB
The Computer: GB…Better QB wins in the end. GB by 2.3.
RC picks: TB…taking the underdog per my system.
LAR (-3.0) at SF
The Computer: LAR…Too many SF injuries. Rams by 6.4.
RC picks: SF…taking the underdog per my system. I expect SF bounces back hard after getting embarrassed last week.
NYJ at MIA (-9.0)
The Computer: MIA…Dolphins good enough to cover and may shutout NYJ. Miami by 11.4
RC picks: MIA…NOT taking NYJ ever per my system.
*RC SURVIVOR PICK (saving BAL for when I need them…anti-Jets we can ride)*
*RC BLAZING FIVE* **UPDATE from CIN original pick**
DEN at NE (10.0)
The Computer: NE…Pats too good for Lock/Rypien. Pats by 10.7.
RC picks: DEN…taking the underdog per my system.
ARI (-2.0) at DAL
The Computer: ARI…can’t go with Andy Dalton here and that shot O-Line. Arizona by 3.8.
RC picks: DAL…taking the underdog per my system.
KC (-3.5) at BUF
The Computer: KC…way too many injuries for Buffalo and KC coming off an embarrassment will roll over Buffalo. KC by 9.1.
RC picks: KC…taking KC as best team, per my system. Buffalo has too many injuries right now.
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
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