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2020 Week 7 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer + RC’s Hot Trend Continues but he’s defying it some this week)

Date:
October 22, 2020 11:21 AM
October 22, 2020 11:20 AM

2020 Week 7 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer + RC’s Hot Trend Continues but he’s defying it some this week)

 

All game picks ATS with me (RC) picking against The Computer with the THU morning spreads.

My Computer is analyzing/driving off of analysis of the players/units/coaching/matchup game analysis with some historical trending on things – but mostly it is looking at the better teams/matchups to win considering the likely lineups, weather, and injury reports, etc.

I’m looking at The Computer’s data for my picks but also considering my feel for the matchup, my scouting hunches/biases of the two teams, the injury report impacts, and some inputs from Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello along with any other smart handicapping data inputs I come across/discover.

We’re all just trying to find a way to get to the holy grail of 60%+ win ability. We’re all trying to compete in office pools and survivor contests. If I had a 70%+ system guaranteed all the time, I’d consider keeping it to myself. I’m trying to get there, and here’s what I am seeing/playing right now to do it. I’ll adjust as we go, with any injury news, etc. if needed.

 

Week 6 Results:

The Computer = 8-6-0 overall, 4-1-0 Blazing Five, Survivor Pool loss KC

YTD = 44-45-2 (49.4%) overall, 16-13-1 Blazing Five (55.2%), Survivor Pool…IND(L), ARI(W), ATL (W), BAL (W), KC(L), MIA(W)

 

R.C = 9-5-0 overall, 4-1-0 Blazing Five, Survivor Pool win w ARI

YTD = 48-41-2 (53.9% overall), 17-12-1 Blazing Five (58.6%), Survivor Pool…still alive PIT(W), GB(W), IND(W), LAR (W), ARI (W), MIA(W)

 

FROM WEEK 5’s INTRO (and obviously I’m sticking with it): My new theory, a trend really…a simple way of betting you would say. I noticed a little/simple trend through the first 4 weeks and I’m going to follow it to make all picks – keeping it simple and taking a lot of my tape-watching and emotional bias out (because it’s not working/has me flirting +/- 50%). The Computer will stick with making picks based on ‘science’ -- the matchups + injuries + general betting history, etc.

My new simple formula for picking all games is this…

1) Take all the underdogs, regardless of how I feel.

2) Except always take the three definitive (to me) best teams in football no matter what the line is = those three teams are KC, BAL, BUF. (*Update: May drop BUF from this list, too many injuries)

3) And never bet with the single worst team in football…the Jets.

4) I’ll do my Blazing Five from within those pick patterns.

 

If I followed that theme for the first four weeks of this season, my record ATS would have been…

Week 1 = 10-5-1

Week 2 = 10-6-0

Week 3 = 9-7-0

Week 4 = 10-4-1

I’ll take that outcome…39-22-2 (63.9%).

UPDATE: Week 5 went 10-4-0…so, this is working for now.

 

UPDATE: Week 6 went 9-5-0…so, this is six killer weeks in a row with this. Not changing off of it…except for I have three exceptions this week.

 

----------------------------------

 

NYG at PHI (-4.5)

The Computer: PHI…Giants unlikely to win two in a row, and you cannot count on Danny Demise (trademark pending). Eagles by 5.1

RC picks: NYG…taking the underdog per my system.

 

CLE (-3.5) at CIN

The Computer: CIN…Underdog upset as the Browns spiral further into the abyss. Bengals by 0.2

RC picks: CIN…taking the underdog per my system.

*COMPUTER BLAZING FIVE*

 

DAL at WAS (PK)

The Computer: DAL…Cowboys bounce back of a humiliation. Dallas by 1.4.

RC picks: WAS…taking the home team in a pick ‘em.

 

DET at ATL (-2.5)

The Computer: DET…Detroit has some playoff life with a win. ‘Hope’ for 2020 is within grasp. Falcons by 0.1.

RC picks: DET…taking the underdog per my system.

 

CAR at NO (-7.5)

The Computer: CAR…It’s a lot of points to give to a good/scrappy team. Saints by 4.0

RC picks: CAR…taking the underdog per my system.

*RC BLAZING FIVE*

 

BUF (-10.0) at NYJ

The Computer: BUF…Bills coming off two losses are better than that. Rights the ship here pre-NE week. Bills by 19.8.

RC picks: BUF…picking against the Jets always, per my system

*RC BLAZING FIVE*

*RC SURVIVOR PICK*

*COMPUTER SURVIVOR PICK*

*COMPUTER BLAZING FIVE*

 

GB (-3.5) at HOU

The Computer: GB…Packers bounce back off a humiliation and defeat weak teams, as they do. Packers by 5.7.

RC picks: GB…I have to break ranks with my system here. I like GB strong here.

 

SEA (-3.5) at ARI

The Computer: SEA…Arizona is a fraud. Seattle by 7.5.

RC picks: SEA…I have to break ranks with my system here #2.0.

*RC BLAZING FIVE*

*COMPUTER BLAZING FIVE*

 

SF at NE (-2.0)

The Computer: NE…The Pats are due/Belichick not letting them fall further, their season is slipping away and they can get back in everything with a win here. Key players return and Pats win by 2.9.

RC picks: SF…taking the underdog per my system.

 

KC (-9.5) at DEN

The Computer: KC…The last time they played in the snow with Lock at QB v. KC in 2019, the Chiefs were incredible and Denver was weather affected. Chiefs by 12.1.

RC picks: KC…always taking KC, per my system.

*RC BLAZING FIVE*

 

TB (-3.5) at LV

The Computer: LV…May change pick depending upon the LV O-Line situation/COVID. TB by 3.3

RC picks: LV…taking the underdog per my system.

 

PIT at TEN (-1.0)

The Computer: PIT…Toss up, take the point for what it is worth. TEN by 0.2

RC picks: PIT…taking the underdog per my system.

 

JAX at LAC (-8.0)

The Computer: LAC…Jags are falling apart and LAC off an extra week of prep with a golden rookie has a big, decisive win here. LAC by 12.1.

RC picks: LAC…I have to break ranks with my system here part III.

*COMPUTER BLAZING FIVE*

 

CHI at LAR (-6.0)

The Computer: CHI…Bears with 11 days rest/prep and are the better team all around. They can at least keep it close. Rams by 2.2.

RC picks: CHI…taking the underdog per my system.

*RC BLAZING FIVE*

*COMPUTER BLAZING FIVE*


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>