2020 Week 8 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer)
All game picks ATS with me (RC) picking against The Computer with the THU morning spreads.
My Computer is analyzing/driving off of analysis of the players/units/coaching/matchup game analysis with some historical trending on things – but mostly it is looking at the better teams/matchups to win considering the likely lineups, weather, and injury reports, etc.
I’m looking at The Computer’s data for my picks but also considering my feel for the matchup, my scouting hunches/biases of the two teams, the injury report impacts, and some inputs from Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello along with any other smart handicapping data inputs I come across/discover.
We’re all just trying to find a way to get to the holy grail of 60%+ win ability. We’re all trying to compete in office pools and survivor contests. If I had a 70%+ system guaranteed all the time, I’d consider keeping it to myself. I’m trying to get there, and here’s what I am seeing/playing right now to do it. I’ll adjust as we go, with any injury news, etc. if needed.
Week 7 Results:
The Computer = 7-7-0 overall, 2-3-0 Blazing Five
YTD = 51-52-2 (49.5%) overall, 18-16-1 Blazing Five (52.9%), Survivor Pool…IND(L), ARI(W), ATL (W), BAL (W), KC(L), MIA(W), BUF(W)
R.C = 10-4-0 overall, 3-2-0 Blazing Five
YTD = 58-45-2 (56.3% overall), 20-15-1 Blazing Five (57.1%), Survivor Pool…still alive PIT(W), GB(W), IND(W), LAR (W), ARI (W), MIA(W), BUF(W)
FROM WEEK 5’s INTRO (and obviously I’m sticking with it…kinda): My new theory, a trend really…a simple way of betting you would say. I noticed a little/simple trend through the first 4 weeks and I’m going to follow it to make all picks – keeping it simple and taking a lot of my tape-watching and emotional bias out (because it’s not working/has me flirting +/- 50%). The Computer will stick with making picks based on ‘science’ -- the matchups + injuries + general betting history, etc.
My new simple formula for picking all games is this…
1) Take all the underdogs, regardless of how I feel.
2) Except always take the three definitive (to me) best teams in football no matter what the line is = those three teams are KC, BAL, BUF. (*Update: May drop BUF from this list, too many injuries)
3) And never bet with the single worst team in football…the Jets.
4) I’ll do my Blazing Five from within those pick patterns.
If I followed that theme for the first four weeks of this season, my record ATS would have been…
Week 1 = 10-5-1
Week 2 = 10-6-0
Week 3 = 9-7-0
Week 4 = 10-4-1
I’ll take that outcome…39-22-2 (63.9%).
UPDATE: Week 5 went 10-4-0…so, this is working for now.
UPDATE: Week 6 went 9-5-0…so, this is six killer weeks in a row with this. Not changing off it…except for I have three exceptions this week.
UPDATE: Week 7…I, RC, deviated some from my system and I won more than lost on my audible calls. If I had just stuck to my original concept…the concept/system went 8-6-0. Still a winner it’s been a winner every week since Week 1.
Week 8 PLAN – I am going to deviate some more from the hard & fast system this week on a few games because creeping into the equation now are teams ‘giving up’…ones where they see their organization dumping players in trade and rumored on others…I don’t want to play teams rebelling on their employer in 2-3 spots. I’ll explain on my picks below.
ATL at CAR (-2.5)
The Computer: CAR…the better team with a nice line under 3.0. Panthers by 5.7.
RC picks: CAR…going with my theory if teams where management is giving up, so the players will too if they get down quick.
IND (-3.0) at DET
The Computer: IND…The Lions have won two games in a row, keeping this line lower than it should be. Indy can cover with Darius Leonard back and an extra week off. Colts by 6.1.
RC picks: IND…I cannot believe this line either. The Lions beating the Jags and Falcons doesn’t impress me. I should take the dog, but I’m not.
MIN at GB (-6.5)
The Computer: GB…Better team at home, a betting line under 7.0 is key. Packers by 8.1
RC picks: GB…going with my theory if teams where management is giving up, so the players will too if they get down quick.
NE at BUF (-3.5)
The Computer: NE…This is the type moment Belichick rises to. Season saved with a gritty run-game led win. Patriots by 1.0
RC picks: BUF…I am sticking with a theory I’ve had since the summer – the Bills have been waiting for this game and the Patriots aren’t going to know what hit them. The baton is passed to Sean McDermott here.
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
*COMPUTER B5* Opposite RC’s B5
TEN (-5.5) at CIN
The Computer: TEN…Tennessee is going to be able to keep Joe Burrow off the field and take the risk off ‘keeping it close’ off the table. Titans by 7.9.
RC picks: CIN…taking the underdog per my system.
LV at CLE (-2.5)
The Computer: LV…Losing to TB is not a crime. We all forgot they thumped KC the prior week…and we all forgot the Browns stink. Raiders by 6.0
RC picks: LV…taking the underdog per my system.
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
NYJ at KC (-19.5)
The Computer: NYJ…way too many points. Chiefs by 17.2
RC picks: NYJ…my system says take KC always, but this is way too many points for the NFL.
LAR (-3.5) at MIA
The Computer: MIA…The toughest road game in the NFL in the COVID era. Rams by 2.4.
RC picks: MIA…taking the underdog per my system. Plus, I think Miami has too good a defense for the Rams to lay 3.5 at home.
NO (-4.5) at CHI
The Computer: NO…The better everything wins. Saints win by 4.8
RC picks: CHI…taking the underdog per my system. The cold weather is the Bears’ friend here.
SF at SEA (-3.0)
The Computer: SEA…Classic bounce back for SEA and reality check for hot SF. Seattle by 6.2
RC picks: SF…taking the underdog per my system.
DAL at PHI (9.5)
The Computer: PHI…how can you bet on Ben DiNucci behind this O-Line? Eagles by 7.7
RC picks: PHI…DiNucci factor and the weather facing a team definitely quitting on it’s management.
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
LAC (-3.0) at DEN
The Computer: DEN…tough road game for all comers, and Denver is a tough nut. LAC by 2.2
RC picks: LAC…What should be one of the top teams in the NFL facing a bottom 10 team, albeit at Denver. If Chris Harris is back, this is a lock.
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
PIT at BAL (-3.5)
The Computer: BAL…an extra week to prepare for the better team. Ravens by 6.8
RC picks: BAL…I believe BAL is the better team, and my system says always take them in the regular season.
*RC BLAZING FIVE*
TB (-10.5) at NYG
The Computer: NYG…It’s a lot of points for a scrappy defense at home on MNF in the cold for Brady. Bucs by 9.6.
RC picks: TB…too many weapons to showcase on a Monday Night. No way NYG can score more than 10pts, so you know TB goes 25+ here, right?
*RC SURVIVOR* Going to use TB and save KC for another day.
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