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2020 Week 9 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer)

Date:
November 5, 2020 10:10 AM
November 5, 2020 10:08 AM

2020 Week 9 Picks: All Games ATS, Blazing Five, Survivor Picks (RC v. The Computer)

 

All game picks ATS with me (RC) picking against The Computer with the THU morning spreads.

My Computer is analyzing/driving off of analysis of the players/units/coaching/matchup game analysis with some historical trending on things – but mostly it is looking at the better teams/matchups to win considering the likely lineups, weather, and injury reports, etc.

I’m looking at The Computer’s data for my picks but also considering my feel for the matchup, my scouting hunches/biases of the two teams, the injury report impacts, and some inputs from Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello along with any other smart handicapping data inputs I come across/discover.

We’re all just trying to find a way to get to the holy grail of 60%+ win ability. We’re all trying to compete in office pools and survivor contests. If I had a 70%+ system guaranteed all the time, I’d consider keeping it to myself. I’m trying to get there, and here’s what I am seeing/playing right now to do it. I’ll adjust as we go, with any injury news, etc. if needed.

 

Week 8 Results:

The Computer = 8-6-0 overall, 4-1-0 Blazing Five

YTD = 59-58-2 (50.4%) overall, 22-17-1 Blazing Five (56.4%), Survivor Pool…IND(L), ARI(W), ATL (W), BAL (W), KC(L), MIA(W), BUF(W), TB(W)

 

R.C = 6-8-0 overall, 2-3-0 Blazing Five

YTD = 64-53-2 (54.7% overall), 22-17-1 Blazing Five (56.4%), Survivor Pool…still alive PIT(W), GB(W), IND(W), LAR(W), ARI(W), MIA(W), BUF(W), TB(W)

 

=========================

FROM WEEK 5’s INTRO (and obviously I’m sticking with it…kinda): My new theory, a trend really…a simple way of betting you would say. I noticed a little/simple trend through the first 4 weeks and I’m going to follow it to make all picks – keeping it simple and taking a lot of my tape-watching and emotional bias out (because it’s not working/has me flirting +/- 50%). The Computer will stick with making picks based on ‘science’ -- the matchups + injuries + general betting history, etc.

My new simple formula for picking all games is this…

1) Take all the underdogs, regardless of how I feel.

2) Except always take the three definitive (to me) best teams in football no matter what the line is = those three teams are KC, BAL, BUF. (*Update: May drop BUF from this list, too many injuries)

3) And never bet with the single worst team in football…the Jets.

4) I’ll do my Blazing Five from within those pick patterns.

 

If I followed that theme for the first four weeks of this season, my record ATS would have been…

Week 1 = 10-5-1

Week 2 = 10-6-0

Week 3 = 9-7-0

Week 4 = 10-4-1

I’ll take that outcome…39-22-2 (63.9%).

======================

 

UPDATE: Week 5 went 10-4-0…so, this is working for now.

UPDATE: Week 6 went 9-5-0…so, this is six killer weeks in a row with this. Not changing off it…except for I have three exceptions this week.

UPDATE: Week 7…I, RC, deviated some from my system and I won more than lost on my audible calls. If I had just stuck to my original concept…the concept/system went 8-6-0. Still a winner…a been a winner every week since Week 1.

UPDATE: Week 8…I, RC, should’ve just stuck with the system and stop trying to overthink everything. The system this week went 10-4-0….meaning the system has not had a losing record all year in any week. I’m going to stick with system (unless I cannot help myself!)

 

 

Week 9 PLAN – I plan to stick tight to my system…and they system is = take all dogs except take KC or BAL every time and go against the Jets every time.  

 

----------------------------------

 

GB (-7.0) at SF

The Computer: GB…the COVID inactives + QB edge reside with Green Bay. Packers by 9.8.

RC picks: SF…per my system.

 

SEA (-3.0) at BUF

The Computer: SEA…Buffalo coming off an emotional win last week, gets smacked this week. Seahawks by 5.2.

RC picks: BUF…per my system.

 

DEN at ATL (-4.0)

The Computer: DEN…Taking the better defense to keep it close. Falcons by 0.2.

RC picks: DEN…per my system.

*RC BLAZING FIVE*

*COMPUTER B5*

 

CHI at TEN (-6.0)

The Computer: CHI…Another take the better defense to keep it close. Titans by 1.7.

RC picks: CHI…per my system.

*RC BLAZING FIVE*

*COMPUTER B5*

 

DET at MIN (-4.0)

The Computer: DET…Too many points to lay for the Vikes as a favorite. Vikings by 2.3.

RC picks: DET…per my system.

 

BAL (-2.5) at IND

The Computer: BAL…The Ravens destroy weak regular season opponents, and the Colts haven’t played anyone yet this season of note. Ravens by 13.4.

RC picks: BAL…per my system.

*RC BLAZING FIVE*

*COMPUTER B5*

 

CAR at KC (-10.5)

The Computer: KC…You can’t bet against KC covering unless the line is astronomical, and this isn’t. Chiefs by 14.4

RC picks: KC…per my system.

*RC BLAZING FIVE*

*COMPUTER B5*

*RC SURVIVOR PICK* -- I’m going to play my KC card here because I don’t trust NE at NYJ, and I’m going to play against NYJ Weeks 11-14, and 16…Weeks 10 and 15, I cannot/do not want to use KC.

 

HOU (-6.5) at JAX

The Computer: HOU…Safe to bet against Jake Luton, blind, and see what happens. Texans by 9.3.

RC picks: JAX…per my system.

 

NYG at WSH (-3.0)

The Computer: NYG…It would be an upset call outright, if not NYG having played last Monday. Football Team by 0.3.

RC picks: NYG…per my system.

 

LV at LAC (-1.0)

The Computer: LV…The Chargers keep finding ways to lose and finding ways to have bad injury reports. Raiders by 5.1

RC picks: LV…per my system.

*RC BLAZING FIVE*

*COMPUTER B5*

 

PIT (-14.0) at DAL

The Computer: DAL…The Steelers coming off an emotional/physical win is in a tougher spot, plus traveling, plus they haven’t blown out any opponent yet except CLE. The Steelers have scuffled with many weaker opponents this year before pulling ahead in the 4th-quarter. Steelers by 12.7.

RC picks: DAL…per my system.

*COMPUTER SURVIVOR PICK*

 

MIA at ARI (-4.5)

The Computer: ARI…Miami doesn’t have enough pass rush to totally consume Kyler, and then there’s the Tua factor. Cards by 5.5.

RC picks: MIA…per my system.

 

NO at TB (4.5)

The Computer: NO…Just taking the points in a game that should be a war. Bucs by 4.0.

RC picks: NO…per my system.

 

NE (-7.5) at NYJ

The Computer: NYJ…This is where the Patriots sink to a new low. – scuffling with the Jets before pulling it out in the end. Pats by 5.5

RC picks: NE…per my system.



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>