2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Kickoff Week Notes (9/9/21)….
Couple reminders before we get into it…
1) Video Q&A THU night pre-kick TB-DAL -- start time 6:45pmET and will end by 8pmET/before kickoff. Details will be posted for subscribers on FFM (same old instructions).
2) Video Q&A Sunday morning (and every Sunday morning in-season), per usual. Details on start time (we may begin earlier than normal for Week 1 excitement) to be posted this weekend.
3) If you don’t have it already, download the FFM App and enable notifications. Several times per season, I have key information 5 minutes to an hour to a day before it breaks publicly…I send out alerts via the App and it will pop up on your cell phone or tablet if you have the notifications enabled. As well, every time we post an item or update something on FFM…we send an App alert to let everyone know.
My commentary on a couple topics of interest…
-- The AFC South might really suck…amiright? Houston is dreadful. Jacksonville is maybe a step better dreadful than Houston. If Tennessee flops without Arthur Smith and Carson Wentz doesn’t turn a corner…it's a great division to have on the schedule rotation in general…and for your Fantasy DST.
The two divisions getting the AFC South this year: the NFC West and AFC East.
Jumping thoughts, but connected, the AFC East also has two rookies starting at QB and an awful Tua. It’s a pretty favorable division to face.
Who is the HUGE beneficiary of the AFC East QB issues PLUS graced with the AFC South on the schedule rotation = The Buffalo Bills and their DST.
Another weak division in the NFL is the NFC South, which has Winston-Darnold suddenly in place…with Tampa Bay as the scary team. The AFC East/Buffalo draws this division in the schedule rotation as well.
In addition to the AFC East issues, the AFC South gift, and the falling down NFC South…Buffalo also drew three division winners on their schedule rotation (to match them finishing 1st in their division). They got weaker offenses in 2021 from the 2020 division winners – Washington (the weakest offense of the 2020 division winners) and Pittsburgh, who died to the finish last year and lost all their core O-Linemen.
It’s possible Buffalo-DST’s toughest matchups are Week 5 at KC then Week 14 at Tampa Bay…and all favorable, if things fall right, in all the other games.
Buffalo winning 13+ games, challenging for a #1 seed in the AFC, and being a top 1-2-3 DST in Fantasy…are all possibilities given this schedule fortuitousness.
-- A Justin Herbert ‘buy low’ moment…?
Keep your eye on/keep you powder dry in case this happens (if you want in on Herbert):
People are hopeful on Herbert, for sure, but there is also a subconscious fear/wonder if he’s great or just had a moment last year. I hear the word ‘regression’ a lot – which is a lofty way of saying…I don’t trust what this player did last year, in my heart of hearts.
As we move away from a player’s rookie season…the player’s FF value starts to fall like driving a new car off the dealer’s parking lot. Thus…Burrow and Herbert are boring compared to the great Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Trevor Lawrence. Joe Burrow is so 2019…
If in Week 1, Washington’s defense squashes the Chargers…and Herbert has a bad FF game with this top defense making him look foolish…PANIC will set in for some Herbert owners. It will be the one time to strike at what will be his low point for 2021…and maybe for the next 2-3-4 years.
Just a thought – to sit and wait and pounce that Tuesday following Week 1.
Of course, if Herbert blows through this Washington defense with his new upgraded O-Line…then the Chargers are going to the playoffs and possibly toppling KC for the AFC West, and you’re never acquiring Herbert for anything near reasonable prices again.
-- An audience member had a question about Laviska Shenault being a possible ‘upside/outta nowhere player of the week’ at WR. I thought I’d copy/paste my response on it for any Shenault people out there:
I worry a touch about Desmond King on him...and I'm not in love with Shenault outside of a lot of behind the LOS catches, but that's still a good thing for PPR. I don't think he'll score any touchdowns. I think he's bloated/slower Sterling Shepard -- 5-6 catches, 50-60 yards, no TDs too often. It's not out of bounds to make that call for Shenault as an upside guy...but I'm more neutral on it. Remind me/needle me if you get it right!
-- Malcolm Butler was placed on a special exemption list, confirming he is stepping away from football for whatever reason…he may not return. It’s a blow to the hot Arizona-DST projection we have…Butler was a starter and a leader, now ARI falls back on depth to Robert Alford with now rookie Marco Wilson having to step up. It’s the bad news for the Cards-DST.
The good news is – Chandler Jones is staying, so that front line is pretty salty with veteran names…if they still have the juice in the tank.
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