2021 FAUX 1.0 (Computer Simulated Season) by FFM *AFC Wild Card Playoffs
It’s Faux season! The time of the year where we run an early computer simulation for the upcoming season…generating all the records for the regular season, playing through the playoffs, and declaring a Super Bowl winner.
We do the Faux season for fun but mostly to start to try to identify NFL over/under win total bets we can capitalize on for the upcoming season. It starts with projecting the season.
For the past few years, it’s been R.C./the FFM Computer model and top NFL Mock Draft Guru/Football Analyst Xavier Cromartie running their Faux seasons and presenting for comparing and contrasting. We’ve expanded the Faux seasons to get more input. This year, we also have Bet The Close podcast’s handicapping guru Chris Bilello running his Faux season and FFM/CFM football scout Ross Jacobs running his projected 2021 season.
The series will run for 11 straight days – three-week snapshots at a time, then the playoffs, up through the Super Bowl. The four analyst’s series will post at the same time each day -- 9amET (Xavier), 12pm ET (Chris), 4pm ET (RC), 8pm ET (Ross).
None of us knows who projected what – the individual results were submitted, and we are all finding out who projected what as the series unfolds. We’ll see what consensus or running themes unfold. This is Faux 1.0…based on what we all know early June 2021.
#1 seed (bye) Kansas City (14-3)
#7 Pittsburgh (9-8) at #2 Buffalo (13-4)
Buffalo wins 92% of the simulations – the Steelers are again no match for the Bills. The Steelers are breathing their last breaths as a playoff team/as a good team…and the Bills put them out of their misery here.
#6 Denver (10-7) at #3 Cleveland (10-7)
Cleveland wins 68% of the simulations – two similar teams (good O-Lines, good defense, solid but stuffy offense), but the Browns have the home field advantage and advance.
#5 L.A. Chargers (11-6) at #4 Indianapolis (10-7)
The Chargers win 59% of the simulations – LAC had the better record going in and playing in a dome is advantage Herbert, and they move on.
#5 L.A. Chargers (11-6) at #1 Kansas City (14-3)
#3 Cleveland (10-7) at #2 Buffalo (13-4)
***The 2021 FFM Draft Guide Package is now available – see the FFM homepage for more information, including Combo deals with the In-Season Package and Dynasty Stash reporting.
2021 College Football Metrics subscriptions are still available – all the NFL Draft/rookie prospect scouting reports, Dynasty Rookie Draft (weekly top 350) coverage and analysis PLUS our annual Devy scouting report/rankings summer series begins in July.***
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