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2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks: Divisional Playoffs (UPDATE)

Date:
January 19, 2022 5:02 PM
January 21, 2022 8:20 AM

2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks: Divisional Playoffs

 

Playoff results so far:

 

Best Bet: 1-0 (100%)

Overall ATS: 4-2 (66.7%)

No spread picks: 5-1 (83.3%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 1-1 (100.0%), 1-1 ATS (100.0%)

 

 

2021 Regular Season:

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 46-44 (51.1%)

Best Bet: 12-6 (66.7%)

Survivor Pool: kicked out Wk9 (LAR-GB-CAR-BUF-NE-PIT-ARI-CIN-DAL-TB-CLE-BAL-IND-SEA-MIA-LAC-SF-TEN)

Overall ATS: 146-125-1 (53.9%)

No spread picks: 174-97-1 (64.2%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 18-16 (52.9%), 21-14 ATS (60.0%)

 

 

This week’s picks (will update as injury news hits or a big spread change):

 

SF at GB (-6.0)

The Computer says… GB by 8.1 (a 2.1 spread differential)

I always bet on Green Bay at Lambeau in Dec./Jan.

Since the weather turned, at home, they’ve won by 8 or more points five of their last 6 games at home this season (starting mid-Nov.)

LAR at TB (-3.0)

The Computer says…TB by 4.9 (a 1.9 spread differential)

The Rams beating up Arizona on live cable television is puffing up the Rams. You might get some of this at -2.5, which is great with TB.

The Bucs offense is better, and their defense is back to full strength and is better than the Rams. I’ll take the Brady team over the Stafford team every time.

The availability of OLs Wirfs and Jensen could/will change our models/spread differentials.

*UPDATE based on the latest injury reports on Wirfs and Jensen.

 

BUF at KC (-1.5) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says… BUF by 0.3 (a 1.8 spread differential)

I won’t be surprised if either team wins or fails here. The Chiefs are highly overrated in general, and them whooping the Steelers last week is meaningless...so I’ll just take the points to make a pick. 

CIN at TEN (-3.5)

The Computer says… TEN by 2.4 (a 1.1 spread differential)

We're gonna keep riding Cincy. The Computer says they’re the best team in the AFC (since like Week 15-16), flawed or young as they might be…there are issues with all the other AFC teams too. I won’t really bet this because so much of this hinges on how much Derrick Henry is ready to go. If Henry were out, I think Cincy should then be the favorite and a real bet with getting points. With Henry back, we assume, we don’t know how ready or in what condition his foot is in.

*UPDATED for the likelihood Henry is playing and will be totally fine to take a heavier workload, and more study on this game -- Tennessee is just so good, and obvious in this spot with a bye, homefield, all their players getting healthy at the right time, Ogunjobi out, etc.)



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>