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2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 10 *SAT morning update

Date:
November 10, 2021 8:52 PM
November 13, 2021 9:30 AM

2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 10

 

 

Last week/Week 9’s results…

 

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 2-3 (40.0%)

Best Bet: 0-1 (00%)

Survivor Pool: LOST (DAL)

Overall ATS: 6-8 (43%)

No spread picks: 9-5 (64%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 1-0 (100.0%), 1-0 ATS (100.0%)

 

Season-to-date:

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 23-22 (51.1%)

Best Bet: 6-3 (66.7%)

Survivor Pool: kicked out Wk9 (LAR-GB-CAR-BUF-NE-PIT-ARI-CIN-DAL)

Overall ATS: 71-64-1 (52.6%)

No spread picks: 88-48 (64.7%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 12-9 (57.1%), 14-7 ATS (66.7%)

 

 

This week’s picks (will update as injury news hits or a big spread change):

 

CLE at NE (-2.0) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says… CLE by 2.7 (a 4.7 spread differential)

The Browns are better at every position over NE and are starting to get healthy in all the key spots…except Chubb-Felton may be out with COVID, but then Harris-Stevenson may be out with concussions. I like CLE of the outright win here.

 

SEA at GB (-3.0)

The Computer says… GB by 5.9 (a 2.9 spread differential)

If GB has Rodgers, then they win. If they have Rodgers-Stokes…they cover. If they have Rodgers-Stokes-Bakhtiari…they win by 10+.

 

CAR at ARI (-10.5)

The Computer says… ARI by 13.3 (a 2.8 spread differential)

P.J. Walker is not good, and Arizona is probably the best team in the NFL, and Colt McCoy is fine enough against the likes of Carolina.

 

NO at TEN (-3.0) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN* *UPDATED from TEN win but NO cover to NO wins based on TEN defensive injury report.

If Taysom Hill starts, we’ll call for the outright win for the Saints.

PHI at DEN (-2.5) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN* *UPDATED from DEN win but Philly cover to Philly outright win on DEN OL injury report.

The Computer says… PHI by 0.3 (a 2.8 spread differential)

The momentum is with Denver, but that means (in the weird NFL) that they will fall out of nowhere – so, I’ll take the points with two mediocre teams playing.

  

--BLAZING FIVE ABOVE--

KC (-2.5) at LV

The Computer says… LV by 0.2 (a 2.7 spread differential)

Monster game, at LV…and the Raiders are just playing better football. I give up on KC until I see evidence to do otherwise. KC is very lucky they are not 3-6. The Raiders are 2-1 with their new coaching staff…and they could’ve been 3-0 under the new staff. Go with the better team…the tougher, better coached team.

 

MIN at LAC (-3.0)

The Computer says… LAC by 5.6 (a 2.6 spread differential)

The Dalvin Cook news is making a bad situation even worse. LAC is already better, but the Cook cloud helps the Vikes continue to fade.

 

DET at PIT (-9.0)

The Computer says… PIT by 6.6 (a 2.4 spread differential)

The Steelers are a bad good team and shouldn’t be this big a favorite over any team.

 

TB (-9.5) at WSH

The Computer says… TB by 11.4 (a 1.9 spread differential)

Too many injuries on the WSH O-Line. Washington will be lucky to score 10-14 pts, and Tampa should post 24+ easily.

*SURVIVOR PICK* Trying to get back on track in Survivor.

  

BUF (-12.5) at NYJ

The Computer says… BUF by 14.0 (a 1.5 spread differential)

Yes, the Bills flopped vs. JAX, but the Jets have been getting creamed lately…and this is a spot for the Bills to make a statement.

 

ATL at DAL (-9.5)

The Computer says… DAL by 7.3 (a 2.2 spread differential)

It’s a lot of points to put out there IF Tyron Smith is out again, if Tyron starts practicing in full by week’s end, we flip this to take Dallas and lay the big points.

 

JAX at IND (-10.5)

The Computer says… IND by 9.2 (a 1.3 spread differential)

It will be interesting to see if the Jags carry the Week 9 momentum over to disrupt a still-shaky Colts team. The Jags have such a good O-Line and D-Line, you don’t want to give them a ton of points.

 

LAR (-4.0) at SF

The Computer says… LAR by 4.8 (a 1.2 spread differential)

The 49ers last stand…maybe they can cover on MNF. Minus top OL Mike McGlinchey it looks very uphill. I have to take the better team to win/cover here.

 

BAL (-7.5) at MIA

The Computer says… BAL by 8.1 (a 0.6 spread differential)

You have to go Lamar over Jacoby. If Tua was 100%, I’d take the points -- but with Brissett we go BAL. 


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>