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2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 11 (SUN updates for early injury reports))

Date:
November 18, 2021 11:02 AM
November 21, 2021 7:21 AM

2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 11

 

 

Last week/Week 10’s results…

 

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 3-2 (60.0%)

Best Bet: 0-1 (00%)

Survivor Pool: LOST (TB)

Overall ATS: 6-8 (43%)

No spread picks: 6-7 (64%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 1-1 (50.0%), 1-1 ATS (50.0%)

 

Season-to-date:

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 26-24 (52.0%)

Best Bet: 6-4 (60.0%)

Survivor Pool: kicked out Wk9 (LAR-GB-CAR-BUF-NE-PIT-ARI-CIN-DAL-TB)

Overall ATS: 77-72-1 (51.7%)

No spread picks: 94-55 (63.1%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 13-10 (56.5%), 15-9 ATS (62.5%)

 

 

This week’s picks (will update as injury news hits or a big spread change):

  

 

MIA (-3.0) at NYJ

The Computer says… MIA by 8.9 (a 5.9 spread differential)

I have no words for what Robert Saleh is doing with Joe Flacco here, but he’s lost the locker room on that move. The Dolphins are going to crush the Jets here.

 

WSH at CAR (-3.5)

The Computer says… CAR by 7.7 (a 4.2 spread differential)

The momentum of Cam as full starter getting announced that way at home, coming off a huge win – the Panthers ride that to a big win against a weak Washington team that won’t follow up their TB shocker.

 

PIT at LAC (-5.5)

The Computer says… LAC by 9.7 (a 4.2 spread differential)

The Chargers are in a good spot to win here as it is, but it’s pushed even hotter by T.J. Watt being out…and probably Minkah Fitzpatrick out, and possibly Joe Haden out…and maybe Big Ben out.

 

SF (-6.5) at JAX

The Computer says… SF by 3.1 (a 3.4 spread differential)

The Jags are starting to become a dangerous defense to face. The 49ers coming off a big win could be looking right past the Jags on a semi-short week.

  

ARI (-2.5) at SEA

The Computer says… SEA by 1.0 (a 3.5 spread differential)

I have already bet on Seattle here, hedging that Arizona won’t have Kyler or McCoy this week. If they do get either one back, I will put some money on Arizona to minimize my exposure…but I’m all-in Seattle on my QB fears for Arizona. If I get Streveler starting here…I love this bet with Seattle. We’ll see/this analysis/spread differential will change when we know exactly.

-- BLAZING FIVE ABOVE --

 

BAL (-5.0) at CHI *SWITCH on the LJax news

The Computer says… BAL by 4.0 (a 1.0 spread differential)

The Ravens with 10 days off to think about getting smoked by Miami on TNF Week 10…they take down the weak Bears with impunity.

DAL at KC (-2.5) *Tyron Smith out is a killer here. Switch from KC to DAL.

The Computer says… KC by 2.8 (a 0.3 spread differential)

Org. Comments: In general, the Cowboys are a better team/a top 5-7 NFL teams -- and KC has been whacked by any top opponents this year (BUF, TEN, LAC, BAL).

 

NYG at TB (-11.0)

The Computer says… TB by 8.6 (a 2.4 spread differential)

If this was a 4pm game at NYG, in colder gloomy weather, I’d take the G-Men to win outright IF Saquon is back. But putting this game on a showcase/MNF is good for Brady, and the Bucs coming off a beating last week…a lot of circumstances in Tampa’s favor to hold off the upstart Giants.

 

IND at BUF (-7.0)

The Computer says… BUF by 8.8 (a 1.8 spread differential)

The Colts aren’t great against physically tough teams – they almost bowed to the Jags last week despite a 17-0 head start. They were outplayed most of that game…it’s just Trevor Lawrence sucks too much to get victories like that. The Colts at cold, possibly rainy Buffalo bow to the tougher Bills.

 

CIN (-2.0) at LV *SWITCH TO CIN win and LV cover

The Computer says… CIN by 0.3 (a 1.7 spread differential)

The Raiders are better than the beat down they got on SNF to KC. These are both solid middle-of-the-pack teams, I’ll take the home team in that.

 

DET at CLE (-11.5)

The Computer says… CLE by 10.2 (a 1.3 spread differential)

The Lions might go with Tim Boyle…and that might be the best thing that’s ever happened to Detroit this season. They need some kinda curve ball to try and get a win. The Browns may bounce back off that humiliating loss to NE last week, but they might also have been slayed and are going to lay another egg here. I’ll just take the points.  

*SURVIVOR PICK* Using CLE over TEN, because the Titans have several options to use them ahead. The Browns do not, this is it. I’ve lost 3 survivor picks in a row, so what do I know…

 

GB (-2.5) at MIN *SWITCH due to Rodgers toe news

The Computer says… GB by 0.7 (a 1.2 spread differential)

The Packers are playing so well right now, and Aaron Jones being out might be a boost for GB…and if David Bakhtiari comes back here – all good for Green Bay.

 

HOU at TEN (-10.0)

The Computer says… TEN by 8.9 (a 1.1 spread differential)

Houston is due to play a good game, and Tennessee is very due to lay an egg. This is the perfect spot to get caught napping.

 

NE (-6.5) at ATL

The Computer says… NE by 7.2 (a 0.7 spread differential)

If Cordarrelle Patterson can go pretty normal, ATL can cover this. The Pats are way better than the Falcons, but NE is due for a letdown…and a TNF game at ATL might be the spot where the Pats are looking past this game to the TEN-BUF games after. 



NO at PHI (-2.5) *SWITCH BASED ON THE SAINTS VAST INJURY REPORT*

The Computer says… PHI by 1.8 (a 0.7 spread differential)

The Saints are awesome against the run…and the Eagles' rise has come from the run game. Saints won’t lose three in-a-row.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>