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2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 12

Last week/Week 11’s results…

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 2-3 (40.0%)

Best Bet: 1-0 (100%)

Survivor Pool: WIN (CLE)

Overall ATS: 8-7 (53%)

No spread picks: 10-5 (67%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 0-0 (0.0%), 0-0 ATS (0.0%)

Season-to-date:

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 28-27 (50.9%)

Best Bet: 7-4 (63.6.0%)

Survivor Pool: kicked out Wk9 (LAR-GB-CAR-BUF-NE-PIT-ARI-CIN-DAL-TB-CLE)

Overall ATS: 85-79-1 (51.8%)

No spread picks: 104-60 (63.4%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 13-10 (56.5%), 15-9 ATS (62.5%)

This week’s picks (will update as injury news hits or a big spread change):

BUF (-6.0) at NO

The Computer says… BUF by 11.3 (a 5.3 spread differential)

Buffalo lost a little fluky last week. Their pass game/Josh Allen is really working well right now, but last week a ton of drops in the rain – no weather issues this week for this high functioning offense. The Saints have been playing really bad football the past three weeks…make it four here with so many key injuries for NO.

If Terron Armstead is out for this game, then it is a lock.

CHI (-3.0) at DET *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says… DET by 0.1 (a 3.1 spread differential)

If Jared Goff is at QB…if he goes the whole game, the Lions get their first win on Thanksgiving in front of a good crowd against a Bears team that’s missing key players and the current coaching staff down to their final weeks of employment…and they know it. The Bears players are not going circle wagons behind Nagy.

ATL (-2.5) at JAX *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says… JAX by 0.5 (a 3.0 spread differential)

One of the only teams worse than Jacksonville is…Atlanta. Here’s to hoping that JAX defense of Weeks 10-11 shows up here for this bet.

SEA at WSH (-1.5) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says…SEA by 1.4 (a 2.9 spread differential)

Seattle has been whooped in both of Wilson’s return games from his broken finger, but he’s also played two of the best teams in the NFL (ARI, GB). They get a better matchup with Washington this week, and the Seahawks are due.

MIN at SF (-3.0)

The Computer says… SF by 0.3 (a 2.7 spread differential)

The Vikings are too good to give 3 points to, especially for the 49ers who are suddenly accepted by the media because they beat the holy Rams and followed that up beating the Jags. Good wins, but this is still a mediocre team.

-- BLAZING FIVE above --

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TEN at NE (-7.0)

The Computer says… NE by 4.9 (a 2.1 spread differential)

The Patriots are due for a letdown…and this is a lot of points to give to a solid opponent, but the Pats have been smashing opponents. Tennessee is a better foe than they’ve faced lately. The problem is the Titans have a ton of injuries…and the Pats are near clean.

LV at DAL (-7.5)

The Computer says… DAL by 5.7 (a 1.8 spread differential)

The Raiders have been playing better football, under the new regime, than given credit – the defense especially (the offense not so much). We think it’s too many points to give to Vegas here.

TB (-3.0) at IND

The Computer says… TB by 4.8 (a 1.8 spread differential)

Fortunate win by Indy last week. They take the JT run game at a top NFL run defense…which will force them to change up the offense a bit. Also, you don’t want Brady playing in perfect weather/a dome. Two games this season and he’s completing 70%+ of his passes with over 400+ yards per game average along with 5 TD passes.

PHI (-3.5) at NYG *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says… NYG by 1.3 (a 4.8 spread differential)

I love betting teams that just changed O-Cs or head coaches. The Giants losing to Tampa isn’t a shock. The Eagles are on a roll, but they are not THAT good…they’re due for a dud and facing a very tough NYG that is in the must-win moment of their season, I think NYG takes it to Philly at NY.

CAR (-2.0) at MIA

The Computer says… CAR by 1.1 (a 0.9 spread differential)

Going to Miami is such a tough road game…I’ll just take the points with the road dog.

LAR (-1.0) at GB

The Computer says… LAR by 1.8 (a 0.8 spread differential)

I have to go against the team with the lethal O-Line injuries and the QB with a broken toe.

NYJ at HOU (-2.5)

The Computer says… HOU by 2.0 (a 0.5 spread differential)

Two bad teams…I’ll take the points.

CLE at BAL (-3.5)

The Computer says… BAL by 3.2 (a 0.3 spread differential)

I have little faith in the Ravens, so if you gimme +3.5 with a team possessing a great run game and solid (at times) defense…I’ll take that side for a pick.

*SURVIVOR PICK* I don’t like this pick at all, but I don’t have many options left. There are no great BAL options the rest of season, I’ll try and sneak it through while Baker is hurt.

PIT at CIN (-4.5)

The Computer says… CIN by 4.3 (a 0.2 spread differential)

It’s a lot of points to lay…even though I think the Bengals are the superior team. If T.J. Watt is out, then this is shaky. If Watt is back, I like this with the points.

LAC (-2.5) at DEN

The Computer says… LAC by 2.3 (a 0.2 spread differential)

The Chargers just don’t look good to me. This game being at Denver and is a war for the playoff picture – I’ll take the points in a hopeful close game.