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2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 13

Last week/Week 12’s results…

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 2-3 (40.0%)

Best Bet: 1-0 (100%)

Survivor Pool: WIN (BAL)

Overall ATS: 8-7 (53%)

No spread picks: 7-8 (47%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 1-3 (25.0%), 2-2 ATS (50.0%)

Season-to-date:

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 30-30 (50.0%)

Best Bet: 8-4 (66.7%)

Survivor Pool: kicked out Wk9 (LAR-GB-CAR-BUF-NE-PIT-ARI-CIN-DAL-TB-CLE-BAL)

Overall ATS: 93-86-1 (52.0%)

No spread picks: 111-68 (62.0%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 14-13 (51.9%), 17-11 ATS (60.7%)

This week’s picks (will update as injury news hits or a big spread change):

TB (-11.0) at ATL

The Computer says… TB by 19.1 (a 8.1 spread differential)

The Saints have played three high-end teams…and been crushed by all of them. TB beat them by 23. NE shut them out by 25. Dallas beat them by 40. The Falcons are arguably the worst team in the NFL. This is my lock of 2021.

DEN at KC (-10.0)

The Computer says… KC by 5.1 (a 4.9 spread differential)

Don’t bet against Andy Reid off a bye, but I will take +10.0 to keep it close enough. I would not be surprised if Denver upset them.

NYG at MIA (-4.0) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says… NYG by 0.2 (a 4.2 spread differential)

My G-Men! Mike Glennon is not as bad a drop-off from Dimes as you think. The NYG defense is too good to give them +4.0.

BAL (-4.5) at PIT

The Computer says… BAL by 7.0 (a 2.5 spread differential)

The Steelers are descending to a bottom 5-7 team, and if they don’t have Watt and Haden here…it will be another blowout on them like last week with CIN.

NE at BUF (-2.5)

The Computer says… BUF by 0.1 (a 2.4 spread differential)

I think these teams are pretty even with Tre’Davious White, but in good weather I take Josh Allen’s arm. In horrible weather I take the NE run game and defense and better kicker.

SF (-3.5) at SEA

The Computer says… SF by 1.6 (a 1.9 spread differential)

Just playing the opposite…SF has been so good lately, and SEA so bad – that’s when these types of games come up from nowhere and smack you in the face aided by BS ref calls, etc.

LAC at CIN (-3.0)

The Computer says… CIN by 1.3 (a 1.7 spread differential)

The Chargers are due to breakout of their funk. I’ll take +3.0 to see if this is the week in a must-win for LAC (and CIN). If the weather continues to show rain, then maybe CIN is my Sunday morning switch.

DAL (-4.5) at NO

The Computer says… DAL by 5.9 (a 1.4 spread differential)

Too many injuries on the O-Line for NO. And Marcus Davenport probably out again. If Armstead-Ramczyk-Davenport-Kamara are active, then I’ll go NO. If Armstead-Kamara are active, I might go NO.

ARI (-8.0) at CHI

The Computer says… ARI by 9.3 (a 1.3 spread differential)

Arizona is too good for the Bears. If the weather clears up, then even more spread for the Cardinals. I fully believe Kyler is playing in this game.

IND (-9.0) at HOU

The Computer says… IND by 7.9 (a 1.1 spread differential)

The Texans have a pretty good little defense, but no offense so it’s dangerous to take them…but the +9.0 is too tempting. Depending upon the injury reports I could side with Indy by Sunday.

*SURVIVOR PICK* I’ll take the easy choice (IND) of the teams I have available. I’ll save MIN for one of their two upcoming CHI games.

WSH at LV (-2.5)

The Computer says… LV by 3.2 (a 0.7 spread differential)

Washington is overdue to crap the bed from their 3-game win streak. Las Vegas has had 10 days off, Washington 6 days…and WSH going east-to-west.

MIN (-7.0) at DET

The Computer says…  MIN by 6.6 (a 0.4 spread differential)

This spread scares me. The Vikings are always involved in one score games in 2021 (10 of their 11 games this season), so I’ll take the points and pray.

JAX at LAR (-13.0)

The Computer says… LAR by 13.2 (a 0.2 spread differential)

I don’t know how JAX will keep this close…I wanna take them, but I foresee Jalen Ramsey reengaged this game leading the way.

PHI (-6.5) at NYJ

The Computer says… PHI by 6.6 (a 0.1 spread differential)

I have no trust or faith in the Jets on offense. Philly will get 2-3 turnovers, so they have to be the way to go here. It’s a lot of points for a shaky Philly team.