2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 14
Last week/Week 13’s results…
Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 2-3 (40.0%)
Best Bet: 1-0 (100%)
Survivor Pool: WIN (IND)
Overall ATS: 9-5 (64%)
No spread picks: 7-7 (45%)
Calling Underdog outright winner: 0-1 (0.0%), 0-1 ATS (0.0%)
Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 32-33 (49.2%)
Best Bet: 9-4 (69.2%)
Survivor Pool: kicked out Wk9 (LAR-GB-CAR-BUF-NE-PIT-ARI-CIN-DAL-TB-CLE-BAL-IND)
Overall ATS: 102-91-1 (52.9%)
No spread picks: 118-75 (60.6%)
Calling Underdog outright winner: 14-14 (50.0%), 17-12 ATS (58.6%)
This week’s picks (will update as injury news hits or a big spread change):
LAR at ARI (-2.5) *BEST BET (always the first one listed each week)*
The Computer says… ARI by 7.1 (a 4.6 spread differential)
I’ll happily take the best team in football against the most overrated (besides KC). Arizona spreads have been too low all year. They are (9-3) ATS and the media/fans are up the arse of the Rams 2021 always. A perfect storm for an Arizona win and cover.
SEA (-7.5) at HOU *UPGRADE INTO TOP FIVE*
The Computer says… SEA by 11.6 (a 4.1 spread differential)
Too many points to lay with a bad Seattle team, but I have no faith in HOU either so I’ll go with the momentum with Seattle (a must win game for them)
SF (-1.5) at CIN *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says… CIN by 2.3 (a 3.8 spread differential)
I was impressed with Cincy in last week’s big loss. They actually showed a lot of grit despite an avalanche of bad luck. Cincy has been stout, underappreciated all season. And SF is always overblown with the public under Shanahan. Cincy has the better QB, weapons, RB, and defense, and kicker…why not Cincy at home? I pray Burrow’s hand holds up!
CHI at GB (-12.5)
The Computer says… GB by 15.8 (a 3.3 spread differential)
Have to like the Packers in December, at home, on a SNF game vs. the lowly Bears.
PIT at MIN (-3.0)
The Computer says… MIN by 6.1 (a 3.1 spread differential)
Vikings get all their key missing defenders back from being out last week. The Steelers won’t have Joe Haden again. The Steelers are not good. The Vikings are Jekyll and Hyde…they’re due for the good one to appear (I can’t even remember which one was good…and I’m not going to look it up because I’m lazy) at home on TNF this week.
JAX at TEN (-8.5)
The Computer says… TEN by 11.3 (a 2.8 spread differential)
I can’t take the Jags with the way they’re playing. TEN off a bye and getting people back from injury. They should cover here.
NO (-5.5) at NYJ
The Computer says… NO by 3.5 (a 2.0 spread differential)
Zach Wilson looked so good last week, and Taysom is not 100% in the hand…I think at New York the Jets can keep it close, but not betting any real money on it.
DAL (-4.0) at WSH
The Computer says… DAL by 5.8 (a 1.8 spread differential)
If Dallas gets Randy Gregory back here and with DeMarcus Lawrence returning last week…people will be shocked by the Dallas front line soon. Washington will get the first taste this week.
DET at DEN (-8.5)
The Computer says… DEN by 6.8 (a 1.7 spread differential)
I wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit won this game outright, but they are coming off such an emotional win and Denver an ugly loss…I don’t like the momentum for a bet, so I’ll just take the points for a pick. Denver is not that much better than Detroit.
ATL at CAR (-2.5)
The Computer says… CAR by 1.0 (a 1.5 spread differential)
I have a feeling the Falcons win here, but both teams are so bad I’ll just make a pick with the points.
LV at KC (-9.5)
The Computer says… KC by 8.0 (a 1.5 spread differential)
The Chiefs have a penchant for not covering and there is so much momentum for KC and against LV, that I’ll swim against the stream because I don’t believe KC is that good.
NYG at LAC (-10.0)
The Computer says… LAC by 9.5 (a 0.5 spread differential)
I will take LAC and lay the points if Fromm is at QB, and the LAC WRs are playing. If Mike Glennon plays and the LAC WRs are out…then NYG can keep this close enough.
BAL at CLE (-2.5)
The Computer says… CLE by 2.7 (a 0.2 spread differential)
This is the moment for Cleveland to get back in the AFC North race and send BAL reeling…as they should be. Baltimore is a lucky 2021 team whose luck is running out.
BUF at TB (-3.5) *CHANGE to TB*
The Computer says… TB by 3.6 (a 0.1 spread differential)
I have a feeling TB is the wrong team for BUF to try and bounce back against…I could see TB putting Buffalo away for good here. Psychologically destroying them with losses to NE and TB, confirming they aren’t as good as they think they are. I’m just taking a good team/QB with points.
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