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2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 16

Last week/Week 15’s results…

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 2-3 (40.0%)

Best Bet: 0-1 (00%)

Survivor Pool: WIN (MIA)

Overall ATS: 8-8 (50%)

No spread picks: 11-5 (69%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 1-1 (50.0%), 1-1 ATS (50.0%)

Season-to-date:

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 37-38 (49.3%)

Best Bet: 9-6 (60.0%)

Survivor Pool: kicked out Wk9 (LAR-GB-CAR-BUF-NE-PIT-ARI-CIN-DAL-TB-CLE-BAL-IND-SEA-MIA)

Overall ATS: 117-106-1 (52.5%)

No spread picks: 140-83 (62.8%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 15-16 (48.4%), 18-14 ATS (56.3%)

This week’s picks (will update as injury news hits or a big spread change):

DET at ATL (-5.5) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN (if Goff)*

The Computer says… DET by 3.4 (a 8.9 spread differential) *With Goff

I love Detroit here if Jared Goff is back…definite underdog full upset if Goff is back. Just cover potential with Blough in.

LAC (-10.0) at HOU

The Computer says… LAC by 14.3 (a 4.3 spread differential)

I like LAC indoors with 10 days prep/rest against HOU minus Brandin Cooks.

*SURVIVOR PICK*

BUF at NE (-2.5) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says… BUF by 1.1 (a 3.6 spread differential)

Buffalo can ‘right the ship’ here and seize back the division. If Buffalo wins, they hold the tie breaker over NE…since the Pats lost to Miami opening day.

IND at ARI (-2.0)

The Computer says… ARI by 5.0 (a 3.0 spread differential)

Coming off an embarrassing loss, Arizona is a dangerous opponent this week…and Indy coming off a nice win is ripe for that fall.

CHI at SEA (-7.0)

The Computer says… SEA by 3.9 (a 2.6 spread differential)

This game is going to be cold, and potentially foggy with some precipitation possible. I’ll take the points with CHI not that Seattle is dead for anything to play for.

-- Blazing Five above --

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CLE at GB (-7.5)

The Computer says… GB by 9.9 (a 2.4 spread differential)

I’ll always take GB at home in Dec./Jan. Opponents always seem to slip and fall as GB plays like it’s the best turf to play on ever.

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MIA (-2.5) at NO *Odds have changed, COVID case rampant

The Computer says… MIA by 3.1 (a 0.6 spread differential)

I think the Saints play like the Bills, and the Bills are poison to the Dolphins…they don’t fare well against ultra-physical teams/defenses.

NYG at PHI (-10.0)

The Computer says… PHI by 11.4 (a 1.4 spread differential)

I’ll take the other side of a Jake Fromm start, even though new QBs tend surprise opponents.

JAX at NYJ (P)

The Computer says… NYJ by 1.4 (a 1.4 spread differential)

Two bad teams, I trust Zach Wilson more than Trevor Lawrence in an equally bad matchup game.

WSH at DAL (-11.0)

The Computer says… DAL by 10.0 (a 1.0 spread differential)

It’s a lot of points for a key divisional game/last gasp for the Football Team.

LAR (-3.0) at MIN

The Computer says… LAR by 2.4 (a 0.6 spread differential)

The crowd noise in Minnesota at home could be the difference for the cover or outright win for MIN.

PIT at KC (-10.0)

The Computer says… KC by 10.4 (a 0.4 spread differential) *With Tyreek

With Tyreek, I think KC cruises. Without him…I’ll take the Steelers to keep it close/cover. Tyreek is a huge difference maker like none other non-QB.

SF (-3.0) at TEN

The Computer says… SF by 3.3 (a 0.3 spread differential)

Injuries to key OLs for TEN is a bridge too far. SF is in too good an injury/COVID shape for TEN to overcome, I think. TEN might keep this close but all the little details favor SF this particular week.

DEN at LV (P)

The Computer says… DEN by 0.3 (a 0.3 spread differential)

I’ll take a flyer on the better team, and I like Drew Lock enough to go for the win here.

BAL at CIN (-4.5)

The Computer says… CIN by 3.7 (a 0.8 spread differential)

It’s too many points to give in such a huge AFC North slugfest for 1st-place.

TB (-10.0) at CAR *Switch to CAR due to TB injury report

The Computer says… TB by 9.8 (a 0.2 spread differential)

The Panthers are so embarrassing, I can’t find anyway to take part in them – I PRAY Sam Darnold is back starting this game.