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2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 17

Last week/Week 16’s results…

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 3-2 (60.0%)

Best Bet: 1-0 (00%)

Survivor Pool: LOSS (LAC)

Overall ATS: 8-8 (50%)

No spread picks: 12-4 (75%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 1-0 (100.0%), 1-0 ATS (100.0%)

Season-to-date:

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 40-40 (50.0%)

Best Bet: 10-6 (62.5%)

Survivor Pool: kicked out Wk9 (LAR-GB-CAR-BUF-NE-PIT-ARI-CIN-DAL-TB-CLE-BAL-IND-SEA-MIA-LAC-)

Overall ATS: 125-114-1 (52.3%)

No spread picks: 152-87 (63.6%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 16-16 (50.0%), 19-14 ATS (57.8%)

This week’s picks (will update as injury news hits or a big spread change):

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KC (-5.0) at CIN *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says… CIN by 0.2 (a 5.2 spread differential)

I secretly believe Cincy is the best team in the AFC right now. I just believe Cincy is the grittier, more battle-tested 2021 team…and that Joe Burrow is a better NFL QB than Mahomes. Logan Wilson is back for Cincy. The Chiefs are not as good as people think…their recent win streak has been filled with luck and easy opponents due to injury, or they just sucked. I think they get a comeuppance vs. Cincy here because the Chiefs are arrogant and will overlook Cincy here. KC has the ‘experience’ edge in these spots, and that’s legit/reasonable.

I’m trying to ‘will’ this Cincy win into existence. Won’t you join me?

DET at SEA (-9.0) *Goff out

The Computer says… SEA by 5.2 (a 3.8 spread differential)

I love Detroit here to cover, and possibly upset Seattle (if Goff back). We could get some rain in this game to make it extra sloppy/good for the underdog/cover. Even on a clear/clean/dome field…I think Detroit is better than Seattle right now.

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HOU at SF (-12.5)

The Computer says… SF by 8.8 (a 3.7 spread differential)

Houston under Davis Mills is suddenly respectable. The Texans either shock you with a win as a big underdog or lose by 30+ and shock you with how bad they are each week. So, I’ll take the points. SF doesn’t scare me, and who knows what affect Trey Lance has in his debut.

*SURVIVOR PICK*

LAR (-3.5) at BAL

The Computer says… LAR by 6.3 (a 2.8 spread differential)

Hard to bet on Baltimore when they are decimated in the secondary…and the weather looks like it will be very good for football for late December in Baltimore.

JAX at NE (-15.5)

The Computer says… NE by 18.8 (a 3.3 spread differential)

You figure Jacksonville will score 7-10 points here, max. Will NE score 25+? Probably. I have no case for taking the Jags.

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– BLAZING FIVE –

ARI at DAL (-5.5)

The Computer says… DAL by 8.2 (a 2.7 spread differential)

Arizona playing terrible and Dallas starting to pop. With Tyron Smith expected back, I’ll stay with the hot team vs. the collapsing, injured one.

MIA at TEN (-3.5)

The Computer says… TEN by 4.9 (a 1.4 spread differential)

The Miami win streak is built on beating a bunch of bad and/or COVID hit teams in a row, some of them lucky finishes to get over. Tennessee is perhaps the toughest team in the NFL. I think the Titans, in the cold, punch Miami in the mouth.

LV at IND (-6.5) *IF Wentz at QB

The Computer says… IND by 8.8 (a 2.3 spread differential)

The Raiders have been a really bad, lucky team the past 8 games…a (3-5) record in that span with close/lucky wins over Drew Lock and Nick Mullens having to start for their teams the past two weeks. Indy is one of the best teams in the NFL…and the Raiders are a fraud. I’ll take the Colts for sure if Wentz playing.

If Wentz is out, I would lean taking LV to win outright…this is a huge game for the Raiders to get into the playoffs.

ATL at BUF (-14.5)

The Computer says… BUF by 16.1 (a 1.6 spread differential)

I’m sticking with The Computer’s theory/trend that Atlanta is secretly terrible and gets destroyed by top teams when they face them.

ATL lost to NE by 25. Lost to TB by 23 and 13. Lost to Dallas by 40. Lost to SF by 18. The southern team coming up into super cold weather, I’ll take the weather adjusted/tougher team.

NYG at CHI (-6.0)

The Computer says… CHI by 4.5 (a 1.5 spread differential)

Bad weather…two bad teams…a lot of points to lay…I’ll take the points…because, ‘what the hell, why not?’. I don’t feel any specific way about this game.

CAR at NO (-7.5)

The Computer says… NO by 8.8 (a 1.3 spread differential)

Taysom Hill back is my jam. A must-win for the Saints and they should be getting several COVID players back for this game. This could be a blazing five option if the Saints get back all their key COVID players.

PHI (3.5) at WSH

The Computer says… PHI by 2.7 (a 0.8 spread differential)

I thought Washington was playoff-dead, but they actually have a long shot hope of the playoffs, which means Rivera will play this like it’s the Super Bowl. Washington can keep this close…maybe.

CLE (-3.0) at PIT

The Computer says… CLE by 2.4 (a 0.6 spread differential)

This will be a war for playoff survival, so I’ll take the +3 with the home team…as inferior as they might be, they seem to find ways in these types of games.

DEN at LAC (-6.5) *CHANGE to LAC due to the COVID list for Denver*

The Computer says… LAC by 7.1 (a 0.6 spread differential)

I can’t trust the Chargers. I don’t know that I can trust Denver, but I know I can’t trust the Chargers…so I’ll just take +6.5 for my troubles.

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TB (-13.5) at NYJ

The Computer says… TB by 13.9 (a 0.4 spread differential)

I wanna take those points with the Jets considering the TB COVID list on their secondary, but those guys may all be back in time and then I have no idea how the Jets stay within two scores of the Bucs.

MIN at GB (-6.5)

The Computer says… GB by 6.7 (a 0.2 spread differential)

The frozen tundra game…5 degrees, ‘feels like’ -10. You’d think you should take the points, and that’s not crazy…but I swear, Green Bay plays in these type games at home and acts like the weather is an advantage while the opponent slips all over the field. We just saw it last week with Cleveland slipping around, throwing 4 picks…some of it on the routes. I have to go GB.