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2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 18

Date:
January 6, 2022 10:10 AM
January 6, 2022 10:10 AM

2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 18

 

 

Last week/Week 17’s results…

 

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 2-3 (40.0%)

Best Bet: 1-0 (00%)

Survivor Pool: WIN (SF)

Overall ATS: 9-7 (56%)

No spread picks: 12-4 (75%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 1-0 (100.0%), 1-0 ATS (100.0%)

 

 

Season-to-date:

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 42-43 (49.4%)

Best Bet: 11-6 (64.7%)

Survivor Pool: kicked out Wk9 (LAR-GB-CAR-BUF-NE-PIT-ARI-CIN-DAL-TB-CLE-BAL-IND-SEA-MIA-LAC-SF)

Overall ATS: 134-121-1 (52.5%)

No spread picks: 164-91 (64.3%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 17-16 (51.5%), 20-14 ATS (58.8%)

 

 

This week’s picks (will update as injury news hits or a big spread change):

 

NO (-4.5) at ATL

The Computer says… NO by 9.9 (a 5.4 spread differential)

LOVE this bet this week. The Saints are one of the better teams in the league, when at full health…and they are getting closer and closer to having all their key guys back. They have enough healthy guys to take down ATL and you love this bet even more if Kyle Pitts is out.

 

KC (-10.0) at DEN

The Computer says… KC by 14.3 (a 4.3 spread differential)

Must win for KC to have any shot at a #1 seed. They play to win, and Denver rolls over on Fangio one more time.

 

LAC (-3.0) at LV *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*

The Computer says… LV by 0.9 (a 3.9 spread differential)

I just think Las Vegas is a better coached, grittier team than SAWFT L.A. I’ll take the full upset.

 

PIT at BAL (-5.5)

The Computer says… BAL by 2.1 (a 3.4 spread differential)

This is a lot of points for these two teams that usually play tight games.

 

CHI at MIN (-3.5)

The Computer says… MIN by 6.6 (a 3.1 spread differential)

The Mike Zimmer career finale. He goes out trying to win…like it matters to anyone, but it does to him. He’ll push all his starters and not worry about things for next season, because there is none for him in Minnesota.

 

-- BLAZING FIVE ABOVE –

 

WSH (-7.0) at NYG

The Computer says… WSH by 9.8 (a 2.8 spread differential)

I can’t side with the team starting Jake Fromm. 

 

GB (-4.0) at DET

The Computer says… GB by 1.2 (a 2.8 spread differential)

Green Bay has nothing to play for. Rodgers & friends may start the game, but they will likely play for a quarter maybe and then the backups.

 

SF at LAR (-4.5)

The Computer says… LAR by 2.1 (a 2.4 spread differential)

The Shanahan 49ers always give the McVay Rams troubles. An upset is potentially in order here.

 

CIN at CLE (-6.0)

The Computer says… CLE by 4.0 (a 2.0 spread differential)

No Baker, no Burrow…just take the points. Brandon Allen is good enough.

 

NE (-6.5) at MIA

The Computer says… NE by 4.4 (a 2.1 spread differential)

Miami always plays NE tough late season…and going to Miami in the winter seems to be tough for NE/Midwest teams as well.

 

NYJ at BUF (-16.0)

The Computer says… BUF by 14.3 (a 1.7 spread differential)

Must win for the AFC East title for Buffalo, they should crush…the weather being sloppy is a risk to the cover.

 

SEA at ARI (-6.5)

The Computer says… ARI by 4.9 (a 1.6 spread differential)

Seattle, in what might be Pete’s and possibly Russ’s final game in Seattle…they’ll give a fading Arizona team fits.

 

IND (-15.5) at JAX

The Computer says… IND by 16.6 (a 1.1 spread differential)

The Jags loss amounts to .500+ record teams since Week 11: 20 (SF), 30 (LAR), 20 (TEN), 40 (NE). Indy needs this win, so it should be a full-on/no let-up beating.

 

TEN (-10.0) at HOU

The Computer says… TEN by 10.6 (a 0.6 spread differential)

Tennessee in a must-win game will prove that they are worthy of the #1 seed by putting Houston to sleep.

*SURVIVOR PICK*

 

CAR at TB (-8.0)

The Computer says… TB by 8.3 (a 0.3 spread differential)

It looks like Brady & Friends will play some/the bulk of this game…and that should be good enough to get them over, but there is risk that they will play a quarter or so and make this a more even battle of Darnold v. Gabbert.

 

DAL (-7.0) at PHI

The Computer says… DAL by 7.2 (a 0.2 spread differential)

There’s COVID pressure on this game, and Philly taking the worst of it…so let’s just side with Dallas for now.

 


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>