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2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 3 (9/24 UPDATE)

Date:
September 23, 2021 10:14 AM
September 24, 2021 7:13 PM

2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 3

 

 

Last week/Week 2’s results…

 

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 4-1 (80.0%)

Best Bet: 1-0 (100%)

Survivor Pool: Win (GB)

Overall ATS: 8-8 (50.0%)

No spread picks: 10-6 (62.5%)

 

Season-to-date:

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 7-3 (70.0%)

Best Bet: 2-0 (100%)

Survivor Pool: Still Alive (LAR-GB)

Overall ATS: 16-16 (50.0%)

No spread picks: 20-12 (62.5%)

 

 

This week’s picks (will update as injury news hits or a big spread change):

 

 

SEA (-1.5) at MIN

The Computer says…MIN by 4.7 (a 6.2 spread differential)

Best bet of the week. The public will see Minnesota as a sad, boring (0-2)…when in reality they should be (2-0), beating two playoff teams…on the road. And Seattle is nothing special for slipping past Indy then collapsing at home v. TEN. The Computer’s first two weeks of ‘Best Bet’ has been a dog it claims will win outright, and has been right both times…here’s your 3rd.

 

CHI at CLE (-7.0)

The Computer says…CLE by 2.5 (a 4.5 spread differential)

Cleveland should’ve lost to HOU last week, had Tyrod not gotten hurt. I think the Browns got all this Super Bowl buzz and the public is still stuck on it. I’ll take a fat 7 points to hope a 1st-start Justin Fields confuses the Brown enough to cover, or win.

  

GB at SF (-3.5)

The Computer says…GB by 0.0 (a 3.5 spread differential)

I think Green Bay is a very flawed team, but you’re giving me more than an FG with Aaron Rodgers? I’ll take it. You can take the fraud (2-0) team that has one of the worst starting QBs in football now and is one hit on a running back away from having no RB available who was on the team two weeks ago. And SF is missing a top LB and lost their top CB Week 1 for the season. GB is weak, but the 49ers are not stable either. Take the points.

ARI (-7.0) at JAX

The Computer says…ARI by 10.3 (a 3.3 spread differential)

I’m totally down with ARI smashing JAX, but it’s a lot of points to lay for a home dog in what could be a hot/humid game with west-to-east travel. I’m a little leery of laying a huge line but I don’t see how Arizona loses this game…or that it stays close. Jacksonville has been bombed by worse teams in their first two games. This scares me a bit, but also I don’t see how Arizona doesn’t win this by 3+ scores.

NYJ at DEN (10.5)

The Computer says…DEN by 7.6 (a 2.9 spread differential)

The Jets are going to be a tough out for teams this season – look at last week. Four picks by Zach Wilson and the Patriots were scuffling to score, and scuffling to really seize this game. The Jets defense is playing good football and Zach Wilson is way better than what the media has decided to try to exterminate him over (last week’s game). The Jets are dangerous with a really good, playmaking QB and a solid defense…but their atrocious O-Line is a problem.

Denver should win, but +10.5 is pretty heavy.

 

PHI at DAL (-4.0)

The Computer says…DAL by 1.2 (a 2.8 spread differential)

These are both good/solid teams, so I’ll take the one getting +4.0.

  

LAC at KC (-6.5)

The Computer says…KC by 4.0 (a 2.5 spread differential)

How is Kansas City so much better than the Chargers? Both have good+ O-Lines. Both have good defenses, but LAC’s D is better because they have a better defensive head coach…and better head coach in general. You would rather have the LAC defense 1-thru-11. You would rather have the LAC O-Line (at full strength). You can argue about the better RB-WR-TE weapons, but give KC the edge for possessing Tyreek Hill, but then they fall back when you look at the garbage heap they have at WR after that. KC has the better kicker, and the better QB…but is Mahomes so far ahead of Justin Herbert?

That’s your hope – that Mahomes is so much better than Herbert that it covers all the other KC-v-LAC deficiencies. Consider last year, with a worse everything for LAC…Herbert outplayed Mahomes twice – had KC beat in his emergency debut and then throttled KC Week 16.

This could be the moment the Chargers take possession of the claim to ‘best team in the AFC West’. Now, considering all that – you’re giving me +6.5 with LAC at KC in neutral weather? I’ll take the points, with hopes I won’t even need them. If Brian Bulaga were playing here, this would be LAC as a favorite for us…partially because KC is overrated.

BAL (-8.0) at DET

The Computer says…BAL by 5.5 (a 2.5 spread differential)

Detroit is scrappy…hopefully scrappy enough to keep it close/back door cover.

CIN at PIT (3.0)

The Computer says…PIT by 0.9 (a 2.1 spread differential)

We will change this around all week depending upon the Pitt defensive injuries – Haden, Watt, Bush. If Watt and Bush are out, this could be a Bengals upset win.

TB (-1.0) at LAR

The Computer says…TB by 2.7 (a 1.7 spread differential)

We just feel the Rams are overrated right now, and then you take Brady to out-coach/outsmart Sean McVay…again.

 

NO at NE (-3.0)

The Computer says…NE by 1.6 (a 1.4 spread differential)

If Marshon Lattimore and Eric McCoy play/are fine…then this is a Saints win coming, led by the defense.

 

ATL at NYG (-3.0)

The Computer says…NYG by 2.3 (a 0.7 spread differential)

Two wobbly teams, just take the points.

 

CAR (-8.0) at HOU

The Computer says…CAR by 8.4 (a 0.4 spread differential)

Carolina should mop the floor with a Davis Mills-led Texans team, but strange things can happen on TNF…and Houston will try and run clock while Carolina still has Sam Darnold, so it remains to be seen that the Panthers can score a bunch of points to feel great about covering any big line on the road – but I think the CAR defense will score at least one TD and be the difference in covering here.

*SURVIVOR PICK* Has to be Carolina over Davis Mills. This week marks the end of the Panthers easy schedule, so we won’t be looking at using anytime soon and facing Mills is a Survivor pick gift. I’ll use the layup now.

 

WSH at BUF (-7.5)

The Computer says…BUF by 7.8 (a 0.3 spread differential)

It’s a lot of points but what Buffalo just did to Miami is a forerunner of this game – the Bills defense is so good that they will cave in Taylor Heinicke. The Bills arguably have the best NFL defense in 2021.

 

IND at TEN (-5.5) *UPDATE ON Wentz news*

The Computer says…TEN by 5.8 (a 0.3 spread differential)

If Carson Wentz is out or really limited, then maybe TEN is the pick…but if Wentz is OK, a desperate-to-save-the-season Indy getting +5.5 is something I’ll pick, not bet.

MIA at LV (-4.0)

The Computer says…LV by 3.9 (a 0.1 spread differential)

You have to love Vegas here at home, but the Jacoby Brissett factor makes me pause. The Raiders have been more lucky than good, so not a bad time to just take +4.0 with their decent enough opponent. 



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>