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2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 4

Date:
September 30, 2021 10:53 AM
September 30, 2021 10:52 AM

2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 4

 

 

Last week/Week 3’s results…

 

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 2-3 (60.0%)

Best Bet: 1-0 (100%)

Survivor Pool: Win (CAR)

Overall ATS: 11-5 (68.8%)

No spread picks: 11-5 (68.8%)

 


Season-to-date:

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 9-6 (60.0%)

Best Bet: 3-0 (100%)...all three underdogs to win outright, and 3-for-3 on that.

Survivor Pool: STILL ALIVE (LAR-GB-CAR)

Overall ATS: 27-21 (56.3%)

No spread picks: 31-17 (64.6%)

 

 

This week’s picks (will update as injury news hits or a big spread change): 

 

JAX at CIN (-7.5)

The Computer says…JAX by 2.1 (a 9.6 spread differential)

I have liked this from the start of the week, a Jacksonville outright upset – and it’s only getting better as we go…Tee Higgins out, Jessie Bates out. If Chidobe Awuzie goes out this is pure money. The Jags have a great O-Line…the Bengals have a trash O-Line and the differential between these two teams (with Burrow not playing like Burrow all year) should not be a TD+. It’s the public assumption the Jags are terrible…but they’ve hung with DEN and ARI the last two weeks, but the public doesn’t recognize those teams as that good so it doesn’t matter. I LOVE THIS BET. Yes, Trevor Lawrence will have 1-2 turnovers, but I bet the Jags get as many from Cincy here.

 

DET at CHI (-3.0)

The Computer says…DET by 4.3 (a 7.3 spread differential)

The Lions are the better team, they keep getting bad breaks every week – they get a team they are better than, plus they play more energized then. The Bears are dying off into one of the worst teams in the league. We like the Lions to get their first win here…or at least cover.

 

NYG at NO (-7.5)

The Computer says…NO by 1.4 (a 6.1 spread differential)

If you can get +7.5 points facing Jameis you do it – one of his classic pick-sixes and your at +14.5 the rest of the contest. I would avoid this normally, because I really like this Saints team…BUT…their two best OLs will be out, so take the points.

 

SEA at SF (-3.0)

The Computer says…SEA by 2.2 (a 5.2 spread differential)

I get the better QB (by a mile) and +3.0…yes, please.

 

CLE (-2.0) at MIN

The Computer says…MIN by 3.1 (a 5.1 spread differential)

When will the world learn? The Vikings are one of the 10 best teams in football…AND they possess the only true home field advantage pre-bad weather. With the Browns, you’re giving +2.0 because a lot of ‘smarts’ thought the Browns were clever Super Bowl picks and they won’t let off it (and now emboldened by the CHI beatdown). Umm…the Vikings to win the Super Bowl is a more clever pick.

 

*Detect any pattern in the Blazing Five above? All dogs. Just the way I like it.

 

LV at LAC (-3.5)

The Computer says…LAC by 8.5 (a 5.1 spread differential)

If I were betting a favorite, it would be LAC. I don’t believe the public realizes how good this LAC team is, and they get suckered by the Raiders being (3-0), when they could be (1-2) easily.

  

HOU at BUF (-16.5)

The Computer says…BUF by 11.7 (a 4.8 spread differential)

Buffalo will probably cover, I know it…but my formulas for handicapping games boosts underdogs (for obvious/good/statistical reasons), so The Computer won’t take the -16.5 bait. Houston isn’t that terrible. If they had Tyrod Taylor, they might be (2-1)/(3-0) today and be AFC South favorites…let that sink in. Davis Mills v. BUF defense scares me to death, but it’s too many points.

*SURVIVOR PICK* I have to take the layup here.

 

WSH (-1.0) at ATL

The Computer says…WSH by 4.9 (a 3.9 spread differential)

Washington is due for a turn…and Atlanta stinks.

PIT at GB (-6.5)

The Computer says…GB by 2.8 (a 3.7 spread differential)

The Computer has a lot of indicators that the Steelers will win this game if T.J. Watt is practicing fully going into the game, and if Diontae plays.

TEN (-7.0) at NYJ

 The Computer says…TEN by 3.7 (a 3.3 spread differential)

We keep taking the Jets plus points because we respect their defense and think Zach Wilson will overcome the offensive surroundings and keep a game close/win – but he’s not even been close the last two weeks. The Titans minus their #1-2 WRs here…maybe it’s the moment, at NY.

 

CAR at DAL (-4.5)

The Computer says…DAL by 6.3 (a 1.8 spread differential)

I personally love this game for Dallas, but The Computer is a bit more wary of a bigger spread but likes the Boys too.

 

IND at MIA (-2.0)

The Computer says…MIA by 0.6 (a 1.4 spread differential)

Two bad teams, take the points.

 

TB (-6.5) at NE

The Computer says…TB by 7.6 (a 1.1 spread differential)

The Computer sees most of the pressure here being the Bucs try to humiliate the Patriots for obvious reasons, but the Pats have to be as amped for this game as Tampa.

 

ARI at LAR (-4.5)

The Computer says…LAR by 3.5 (a 1.0 spread differential)

Two really good teams…take the points.

 

KC (-7.0) at PHI

The Computer says…KC by 7.5 (a 0.5 spread differential)

The Chiefs are losers of three of their last 4 games, and their one win (CLE Week 1) was a bad performance where they came back late to pull it out. They have been playing bad football way more than usual. Why not take the points with Jalen Hurts going to run on purpose for 100-150+ yards? But the Eagles O-Line is so corrupted, I can’t take this game or Philly seriously.

 

BAL at DEN (-1.0)

The Computer says…DEN by 0.5 (a 0.5 spread differential)

Two decent teams…just take the points, but I hope Denver wins…so, I’ll look like a genius for predicting the Broncos to the playoffs in the summer – but, honestly, I think Denver has peaked and aren’t as good as I thought…and I’m worried a crash is coming. My internal numbers on them are not glowing…it’s blinking RED…WARNING…


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>