2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 5
Last week/Week 4’s results…
Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 3-2 (60.0%)
Best Bet: 1-0 (100%)
Survivor Pool: Win (BUF)
Overall ATS: 11-5 (68.8%)
No spread picks: 8-8 (50.0%)
Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 12-8 (60.0%)
Best Bet: 4-0 (100%)
Survivor Pool: Alive (LAR-GB-CAR-BUF)
Overall ATS: 38-26 (59.4%)
No spread picks: 39-25 (60.9%)
This week’s picks (will update as injury news hits or a big spread change):
*NOTE: All season, so far, I have felt really good about the look of the top picks the Computer is pointing out and have had supreme confidence in the Survivor pick. This week…none of that. I hate the looks of all these games/lines. Nothing really jumping out…a lot of reaching. I’m not betting any of these games for real at this point. And I’m slightly nervous about my Survivor pick options, and ultimate pick.
NYJ at ATL (-3.0)
The Computer says…NYJ by 2.0 (a 5.0 spread differential)
I’m a fan of this scrappy Jets team. Two bad teams playing in Europe this week…the Jets have the more talented playmaker QB and 10x the defense and heart. I’ll take the points with a team I think wins it.
NYG at DAL (-7.0)
The Computer says…DAL by 2.6 (a 4.4 spread differential)
The Computer is flashing signals of a possible outright upset, so we’ll take the points with NYG. The G-Men should be (2-2), possibly (3-1) going into this game. But Dallas is so good right now it’s hard to beat strong against them.
CHI at LV (-5.5)
The Computer says…LV by 9.8 (a 4.3 spread differential)
The Computer went bonkers for Las Vegas here, somewhat to my surprise. But at what spot on the field or coaching staff is Las Vegas inferior compared to the Bears?
CLE at LAC (-1.5)
The Computer says…LAC by 5.8 (a 4.3 spread differential)
Justin Herbert is the kinda QB that can neutralize a strong pass rush, like CLE has. If he does, then the LAC D could make CLE work from behind and not be able to all-run…and CLE’s passing game and pass protection is a bottom tier thing. I wouldn’t bet it because if CLE gets control, they could run and play keep away just as easily – The Computer is with LAC in the matchup.
PHI at CAR (-3.5)
The Computer says…PHI by 0.3 (a 3.8 spread differential)
The Eagles are due…if Lane Johnson is back, I’ll take them to win. Carolina losing Shaq Thompson hurts…and Sam Darnold is still a weak QB behind an iffy O-Line. I’ll take those points.
BUF at KC (-2.5)
The Computer says…BUF by 1.1 (a 3.6 spread differential)
The Chiefs are lucky not to be (1-3) entering this game. The Eagles were handing them the game last week and they really could never put the Eagles away. Buffalo is firing on all cylinders right now, so we’ll take the points…although Matt Milano out really hurts BUF.
NE (-9.0) at HOU
The Computer says…NE by 5.9 (a 3.1 spread differential)
Should the Patriots really be giving -9.0 on the road?
*SURVIVOR PICK* I debated taking MIN or TB or NE…and settled, uncomfortably, on the Pats due to Davis Mills. And that I could use MIN or TB soon, but this would be my one shot at using NE for a while, if all season.
TEN (4.0) at JAX *UPDATE* Switching to TEN...the JAX news is just so crazy and Urban has so lost the owner, the media, his family, the locker room...let's just run from this.
The Computer says…TEN by 4.8 (a 0.8 spread differential)
I don’t love this game…I’ll just take the home team getting points and not buying into Urban as a distraction…it actually might be a positive for JAX to get Urban off their ass for a week.
DEN at PIT (-1.0)
The Computer says…PIT by 3.0 (a 2.0 spread differential)
I hate the way the Broncos look…and the Steelers are due to stop the bleeding, at home.
MIA at TB (-10.0)
The Computer says…TB by 8.2 (a 1.9 spread differential)
Every time I think Tampa Bay is going to thrash a team, they struggle to cover. This should be a big win for the pats…but I thought about their game with NE. I’ll just take the points and pray.
LAR (-2.5) at SEA
The Computer says…LAR by 4.3 (a 1.8 spread differential)
Seattle isn’t very good…bad defense and weak O-Line. The Rams are good…their crime is losing to a really good Arizona team. The Rams are set for a bounce back.
SF at ARI (-5.5)
The Computer says…ARI by 4.0 (a 1.5 spread differential)
If Trent Williams is out it’s a serious blow for SF. The Computer thinks the randomness of the first look at Trey Lance could keep Arizona off-balance for a chance to keep it close or win. But Lance could face plant here and Arizona run away with it. Not to bet, just a pick with the points.
IND at BAL (-7.0)
The Computer says…BAL by 6.3 (a 0.7 spread differential)
Too many O-Line injuries for the Colts, but 7.0 points seems like way too much for a good-not-great and often lucky Ravens team.
GB (-3.0) at CIN
The Computer says…GB by 3.4 (a 0.4 spread differential)
If Chidobe Awuzie is out this really puts it over the top to take the road fave GB. Joe Mixon out hurts as well.
NO (-2.0) at WSH
The Computer says…NO by 2.2 (a 0.2 spread differential)
I’ll take the reversal of fortune…Saints lost a win they had in their hands last week, while Washington totally lucked out from taking a loss to ATL. NO gets their win back, and WSH gets their loss back.
DET at MIN (-9.5)
The Computer says…MIN by 9.6 (a 0.1 spread differential)
The Lions have sudden O-Line issues…their one asset is suddenly disappearing. Minnesota is a top 10 NFL team being hidden by a (1-3) record. With the injury reports the confidence could grow on this one with MIN.
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