2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 6
Last week/Week 5’s results…
Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 2-3 (40.0%)
Best Bet: 0-1 (00%)
Survivor Pool: Win (NE)
Overall ATS: 9-6-1 (60.0%)
No spread picks: 13-3 (81.1%)
Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 14-11 (656.0%)
Best Bet: 4-1 (80%)
Survivor Pool: Alive (LAR-GB-CAR-BUF-NE)
Overall ATS: 47-32-1 (59.5%)
No spread picks: 52-28 (65.0%)
This week’s picks (will update as injury news hits or a big spread change):
MIA (-3.5) at JAX (UNDERDOG WINS OUTRIGHT)
The Computer says…JAX by 4.4 (a 7.9 spread differential)
I’m assuming…hoping Tua is back for this bet. The Jags are better on offense than Miami, and not far behind on bad defenses…and Tua isn’t taking advantage of anything. I LOVE the outright upset here if Tua is in, but also (lesser) if Brissett is at QB.
LAC at BAL (-3.0)
The Computer says…LAC by 4.6 (a 7.6 spread differential)
I don’t see how LAC is an underdog to BAL…besides the media thinking the Ravens are special for the comeback win on MNF. The Chargers are being undervalued like the Bills were last year…so keep riding the LAC train until the media/fans/Vegas catches up.
HOU at IND (-10.0)
The Computer says…IND by 2.6 (a 7.4 spread differential)
It’s too many points for a scrappy Houston team. Houston had CLE on the ropes and shoulda beat NE last week. Indy is all banged up and SAWFT. The winner of this game, if TEN loses to Buffalo this week…is right back in the AFC South race.
LV at DEN (-3.5) (UNDERDOG WINS OUTRIGHT)
The Computer says…LV by 1.7 (a 5.2 spread differential)
LV would have been predictable with Gruden here, but now the Raiders have no ‘book’ on them…and Denver is so poorly run, I can see the circumstantial upset coming.
KC (-6.5) at WSH
The Computer says…KC by 11.2 (a 4.7 spread differential)
KC is finally playing a weak opponent and will now smash them to try and get back on track. This could be quite ugly.
(Blazing Five above)
ARI at CLE (-3.0)
The Computer says…CLE by 7.4 (a 4.3 spread differential)
Arizona missing their starting Center, plus Kyler not 100% perhaps. Arizona is due for a letdown…and they’re playing a top NFL team. I think the Browns are going to win by 10+, personally.
CIN (-3.5) at DET
The Computer says…CIN by 0.2 (a 3.3 spread differential)
Detroit is really due for a win…at home, I’ll take the points with DET and see if they can keep this close, as they usually do this year.
LAR (-9.5) at NYG
The Computer says…LAR by 6.4 (a 3.1 spread differential)
This will swap to LAR covering of Mike Glennon is starting.
TB (-7.0) at PHI
The Computer says…TB by 4.0 (a 3.0 spread differential)
The Bucs have a ton of injuries. Their defense is fading, while the Eagles defense is pretty solid. If Lane Johnson could return this might be an upset special. Jalen Hurts’ feet will take away the Bucs pass rush and Javon Hargrave could make Brady’s life miserable with his kryptonite: pressure up the middle.
DAL (-3.5) at NE
The Computer says…DAL by 5.5 (a 2.0 spread differential)
These are the type of games Dallas has to go in and smash the weak to establish their potential leadership of the NFC role.
SEA at PIT (-5.0)
The Computer says…PIT by 6.7 (a 1.7 spread differential)
I see logic behind taking the points, but I can’t with Geno.
*SURVIVOR PICK* I’m going to take a risk here. I can’t use LAR (already used). I was going to go with KC. But you only get shots like this so often – Seattle west-to-east without Russ and with no defense. The Steelers HAVE to win this game. I’ll try and preserve using KC for later. I won’t use IND because I think they could lose outright to HOU.
GB (-4.5) at CHI
The Computer says…GB by 4.8 (a 0.3 spread differential)
The Bears can keep this close with the run game. Our confidence in this will shift with the GB OL injury report. Justin Fields is so bad though, we have to lean Rodgers over Fields.
MIN (-1.0) at CAR
The Computer says…MIN by 1.1 (a 0.1 spread differential)
Staying away from this…is CMC or Cook right? Both emerging defenses. Darnold scares us too much.
BUF (-5.5) at TEN
The Computer says…BUF by 5.4 (a 0.1 spread differential)
I see the logic of taking the points with the Titans…the Bills coming off an emotional win, but they have a score to settle with TEN from last year.
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