2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 8
Last week/Week 7’s results…
Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 3-2 (60.0%)
Best Bet: 0-1 (100%)
Survivor Pool: Win (ARI…whew, almost got caught trying to be cute)
Overall ATS: 7-6 (53.9%)
No spread picks: 9-4 (69.2%)
Calling Underdog outright winner: 1-1 (50.0%), 1-1 ATS (50.0%)
Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 20-15 (5657.1%)
Best Bet: 5-2 (71.4%)
Survivor Pool: Alive (LAR-GB-CAR-BUF-NE-PIT-ARI)
Overall ATS: 61-45-1 (57.6%)
No spread picks: 71-36 (66.4%)
Calling Underdog outright winner: 9-7 (56.3%), 11-5 ATS (68.8%)
This week’s picks (will update as injury news hits or a big spread change):
CAR at ATL (-3.0) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says…CAR by 7.6 (a 10.6 spread differential)
I was shocked to see this. The Computer thinks an on-the-road underdog blowout is happening here…and The Computer has been pretty good on outright win calls on underdogs, especially getting covers with them this season.
PHI (-3.5) at DET *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says…DET by 3.5 (a 7.1 spread differential)
Detroit is due and the Eagles are starting to go into a tailspin.
TB (-5.5) at NO
The Computer says…TB by 10.4 (a 5.9 spread differential)
We know the Bucs offense is really good, but their defense is coming on…and then put them against Jameis – you have to take TB.
GB at ARI (-6.5)
The Computer says…ARI by 11.7 (a 5.2 spread differential)
No Davante, no Lazard, and one of the worst O-Lines in football…The Computer thinks Arizona is going to ‘smash’ here.
JAX at SEA (-3.0) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says…JAX by 2.1 (a 5.1 spread differential)
People do not realize how good the Jacksonville O-Line is, and when you have a good+ O-Line…you’re a dangerous team. Geno v. Trevor? Don’t you take Trevor?
LAR (-14.5) at HOU
The Computer says…LAR by 9.8 (a 4.7 spread differential)
If Tyrod starts, we think Houston can keep this close enough.
NE at LAC (-5.5)
The Computer says…LAC by 8.7 (a 3.2 spread differential)
Was shocked that The Computer liked LAC so heavy here, but it does. It sees the LAC offense just too good for the NE defense and Mac Jones cannot play catch-up well.
WSH at DEN (-3.5)
The Computer says…DEN by 0.5 (a 3.0 spread differential)
Lean Denver at home, but Washington can keep this close with their excellent run defense…halting what Denver wants to do most (run/possession game).
SF (-4.0) at CHI
The Computer says…SF by 1.2 (a 2.8 spread differential)
The Bears at home without Matt Nagy might play a lot better and at least cover against a weak 49ers team. If Trey Lance starts, then this changes.
TEN at IND (-1.0) *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says…TEN by 1.5 (a 2.5 spread differential)
Tennessee is just too good for Indy. I don’t care that the Colts beat the 49ers in a partial monsoon last week.
PIT at CLE (-3.5)
The Computer says…CLE by 5.7 (a 2.2 spread differential)
We will definitely take CLE if Chubb-Ward are healthy for this game…this could jump to a top 3-5 play if the injury report breaks the right way.
MIA at BUF (-13.5)
The Computer says…BUF by 14.8 (a 1.3 spread differential)
Buffalo has Miami’s number the last two times they’ve faced Tua…they’ve wrecked him, physically and emotionally.
NYG at KC (-10.0)
The Computer says…KC by 8.7 (a 1.3 spread differential)
Our numbers, and possible pick changes depending upon the final NYG injury report – whether Barkley or Toney plays means a lot, especially Barkley to help the passing game.
DAL (-2.0) at MIN
The Computer says…DAL by 1.0 (a 1.0 spread differential)
I thought MIN was going to be the best bet of the week, at first glance on Monday but The Computer sees issues with Patrick Peterson being out for Minnesota…and how good the Dallas O-Line is rating – the best in all of football, according to our metrics. However, the Vikings have such a strong home field advantage…and this being on a Sunday Night game.
CIN (-10.5) at NYJ
The Computer says…CIN by 10.5 (a 0.0 spread differential)
You can’t take the Jets seriously with Mike White starting.
*SURVIVOR POOL PICK* The best opportunity to use Cincinnati for the rest of the season, looking down their schedule – so, let’s use it!
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