2021 NFL Handicapping/Picks/Survivor Pool: Week 9
Disaster week, worst of the year. I was cruising along OK but blew a tire out Week 9. In a given season, you’ll have some wild winning week where you pick 75%+ of the game right out of nowhere…and then you’ll have the offset week where you can hardly get 25% of them right – this was one of the 25% weeks.
I was so bad it took me down in Survivor earlier than I’ve been out since like 2018. Thanks Mike White. I still play on like I bought a mulligan.
Last week/Week 8’s results…
Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 1-4 (20.0%)
Best Bet: 1-0 (100%)
Survivor Pool: LOST (CIN)
Overall ATS: 4-11 (26.7%)
No spread picks: 8-7 (53.3%)
Calling Underdog outright winner: 2-2 (50.0%), 2-2 ATS (50.0%)
Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 21-19 (52.5%)
Best Bet: 6-2 (75.0%)
Survivor Pool: kicked out Wk9 (LAR-GB-CAR-BUF-NE-PIT-ARI-CIN)
Overall ATS: 65-56-1 (53.7%)
No spread picks: 79-43 (64.8%)
Calling Underdog outright winner: 11-9 (55.0%), 13-7 ATS (65.0%)
This week’s picks (will update as injury news hits or a big spread change):
BUF at JAX (-14.5)
The Computer says… BUF by 20.4 (a 5.9 spread differential)
The best team in football plays the worst…this is a low spread considering that.
DEN at DAL (-9.5)
The Computer says… DAL by 15.3 (a 5.8 spread differential)
I was shocked by The Computer calling for a blowout here, but there are two teams that have .500-ish records that The Computer hates for the past couple weeks: Atlanta and Denver.
If Dak is back, Dallas wins big. If Dak is out, then this line will drop some…and we’ll still go with Dallas over Denver. Trading Von Miller should provide negative energy for the Broncos this week.
*SURVIVOR PICK* Risky but I don't want to use Indy, when I can use them v. JAX next week. If Dallas doesn't have Dak, this is shaky...but I still think Dallas is way too good for DEN, and Von Miller traded stomps on Denver's heart.
LAC (-1.5) at PHI
The Computer says… LAC by 3.9 (a 5.4 spread differential)
The computer likes LAC as a pick in general but add the momentum to it and it really likes it – the momentum of the odds that the Chargers lose three in-a-row and the Eagles win two in-a-row are not good. Philly beating Detroit shouldn’t really change their direction, but we live in a world where whatever happened last week is the new reality…for a week…
*UPDATE: Taking down due to two LAC starting CBs down.
TEN at LAR (-7.5)
The Computer says… LAR by 12.4 (a 4.9 spread differential)
First game without Derrick Henry is LA, the fast-track surface on a Sunday night – bad set up for the wobbly Titans post-Henry injury.
LV (-3.0) at NYG *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT WIN*
The Computer says… NYG by 1.0 (a 4.0 spread differential)
The Giants are a good football team and are in a must-win here. If they could get back Saquon this would be a lock. If they have Golladay-Toney, then I feel good. Minus all those guys, then I’m not as confident and would take this to a LV win projection but taking the points with NYG. No Barkley-Golladay-Toney and this comes out of the top five
BLAZING FIVE ABOVE
NYJ at IND (-10.5)
The Computer says… IND by 6.8 (a 3.7 spread differential)
The Jets have momentum and a new spark, and I would not be shocked if they didn’t upset Indy here. The Jets have a better defense and if White does what he did last week, they’ll stay within 10.
MIN at BAL (-6.0)
The Computer says… BAL by 2.6 (a 3.4 spread differential)
The Vikings could have won all their games they lost so far this season. Minus 6 is a lot of points here with a decent MIN team.
GB at KC (-7.0)
The Computer says… KC by 4.7 (a 2.3 spread differential)
Jordan Love is pretty good…saw it in the preseason, shockingly. Debut/new start QBs have been a great trend to go with – so, go with it here against a bad KC team.
HOU at MIA (-6.5)
The Computer says… MIA by 4.8 (a 1.7 spread differential)
Two bad teams, just taking the points with one of them. Although, every time I do that with the Texans…it hasn’t worked lately…but that’s also them playing top teams and getting 2-3 scores worth of points.
CLE at CIN (-3.0)
The Computer says… CIN by 0.9 (a 1.6 spread differential)
My gut tells me the Browns win if they really have ditched OBJ…it’s addition by subtraction. If Donovan Peoples-Jones is practicing in full by end of week…I feel better.
NE (-3.5) at CAR
The Computer says… NE by 3.9 (a 0.4 spread differential)
It’s a lot of points to give a solid enough Carolina team at home in a pivotal game for both teams. If CMC is out, then maybe this is go-with-NE. The Pats are coming on strong.
*SWITCH to NE due to Darnold worries and PJ Walker is not good.
CHI at PIT (-6.5)
The Computer says… PIT by 6.6 (a 0.1 spread differential)
We don’t trust Chicago at all, but we don’t trust PIT either. Just taking the points ‘because’.
*UPDATE: Switching to PIT due to Bears down several defenders, potentially
ARI (-1.0) at SF
The Computer says… ARI by 1.4 (a 0.4 spread differential)
This is assuming Colt McCoy at QB, and he’s decent enough. Again, the trend in the NFL in 2021…go with the first-time starting/emergency QB start.
ATL at NO (-6.0)
The Computer says… NO by 6.3 (a 0.3 spread differential)
This is assuming Taysom Hill at QB. If not, then I’m going with ATL.
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